The betting odds for the 2026 World Cup third place game between France and England are favoring Kylian Mbappe and Les Bleus to finish in the top three for the third straight World Cup over Harry Kane and England.
France vs England Odds
Here’s a breakdown for the top betting odds between France and England.
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
| France to win third | -205 |
| England to win third | +165 |
| France moneyline | -114 |
| England moneyline | +285 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -200 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | +170 |
France opened around even-money in the third place game odds, but have seen the odds shift in their favor on the moneyline to -114. That gives them an implied probability of 53.3% to win in regulation. Those odds increase dramatically to -200 to win over extra-time or penalties, upping their probability to 66.7%.
When it comes to the France vs. England total, goals are expected with the Over 2.5 heavily juiced to -200. Over 3.5 sits at +117.
France: Perfect Streak Ends Against Spain
Through six games, no team looked better than Didier Deschamps’ Les Bleus. France blew through their opponents, outscoring them 16-2. As odds-on favorites to advance in the semifinals against European champions Spain, many saw France as the likely team to move on.
But it wasn’t to be. France picked the worst time to have their worst game, and Spain has to be complimented for completely shutting down Mbappe and the entire French attacking unit.
Spain scored on both of their shots on target, and held France to only four. In fact, most of those shots allowed came late and Spain’s trademark possession and defensive style prevailed over the high-flying France attack. France’s xG of 0.3 was their lowest total in any World Cup match since Opta started tracking the stats in 1966.
Being shut out versus Spain is the only time they’ve not scored in their last 20 overall matches.
Mbappe is still tied for the most goals with eight alongside Messi, but is second with fewer assists. Therefore, this game certainly has meaning for him. He has 33 shots and 19 on target and had scored in 12 straight competitive international matches for France before the game with Spain.
Michael Olise still leads all players in the tournament in the assists department with five, and Ousmane Dembele has also been a good shot prop bet with 18 shots and eight on target.
England: Concedes Stoppage Time Winner to Argentina
It also took to the seventh game for England to suffer their first defeat of the tournament in the semifinals. They were 4-2-0 through regulation and had several close calls to reach the semis against reigning champs Argentina.
England started well, were tied 0-0 at the half, and then took the lead through Anthony Gordon in the 55’ minute. From then on the tables turned. Argentina was forced to crank up the attack, Gorden was subbed off, England sat back and tried to defend, and the dam finally broke in the final ten minutes. Argentina drew level in the 85’ and then scored the winner in the 92’, both created and assisted by Messi.
In the World Cup, England is now 4-2-1 in regulation and has outscored opponents 14-8. Their last four games have all seen both teams scoring and while they’ve scored in six of seven, they’ve only shut out Ghana and Panama.
Go further back before the tournament and they’ve scored at least once in 29/31 overall matches and their overall form sees them at 19-2-3.
England player props should focus on Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham. They’ve both scored six and are still alive in the Golden Boot race. Gordon and Marcus Rashford are the only other members of the Three Lions to have found the back of the net, and just once each.
France vs. England Best Bets
Third Place games at the World Cup have been relatively high-scoring. Last tournament Croatia beat Morocco 2-1. Both teams have scored in nine of the past 12 and there’s been three or more goals in 11/12. The only time there’s been fewer than three in that time was when England lost 2-0 to Belgium in 2018.
Perhaps third place games have a bit less pressure and are conducive to more open games. Roster changes can also be made as some backups are given a chance. If you believe that, a bet on a high-scoring game could be an option.
But England has also lost each of their last seven World Cup knockout round matches to teams ranked in the top ten since 1998; not good news versus France, who have recently dropped from first to third.
Both teams will be disappointed to be in this game. But Mbappe can still win the Golden Boot, France can send Deschamps off on a high with at least third place, and they’ll have one extra day of rest compared to England. So for my France vs. England picks I’m backing France on the moneyline and Mbappe to contribute.
- THE BET: France moneyline and Mbappe goal or assist (+150) at Bet365.
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
