It all comes down to this in an all-Spanish World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19 at 3pm EST. The defending champs Argentina look for their 2nd-straight title and the 4th all-time, while Spain are into the final for the just the second time ever, having won in their only other trip to the final in 2010. Let’s break down the teams and make out Spain vs Argentina predictions.
Spain vs Argentina Odds
Here’s a breakdown for the top betting odds between Spain vs Argentina.
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
| Spain to lift trophy | -163 |
| Argnetina to lift trophy | +130 |
| Spain moneyline | +125 |
| Argentina moneyline | +270 |
| Draw | +200 |
Spain are the odds-on favorites at -163 at Bet365 to lift the trophy by any means, while they’re +125 to win in regulation.
Spain Preview
It’s fair to say Spain grew into this tournament. Always one of the favorites, big things were expected. But they started slow, drawing Cabo Verde 0-0. Though from what we saw from the Africans later, they proved to be an underrated side.
Blowing out Saudi Arabia 4-0 was more like the Spain we expected. But it was a mixed bag from there with a close 1-0 over Uruguay, 3-0 over Austria, and then 1-0 and 2-1 wins over Portugal and Belgium. Both of those wins were moments away from going to extra-time with super sub Mikel Merino scoring in the 91’ and 88’ minutes.
Having not given up a single goal for 649 minutes, and just 1 overall heading into the semis with France, there was little to say against their structure and defense. But offensively, they seemed to be doing just enough to get by, and superstar Lamine Yamal still had only 1 goal.
Spain were rightful underdogs to get to the final, but certainly, if anyone was to slow down the French attack it was them. And they did. Masterfully.
With Yamal fouled in the box early, Mikel Oyarzabal stepped up to the spot and scored a PK to give Spain an early lead. It was his team-leading 5th goal of the tournament. Spain suffocated the French attackers the rest of the game, scored their second goal through Pedro Porro in the 58’ and went on to win 2-0, scoring on both shots on target, holding France to just 4, and completely shut down Mbappe allowing him only 3 shot attempts and none on target.
Spain held France to an xG of just 0.3, which was their lowest total in any World Cup match since Opta started tracking the stats in 1966.
Spain is 6-1-0 overall in the World Cup and have outscored opponents 13-1. They’ve kept clean sheets in 7 of their past 8 World Cup games going back to last tournament.
Go back over their most recent 11 matches and it’s just 3 goals conceded. Overall, La Roja is undefeated in regulation in 37 games, with their last competitive loss being 47 games back in March 2023.
Oyarzabal has 1+ shot on target in 13/14 and his shots on target totals this tournament have been 1, 3, 0, 4, 1, 1, and 1.
Lamine Yamal has been back in the starting lineup and has 8 shots on target in his last 4 games, but none last game.
While they’re not racking up shots on target, players like Alex Baena and Dani Olmo, regularly take multiple shot attempts.
Argentina Preview
Argentina were one of three perfect teams in the Group Stage. They’ve obviously still yet to lose but the Knockout Rounds have been anything but easy, even though they didn’t face anyone in ranked in the top 15 until England (4th) in the semis.
- Tied 2-2 with Cabo Verde in extra-time until a winning goal from an own goal
- Down 2-0 to Egypt before storming back in the final 10 mins to again win 3-2
- Tied 1-1 with SUI and needing ET and SUI to be playing a man down to win 3-1
- And then down 1-0 to ENG and again needing late goals to steal the win
In that England match, it was tied at half. Anthony Gordon gave England a 1-0 lead at the 55-minute mark and England looked to be in good shape. But, as too many teams seem to do, England and Thomas Tuchel seemed to be too scared to go for the final blow. Gordon was subbed off. England sat back and absorbed wave after wave of Argentina attacks, and dodged a couple bullets with shots off of the post, until the walls caved in and Messi provided 2 assists to Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez in the 85’ and 92’ to again fight back and win 2-1.
After scoring in 5 straight World Cup matches this tournament, and 9 overall when going back to last, Messi has now been held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games. But, he’s still scored or assisted in every match and leads the Golden Boot race with 8 goals and 4, assists, tied in goals with Mbappe. His 34 shots attempts ranks 1st, and 18 shots on target rank 2nd.
Messi is the clear leader in the clubhouse with 8, but Matinez (3), Fernandez (2), and 5 others with 1 have contributed.
Argentina have lost just 1 of 21 games and just 3 in 36. It’s now 14 straight wins (but 12-2-0 in regulation) where they’ve also scored multiple goals in 11/13 in regulation and at least 1 in 14 straight. But, their defense is certainly showing some holes, having conceded 7 goals in 5 games, and at least 1 in each of those 5.
Spain vs Argentina Head-to-Head
Both teams have 6 all-time wins and then there’s been 2 draws.
But the last meeting was in 2018, a 6-1 Spain win in a friendly. And the last and only World Cup meeting was a 2-1 win for Argentina in 1966. Every other match has been a friendly.
Spain vs Argentina Best Bets
Typically, finals in most competitions are close. However the last two World Cup Finals have seen plenty of goals. In 2018 France won 4-2. In 2022, this Argentina team was tied 2-2 with France in regulation, then 3-3 after extra-time and then won in penalties.
But before that, bets on Under 2.5 went 4-0 and 6-1.
We’ll get to the winner in a moment. But an alternative prop is to get on second half goals. Spain has scored 10 of their 13 goals in the second half.
And Argentina has scored 13 of their 19 goals in the second half. But we can go further with Argentina as most of their early goals came in the Group Stage. More recently, 10 of their past 12 goals have been scored in the 79’ minute or later.
A second half goal only pays (-350) for either team, but could be a good SGP leg. Or maybe a bet on a goal in the final 10 plus stoppage time would pay out nicely.
I’ve been maintaining that I liked France to win the title, but if anyone could stand in their way it would likely be Spain. I felt the winner of the title would be the winner of that France/Spain game. I still feel that way, but man, you can not count out this Argentina team.
Spain might not be flashy this tournament but they’ve been efficient and found a way to take Mbappe and all of the French attackers out of the game. Against an older and slower Argentine team, you would think that their passing and possession will wear them out. Especially considering the extra time Argentina has needed to play in multiple games.
Spain likely won’t sit back against Argentina like others have done. And we’ve seen when you attack Argentina, they concede. They’ve been conceding to everyone. And if England had kept attacking maybe they would have scored again and they’d be in this final instead.
Argentina should have a physical advantage, and with Messi anything is possible. And there cannot be a more resilient team this tournament. They’ve been down and out multiple times and keep fighting back so won’t get discouraged if Spain scores first.
But if Spain does score first, and forces Argentina to come out and play early, and Spain keeps attacking, they could pick apart this Argentine defense.
- THE BETS:
- Best Bet: BTTS -110
- Winner/SGP: Spain trophy and over 1.5 (+120)
- Longshot: Spain trophy, Messi goal or assist, goal in second half (+450)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
