It’s two game weeks in one week. We’re right back at it with MLS Week 26 predictions on Saturday and Sunday with 12 games on Saturday and 3 more on Sunday. Sometimes when I’m making these MLS picks, I think I bet too many BTTS bets. But it was 8-5 last weekend and then on Wednesday it was 11-3, as only 3 teams didn’t score. There were also 11 games where there were 3 or more goals. Today, I’ll look at 8 games this week, and cover several more where I see some goals, as well as player prop opportunities, and parlay bets,
MLS Picks #1
Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Prediction
These teams meet as often as MLB teams it seems. They just played in August, a huge 4-1 win in Nashville for the Yotes where Surridge had 2 to go with 1 each from Mukhtar and Najar. They also played in this year’s CCC, both draws, 0-0 and 1-1, seeing Nashville move on with away goals. And they played 5 times last year with Miami being 4-0-1. BTTS is 10-2 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 9-3.
It’s definitely the biggest game this weekend, with Nashville 1st in the East and Miami second, though there’s a big gap with 9 points between them as Nashville storms towards the record, held by Miami, for the most points in a season.
However, away in Toronto on Wednesday, Nashville’s only goal was an own goal and they created well under 1.0 xG and gave up the winning goal late to lose 2-1. That’s their only loss in 6 since Leagues Cup, but they also failed to score vs NYC the game prior in a 0-0 draw. It’s clean sheets in 3/5 though.
Surridge’s goals aren’t coming as often as earlier in the season but he has 1+ SOT in 6/7 MLS games. Mukhtar has 8 SOT in 5 games,
After a big loss to Nashville last time and this one being in Miami, a revenge angle could be the way to play this. But then Miami’s only win in 8 games was a smackdown of Montreal. Since it’s been two draws of 2-2 and 1-1. BTTS is now 10-0 and BTTS & Over 9-1 in recent weeks for Miami games. Those types of trends go much further back all season too.
Of course, Messi, Suarez, Berterame can always be targeted in props. Messi has a G or A in 7/10. But it’s Casemiro with goals in 3 straight and a SOT in 4 straight.
I’ve parlay high-scoring Miami games with something else and had the other game lose a few times, so let’s just use this game alone.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Over (-175) add Messi sot or g/a is about -130 to -140
- Or BTTS & Over 2.5 + Messi and Surridge 1+ SOT (+100)
MLS Picks #2
DC United vs Atlanta United Prediction
DC had their game last weekend delayed due to weather, but returned to play on Wednesday vs Columbus and won 2-1. Tai Baribo scored both goals, and has been incredibly consistent. Barb has 11 goals in 11 games, and at least 1 in 6 of his last 7 games.
DC as a team though picked up just their second win in 12 games. A 0-0 draw with LAFC two games back is their only clean sheet in 12 games.
They’ll host another inconsistent team in Atlanta. The Five Stripes were winless in 8. Then won three in a row by 2-1 scores. But have since lost 2-0, drew 2-2 and then lost 3-2 to Orlando on Wednesday. One on hand, they’ve scored exactly 2 goals in 6/7, but on the other, they’ve not kept a clean sheet since the USCO in April, and not in MLS March.
Based on all of these stats, it’s hard to not bet on goals, except for their recent head-to-head history which was 0-0 and 1-1 last year and then another 0-0 this year but back in March.
- MLS Picks: BTTS and Baribo 1+ SOT (-125)
Sporting KC vs LAFC Prediction
Even scoring 3 goals wasn’t enough for SKC to end their winless run that is now at 7 games (0-1-6) as they lost 4-3 to Dallas last week. It was the first time they’d scored multiple goals in 6 games, but now the 6th time in 7 games game they’ve given up more than 1. During this winless run they’ve been outscored 18-5. Still. Still. Not in any game this season have they kept a clean sheet.
They didn’t played Wednesday so will at least have the rest advantage here.
When they last played LAFC they were routed 4-0. Historically this has been one of the worst opponents for SKC, going 0-2-9 and outscored 27-5 in recent years.
LAFC haven’t been in the best form either. They were winless in 6 until beating the New York Red Bulls 2-0 on Wednesday, with goals from youngster Jude Terry and also Amanda Sieb. LA have generally been lower-scoring, going 9-1 to Under 2.5 totals.
LAFC should win. -150 looks almost too easy considering they’ve not been in top form.
- MLS Picks: LAFC double chance
- Parlay Picks: DC vs ATL btts & Baribo SOT / LAFC double chance (+112)
MLS Picks #3
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC Prediction
It was 2-2 back in May and Charlotte has gotten the edge lately being 3-2-0. But a road team has just 1 win in 8 all-time meetings.
The Crown do have points in 6/11 road game this year at 4-2-5 They just won on the road on Wednesday, 2-1 in Montreal and have points in 3 straight road matches. Charlotte is in top form right now as well, being 4-2-0 in their last 6 matches outscoring opponents 13-6. In 5 of those 6 Charlotte has scored 2 or 3 goals.
Liel Abada only has 4 MLS goals this season but in his last 3 games he has 2 goals, 10 shots, 6 shots on target. Idan Markovich has goals in every other game lately as well with 3 in 5 games.
All season Cincy has been a near-lock in the BTTS department and for Overs. The Overs are still hitting, mostly, but they’ve now been shut out 5-0 and 4-0 in their last two. But taking a red card early against Philly on Wednesday set them at a big disadvantage. That means Nwobodo is out for this one, plus, Evander is out as well with yellow card accumulation.
But, they have only 1 win in 6 overall matches and have scored more than 1 goal only once in their last 6. Cincinnati is still conceding plenty, now doing so in 6 straight and 15/16.
