Saturday, July 25, sees a huge slate of 15 games for MLS Matchday 18. Let’s dive into 5 of them for today’s best MLS picks, props and parlays.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Prediction
It’s a big rivalry match here, Hell is Real pitting together the two Ohio clubs. Last year they played 5 times, twice in the regular season and then 3 times in the playoffs. Results: 1-1, 4-2 CLB, 1-0 CIN, 4-0 CLB and 2-1 CIN to advance in the playoffs.
A road team has won just 1/6 and 3/17, while home teams have scored in all but 1 of the past 16. So like many rivalries, the home field has given some advantage.
It’s one that Columbus will need. They lost 2-1 on Wednesday at home to NYC and only scored on a PK in the 93’ minute. The Crew are just 11th in the East at 4-4-8. They’d gone 2-1-0 before the break so will be eager to get back to picking up points. They’ve scored in 14 of 15 overall matches, but have conceded in 6/8. But before the break, they had back-to-back shut out wins. The offense should be boosted by the addition of DP forward Brais Mendez who just helped Real Sociedad win the Copa del Rey. He’s also played with Celta Vigo. He didn’t played on Wednesday, but maybe he plays some minutes this weekend. They also added Ivorian defender Eric Bailly during the break, who also didn’t play Wednesday.
Expecting anyone to get shut out in a Cincinnati game is hard to bet on though. Their games already averaged the most goals per game and that number soared to 5.0 after Wednesday’s 4-3 win over Vancouver. They’ve both scored and allowed 40 goals in just 16 games. Versus Vancouver, Bucha had 2 and each of Denkey and Evander added another. In a wild start, the game was 3-2 for Cincy at the half.
Look at other Cincy scores and you’ll see scoreline of 6-2, 3-3, 5-3, 2-2, 3-2, 2-0, 4-4, 3-3 and obviously many other high-scoring games. With each having 10 goals, to go with 2 and 7 assists, Denky and Evander respectively are always worth prop bets.
- MLS Picks: BTTS or BTTS and Over 2.5.
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami Prediction
Miami are 2nd in the East while Montreal are 13th, so the +120 money on Miami to win does look tempting. But Messi and De Paul are likely still out (plus 6 others either injured or on international duty) and Miami found a way to keep things interesting against Chicago this week. Luis Suarez stepped up with 2 big goals, but they also had an embarrassing own goal and were tied 2-2 until youngest Preston Plambeck was in the right place at the right time to kick in the winner in the 87’.
Miami games are right behind Cincy’s for highest GPG averages at 4.5. Miami has now won 5 straight, but all in wild fashion — 3-2, 6-4, 2-0, 5-3 and 4-2. They had lost 4-3 before that the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 9-3 in their past 12. Whenever midfielder Casemiro gets into the lineup, maybe some of that stabilizes.
It’s the opposite for Montreal who are winless in 5. Since the World Cup they’ve played twice, in two close games though, a 0-0 with Toronto and a 1-0 loss to Nashville, in which they only conceded through a 68’ minute PK. With Prince Owusu, who has 9 goals, they’ll always have a chance to score, and Miami usually gives up chances.
Miami has won the last 3 between them, 4-1, 4-2, and 3-2. Montreal won the two before that 3-2 and 1-0, so have kept games interesting vs this opponent.
- MLS Picks: BTTS
- Parlay Picks: Both BTTS (+103)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
Orlando City vs Nashville SC Prediction
This is probably the highlight match on the slate. While it may not look it, with Nashville being 1st in the East and in the Supporters’ Shield, and Orlando being down in 10th in the East, but this is a newly invigorated Orlando team.
The Lions returned from the break in high spirits after signing Antoine Griezmann. They went to San Jose, one of the better teams in MLS this season and dominated, winning 4-0, to go with an MLS debut goal for Griezmann, his 300th in his career. He created a game-high 5 chances, while Atuesta had 3 assists.
Considering Orlando games also average 4.4 GPG, I had liked the BTTS & Over 2.5 in that game, but San Jose never got going. Orlando had already been improving before the break with wins in 4/7. They’ve now scored 29 goals in their past 10, but had also lost 6-2 before the break and have conceded in 10 straight before shutting out San Jose.
