MLS Predictions, Picks & Parlays for Week 5

MLS Week 5 is here, so let’s break down our top soccer picks and MLS predictions for the weekend.

Last week saw 47 goals in 14 games good for 3.36 goals per match. That’s the MLS we like to see!

But this is not the week to get to crazy with lots of players away on international duty and you can find the full list on the MLS site.

Let’s get into this weekend’s top MLS predictions here.

MLS Predictions & Parlay Best Bets #1

St Louis City vs DC United Prediction

This will be the first-ever meeting between these cross-conference teams.

St. Louis sits 5th in the West at 1-3-0, are undefeated but have 3 draws in 4 games, scoring 8 and allowing 6.

They’ve scored multiple goals in all 3 games with a 3-3 draw in LAG last week, a 2-2 draw in Austin before that and 2-0 win at home to NYCFC in the first game.

Count the Concacaf Champions Cup (CCC) and they’ve scored in 5/6 but also conceded in 5/6 and bets on both teams to score “BTTS” is 4-2.

That NYC home win this year was their first home MLS win after 3 games without a win, but they were dominant at CITYPARK last year and in their history are 12-3-5 at home in MLS.

DC are 9th in the East at 1-2-1, scoring and allowing 6 goals so far.

They lost 3-1 at home to a Messi’less Miami last week and are winless in 3 and have just 1 win in 8 if you count pre-season. They drew 0-0 in Cincinnati and drew 2-2 in Portland and aren’t usually a strong road team with 0 wins in 7 and 2 wins in 14 in their most recent road MLS games.

As of now international absentees are not listed for St. Louis while DC has just four.

At 3.5 GPM, St. Louis games average the 2nd most in the West behind LAG and the 5th most in all of MLS. DC’s are averaging 3 GPM. Only Miami and the LA Galaxy have created a higher xG than DC and DC is 3rd behind those teams in shots on target too. But DC has also given up the 6th most shots on target.

I want to say BTTS, and both teams are top 6, St. Louis 5th and DC 6th in penalty areas touches. Though DC has 0 wins in their last 7 competitive road games going back to last season, and 0 in 10 counting preseason and has been shut out in 6/10.

Certainly, you could look to BTTS for bet odds or simply include St. Louis to score to Ovev 1.5 in this parlay.

• PICK: St. Louis vs DC Over 1.5

Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy Prediction

Two teams with 6 points meet here. LAG sitting 4th at 1-3-0 undefeated and SKC 6th at 1-3-0 as well.

Only the Chicago Fire are seeing more goals in their games than the LAG, at 4 GPM, Chicago is 4.3.

LA’s games have been 3-3, 2-2, 3-1 and 1-1.

But SKC too have seen BTTS go 3-1 with a 2-1 win last week, 0-0 beforehand and then two 1-1 draws. They’ve been in good form going back to last season at 10-3-4 in MLS and have scored in 14/17 recent games in MLS at Children’s Mercy Park.

Last year it was 2-2 in LA and 0-0 in SKC. In 2022 it was 2-2 in LA and 4-2 in KC. In fact SKC has scored 2 goals vs LA in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

As of now international absentees are not listed for LA, but all of their key attackers should be in the lineup. But they are down Martin Caceres on D who took a red card last week. At the same time, SKC has just one missing and not a key player.

Look, Galaxy games look like clear Overs until I see otherwise. This trend was evident for most of last season and it’s continued this season too. In MLS games BTTS is now 13-0 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 12-1 in that time. Go back further and BTTS is 18-2 in their last 20 games and BTTS & O2.5 is 17-3.

LA have the most shots on target and 2nd highest xG, always looks like scoring but the defense again looks shaky and will be travelling to a tough place to play in KC. You have to bet on goals in your Week 5 MLS predictions here.

• PICK: Both Teams to Score

MLS Parlay Picks: St. Louis vs DC Over 1.5 / SKC vs LA Galaxy BTTS (-116)

MLS Predictions & Parlay Best Bets #2

Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew Prediction

Both teams are probably where they should be right now. The champs, Columbus are 2nd in the East at 3-1-0 and undefeated, scoring 7 goals in those 4 games and only conceding 2.

Charlotte would have wanted more, but are still a third year team, who lost some players in the offseason. They’re 1-1-2. New DP Liel Abada won’t be debuting as he was called up by Israel. They’re also out defener Jere Uronen (Finland).

