All 4 UEL games this week are on Thursday, but one kicks off early at 12:45pm EST and the next 3, all at 3pm EST. We’ll break down each one for this week’s Europa League predictions for the quarterfinals here.
Celta Vigo vs Freiburg Prediction
In their first European quarterfinals, Freiburg edged closed to getting to their first semifinals, with a convingin 3-0 win in Leg 1 in Germany. They held the shots edge 12-3 and 6-0 on target and got goals from 3 different sources.
Freiburg had been playing in tons of low-scoring UEL games with scores of 1,0 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0, before a 5-1 win over Genk and then the Celta win. Their 6 goals allowed is a tournament-best.
It was a low-scoring win this weekend though, beating Mainz 1-0 in the Bundesliga and now in all comps, they’ve won 4/5, outscoring opponents 13-5. After conceding in 10 straight, they have back-to-back clean sheets.
For Celta, Leg 1 was their first UEL defeat after 6 games. In Spain, they’ve only lost 1/6 in the tournament, and last week is their only UEL game where they haven’t scored. So back at home, they may get back on the scoresheet. However, it was another 3-0 loss on the weekend away to Oviedo, giving them losses in 3/4 overall games and just 2 wins in 8.
This tie looks a bit out of reach for them to come back from but they could score, but with 12 goals conceded in 4 games and 1+ in 8/9, plus a few missing players in defense and mid, a clean sheet looks unlikely.
- UEL Picks: Both to Score (-134)
Real Betis vs Braga Prediction
Another Spanish team is in action, and Real Betis is all square with Portugal’s Braga after a 1-1 Leg 1 draw. Braga dominated possession (62%), but Betis put 6 shots on target to Braga’s 3. Braga scored early in the 5’ minute, and Betis tied it with a Cucho PK in the 61’.
Betis aren’t in the best overall form. They drew again this weekend, 1-1 with Osasuna, their 3rd straight draw, 4th draw in 6 games and to give them an overall record of 1-6-3 in their last 10.
But their home UEL games have seen them go 4-1-0, while scoring multiple times in each one.
Braga won in Portugal this weekend 1-0, giving them just 2 losses across their last 9 matches. They’ve also scored in 11/12, but not more than once in any of their last 4. Go all the way back into UEL qualifying, and they’ve been nearly impossible to beat, losing only 2/17. Many of those have been low-scoring, with Under 2.5 being 6-1 in recent rounds.
This is another match that could see both teams scoring (-125), or maybe another draw (+260).
But considering Braga’s low-scoring matches, plus the fact the Under 2.5 has gone 6-2 in all comps for Betis, let’s back the Under 2.5.
- UEL Picks: Under 2.5 (-110)
Nottingham Forest vs Porto Prediction
This is another matchup that ended 1-1 last week. Porto scored early in the 11’ but an OG in the 13’ levelled things and nothing changed despite Porto creating plenty of chances and outshooting Forst 14-4 and 8-2 on target. Last week was in Portugal and this one switches to England. They played in England in the League Phase and Forest won 2-0.
Forest are battling on a couple of key fronts, trying to progress in UEL, while also trying to avoid relegation in the EPL. Right now they’re 16th and 3 points above the drop, helped by a 1-1 draw with Villa this weekend. Forest have been scrapping out points with a ton of draws lately with draws in regulation in 4/5, being undefeated in this 5 and only giving up 3 goals in that time.
Playing at home hasn’t always been automatic for Forest this tournament, having lost both home legs vs Fenerbahce and Midtjylland in previous knockout rounds. An in all comps, Forest is just 1-5-5 at City Ground.
But Forest has Igor Jesus who co-leads the UEL with 7 goals and Morgan Gibbs-White who is 5th in shots on target, so they have some capable pieces on offense.
Porto is still out top scorer Samu Aghehowa, but they won 3-1 back in the league this weekend.
The loss to Forest earlier in the League Phase is Porto’s only defeat in this competition being 5-3-0 since. Their goals have come early, scoring 12/18 goals in the tournament in the 1st half. There is a very dubious record to note for Porto as they’re an abysmal 0-3-21 in road games in England in European tournaments.
And if we look at the whole of the season, that Forest loss, 1 loss to Casa Pia in Portugal back on February 2 and another in the Cup to Sporting in March, are their only 3 losses all season. Across all comps they’re undefeated in 8, have 1 loss in 12, have scored multiple goals in 8/10 and have only failed to score 1 time since October 23.
Another close game where both teams score looks possible. So I like the Draw (+220) or BTTS (-106).
- UEL Picks: Both to Score (-106)
Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction
And this one was another lopsided result in Leg 1. Villa led 1-0 at half, then 2-0, and then some late goals by Bologna in the 90’ and a second Ollie Watkins goal in the 94’ made it 3-1 Villa.
That makes Villa 2-0-0 this year vs Bologna, winning 1-0 in the League Phase as well, and 3-0-0 all-time having won 2-0 in the UCL last year.
Villa have been next to perfect in Europa, with only 1 loss in 11 and now wins in 8 straight. They’ve scored in all 11 games, and 2+ in 7/11.
They could only draw Forest 1-1 this weekend in the EPL but that makes them undefeated in 4 games and 4-1-1 in their last 6. Only once in 12 games have they not found the back of the net.
Bologna got a win this weekend, 2-0 over Lecce and are mostly in good form with wins in 4/6, 9/13 and just 3 losses in regulation in 14 games. Just once in those 14 have they not scored.
Bologna had also been hard to beat in the tournament, previously having not lost in UEL since Matchday 1 of the League Phase. While they’ve now given up 3 goals in back-to-back tournament games, they’ve scored in 9 straight.
Villa at home is a tough out, winning 8 straight in Europe and 15/17. They’ve also shut out five straight Italian opponents at Villa Park. They do have some missing pieces and perhaps keeper Emi Martinez who was out this weekend. Considering they’ve given up the most shots on target of the teams remaining, his absence could come into play.
BTTS (-143) or a Villa win (-163).
- UEL Picks: Villa win and Under 4.5 (-105)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