By itself, you could try for Charlotte to score and Abada to have a shot at -150.
- MLS Picks: CHA to score and Abada SOT
Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
Despite bringing in several new players to combat the departure of many others, this Crew team is struggling to adjust and now have just 1 win across their last 8 overall games. Wednesday was a 2-1 loss to DC and they’ve given up multiple goals in 6/7 (15 total) in that time. With goals scored in themselves in 16/17, only failing during America in the Leagues Cup, they’ve been a solid BTTS team. Santiago Rodriguez just joined in the transfer window, and has a goal in both games, to go with 6 shots and 3 on target. He’s +160 to score here, but unfortunately Bet365 hasn’t listed him in the shot prop categories yet.
The Red Bulls aren’t scoring often, or else they could be in a similar both. On Wednesday they were shut out 2-0 to LAFC and they’ve scored just 2 goals in their last 5 games. Only once in 9 have they scored more than 1 goal in a game. Over the course of the entire season, they’ve managed just 2 clean sheets. And in MLS have allowed the 4th-most shots on target. This, maybe this is a Columbus spot. New York is in about as bad of form as the Crew, now winless in 6 with 1 win in 9.
New York won at home 3-2 in May, but getting another win on the road may be hard based on history. A road team in this matchup has only won 2/11. There’s been 3+ goals though in 8/10.
This parlay will be creative.
- MLS Picks: CLB double chance and over 1.5 match goals
- Parlay Picks: CHA to score & Abada 1+ SOT / CLB double chance and O1.5 goals (+127)
MLS Picks #4
FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers Prediction
Dallas went back on the road Wednesday and got 3 points vs Minnesota in a 2-1 win.
Dallas games have been pretty open lately and even ended 4-3 at home to SKC last weekend. It was 3-3 before that. Since the Leagues Cup they’re 4-1-1 and their games have seen 3, 7, 5, 6, 7 and 3 goals. Petar Musa didn’t play with a shoulder injury, but he might be back this weekend, and he’s tied with Messi in the Golden Boot race.
Portland conceded just 1 minute in vs St. Louis, and were down 2-1 with just minutes remaining before Velde scored his second of the night on his birthday to rescue a point in a 2-2 draw. Velde has 4G/2A in 5 games and at least 1+ SOT in 9/11 MLS games.
It was one of many Portland games that have been filled with goals this season. They also won 5-4 last weekend and the BTTS is 14-0, while BTTS & Over 2.5 is 13-1 in all comps.
Dallas has scored at least twice vs Portland in 4/5 meetings, including both times last year, a 2-0 win and 2-2 draw. This year they drew 2-2 again in Portland in July. In that one, Delgado and Musa scored for Dallas, while Kelsy and Mora scored for Portland, and neither of those players are still with the Timbers.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5
St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United Prediction
St. Louis just missed out on 3 points coughing up the tying goal in the 89’ to Portland for a 2-2 draw. But the undefeated streak continues, now at 15 games across all comps While they’ve scored multiple goals in 5/6, they’ve conceded in 7 in a row. During this 15-game run the BTTS is 12-3. While City have seen a few key players leave, new signing Rafa Navarro from Colorado made an instant impact with both goals on Wednesday.
If any team can stop St. Louis it may be Minnesota who have owned this match up winning 3-0, 3-2 and 2-1 last year, winning 5 straight and being 6-0-1 overall. There’s been at least 3 goals and often more, between them in each of the last 6.
But this is this year and this year the Loons are bad. They have 3 wins in all comps across 19, just 1 in 6 games and have conceded in 7 straight and 17/19. Lately, it’s been 10 GA in their last 3. I suppose the one positive is that they’ve been finding the scoresheet with goals in 7 straight and 13 scored in their last 4.
Kelvin Yebaoh leads the Loons with 12G/2A this season and in these last 4 games he has 4G/2A and 15 shots, 8 on target.
- MLS Picks: STL double chance
- Parlay Picks: DAL vs POR btts & O2.5 / STL double chance (+115), add Navarro SOT (+160)
MLS Picks #5
Sunday games:
-Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
-Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC
-San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union
San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Prediction
A 16th minute red card to doomed Cincy in their game away to Philly on Wednesday. The Union took a 2-0 lead at the half and went on to win 5-0, with a hat-trick from Damiani. Cavan Sullivan had 2 assists and now has 3G/2A in 4 games and 4G/5A in his last 7. The Sullivan brothers combined had 6 goal contributions in the game. Illoski scored as well and also has at least 1 SOT in 11/12 MLS games.
Philly is surging up the standings to 8th now in the East with 3 straight wins and an undefeated streak of 6 games since the Leagues Cup at 4-2-0. Defense is improving too with back-to-back clean sheets and just 4GA in 4 games, but … Cincy took a red and the other 3 are Montreal, the Red Bulls and Austin, not the high-scoring teams.
San Diego went down 3-1 at home to a previously struggling San Jose. Then their keeper, CJ dos Santos took a red, they cut it to 3-2 anyways, but despite some late pressure it ended in a 3-2 loss.
Their form is up and down at the moment with 2 straight losses but wins in 5/8 overall games. Getting shut out vs Orland last weekend is the only home game they’ve not scored in all season long in any competition.
Dreyer has 9G/10A and scored vs San Jose so is always in the running for a goal or assist.
Just twice in 15 have Philly not scored and both of those were to Mexican teams. But their last road clean sheet was the first game of the season away to Defence Force in the CCC.
I think this has the potential to be a high-scoring exciting game with the surging Union and San Diego being at home. San Diego games have also seen 5, 1, 4, 3 and 4 goals in recent weeks.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-150) OR add Illoski and Dreyer SOT (+130)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