The Crew have a few more missing pieces including midfielders Taha Habroune and Aidan Morris, forward Jacen Russell-Rowe and two keepers Patrick Schulte and Nicholas Hagen.

Columbus won at home 4-2 versus Charlotte in the last meeting last season, but it was 1-0 in Charlotte. Otherwise, there have been 2-2, 1-1 and 0-0 draws in their history. That 1-0 loss last year was 1 of just 4 games where Columbus didn’t score last season over 46 games in all competitions.

Last year they also allowed a goal in 35/46. The defense has improved. Only allowing 2 goals in 4 MLS games, and include CCC and they have 3 clean sheets in 6 games and have only allowed 3 goals combined.

The scoring is still there. They’ve scored in all 6 games and now have scored in 48/52

Russel-Rowe has 2 goals and Morris 1, so they’ll be missed, but Cucho is still there, so too is Diego Rossi and Christian Ramirez, and Charlotte has conceded in each of their past 3 games. Important to note though that those were all on the road, and their 1 home game was a 1-0 win over NYCFC.

And at home, Charlotte has been lights out. In MLS they are undefeated in 10 and have just 1 loss in 16, scoring in 14/16 and keeping 6 clean sheets and 3 straight clean sheets.

Columbus is always a good bet, but on the road, missing some players, and maybe tired from CCC, I don’t want the win, just for them to score in my MLS predictions.

• PICK: Columbus to score

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

It’s been a good start for Vancouver, still undefeated at 2-1-0 and 2nd in West, scoring six goals and allowing just two.

RSL are sitting 8th in the West at 1-1-2, scoring 5 and also conceding 5. They were off last week on bye.

Last year RSL won both games 2-1 home and away and BTTS has hit in each of the last 5 meetings – 2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 2-1, 4-1.

In the last 9 meetings there has been 2+ goals in all 9, and 3+ goals in 8.

Vancouver has scored in all 3 games, and just came off 2 road wins. At home in MLS have scored in 19 of last 22, while on the road in MLS, RSL has just 2 wins in 10 and have conceded in 8/10.

Vancouver come home now for 4 games and is in a good spot to stay near the top of the conference after that stretch. They’re out Fafa Picault and Andres Cubas to international duty, but their top scorers are still there and can get one, while RSL are out Diego Luna which is a big loss if you wanted to bet on RSL in your MLS predictions.

• PICK: Vancouver to score

Portland Timbers vs Philadelphia Union Prediction

Cross-conference teams here at completely different spots in their respective tables.

Portland are off to strong start at 2-1-1, having scored 8, and allowing 5 goals.

Portland adds new DP forward Jonathan Rodriguez “Cabecita” from Club America to bolster their attack. He joins pending receipt of a visa so unsure if he’ll feature on Saturday. He had 108 goals and 27 assists in 277 appearances across all competitions for Club America.

The Timbers will be missing K Maxime Crepeau plus defenders Miguel Araujo and Kamal Miller, but Philadelphia is missing a ton of players. Eight players including Tai Baribo, Andre Blake, Jesus Bueno, Daniel Gazdag, Nathan Harriel, Damion Lowe, Jose Martinez and Jack McGlynn are on international duty so that is 1 keeper, 2 defenders, 4 midfielders and 1 forward.

So there are a lot of defenders and both starting keepers away here from both teams so we could see goals when making MLS predictions.

Philly is 1/6 teams still yet to win at 0-3-0, scoring 5 and allowing 5 goals so far.

Portland was shut out 1-0 in Houston last week but previous games saw tons of goals in a 2-1 win, 2-2 draw and 4-1 win. And the last game was the first time they failed to score in 13 games, having been shut out by Houston again the next-to-last-time in August in MLS, also on the road. They’ve not been shut out at home in 12 games.

Philly’s struggles aren’t just in MLS, add in CCC and they are 1-5-1 and winless in 6. They’ve conceded in 5/6, allowed multiple goals in 4/6, scored in 4/6 and BTTS is 4-2.

There were no games between them in 2023, but the last game was 2-0 Union road win in 2022. There has been 2+ goals in 9 straight meetings and 3+ in 7/8.

Portland is severely over-performing their xG with 8 goals on an xG of just 3.7, but let’s hope that continues here. They can get 1 goals at least for our MLS picks.

• PICK: Portland to score

MLS Parlay Picks: Columbus to score / Vancouver to score / Portland to score (-118)