Nashville will pose a different challenge, who are winners are 5 straight, outscoring opponents 10-3, mostly lower-scoring games. They’ve won both games since the break by 1-0 scores, and both coming late, first with a 79’ minute goal over Atlanta, and then a 68’ minute PK over Montreal. Orlando, given their renewed spirits, will be a tougher challenge as well.
Both teams had big home wins last year of 5-1 Nashville and 3-2 Orlando. That trend continued this season with Nashville winning 5-0 at home in March. There’s been 3+ goals in each of the past 6 matches between them and 5+ in each of the past 4. In this year’s match, Nashville held Orlando to 1 shot on target, and Sam Surridge produced a hat-trick.
Orlando will be looking for some revenge from earlier this season, and Griezmann will be making his home debut. With Mukhtar and Surridge on the other side, and Orlando’s typical propensity for conceding, this should be exciting. The one caveat I see against goals, is that Nashville’s games have been tight and both are missing some key players with Martin Ojeda for Orlando with a thigh injury and Christian Espinoza for Nashville with a lower body injury. Ojeda is a huge loss for Orlando as he has 11 goals and no one else has more than 2 — but 12 others have scored.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Griezmann 1+ sot (-105)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
LAFC vs SKC Prediction
Definitely one of the mismatches of the round, 3rd in the West LAFC, hosts 15th SKC as huge -400 favourites.
Last year LAFC won 2-0 and 3-1, have won the 5, are undefeated in 10 matches at 8-2-0 and have outscored SKC 23-5 in that time. Every season is different but there’s been nothing we’ve seen this season to expect a different result.
LAFC won before the break and came out of the World Cup break with two impressive wins of 3-0 and 3-1. What’s even better, is Son finally got the monkey off of his back by scoring his first and second goals of the season, in each game. Of course I like Son or Bouanga for shots or goals, though the SOT prop doesn’t change the odds much. They’ve both scored in each game back so far.
SKC has also had two games, first losing 3-2 to St. Louis and then beating Minnesota 2-1. With other recent scores being 2-1, 2-1 and 3-1 the BTTS and Over 2.5 has been the way to go.
Only Orlando has given up more goals than SKC, while they’re 18 GF is the 2nd-fewest in MLS.
Jovelic is always capable of a goal, but I can only look to some sort of SGP with LAFC.
- MLS Picks: LAFC to win and score over 1.5
Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Prediction
In what is clearly the theme of these MLS picks, and what will likely be the case most matchdays, I’ve found some more teams where I can see goals coming from.
It’s the second meeting this season with RSL winning in Salt Lake 2-0 in May. That match could’ve been an even bigger win with RSL holding the shots edge at 20-8 and 15-2. But goals came early, in the 10’ and 28’ minutes.
Timbers games average 3.8 GPG (most in the West), while RSL’s average 3.3. Those numbers rise in Portland home games to 4.1, while staying at 3.3 in RSL road games.
Since coming out of the World Cup break, Portland beat Seattle 5-1 and drew Dallas 2-2, both under new coaches, first an interim, and then new coach Marti Cifuentes, an ex-Leicester City coach.
They’ve scored 16 goals in 6 games, but have also allowed 10 goals in 5 games. At home, they’ve scored in every game this season. In the player prop department, Kevin Kelsy has 3 goals in 2 games and 1+ shot on target in 8 straight games. If you just want to look at shot attempts Kristoffer Velde has never not taken a shot attempt all season and has multiple 13/15 and 6 straight. But he didn’t play vs Seattle and only played 36 minutes vs Dallas.
RSL struggled away to LAFC, losing 3-1. They were 3-1-1 before the break though and have scored in 7 straight and 13/14. They also conceded in 13/15 overall games this season, and the two times they didn’t, were both home games. They’re on the road here.
- MLS Picks: BTTS
- Parlay Picks: LAFC to win and score over 1.5 / POR vs RSL btts (-108) ADD Kelsy 1+ sot (+144)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
