Champions League Picks and Predictions | Matchday 1 | Sept 8-10

The Champions League returns this week and it’s a full week of games with 6 games spread out over each of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I’ve picked a few from each day to target for this week’s Champions League predictions and best bets for Matchday 1. 

UCL Tuesday Picks #1

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Prediction

Brugge are usually good for high-scoring games. That was the case in last year’s UCL where they finished 19th 3-0-0, and scored 15 got gave up 17. It continued in the playoff round where they went out vs Atleti after a 3-3 draw and 4-1 loss. 

In the Belgium league so far it’s a little lower-scoring, with none of their 5 games exceeding 3 goals so far. That’s mostly because they’ve only given up 2 in 5 games, while scoring 9 to be 4-0-1. Like Villa, Brugge sold many players this offseason, but did replace some. And, star forward Nicolo Tresoldi leads them with 3 goals. He also had 3 UCL goals last season. They did lose a key attacking piece this summer as Tzolis was sold to Arsenal. Virgili and Pots were the biggest additions from Mallorca and West Ham. 

They should have a slight rest advantage having not played since Friday. 

They played in and lost one Cup already, drawing 1-1 in the Belgian Super Cup and losing in PKs to Union. 

Villa are not off to a great start this season and have a ton of new players and even more who have departed. After shut defeats of 4-0 and 1-0, they finally got a point, but still couldn’t score against newly-promoted Hull, drawing 0-0 on Saturday. But it’s ugly than that. They had 0 SOT after 2 games, being just the 2nd EPL team since 2003/04 to do so and had just 1 SOT vs Hull. The next lowest in the EPL this season, has 7 SOT. 

These teams have met in the UCL before, with Brugge winning 1-0 at home in 2024 in the group stage and Villa winning 3-1 and 3-0 in 2025 in the Round of 16. 

Brugge have scored in 25 straight games and at home vs an out of form Villa, I think that continues. They’ve also scored 3+ goals in 6 of their last 7 home UCL games. To me the question is actually if Villa can score? They have kept nine clean sheets across their last 16 UEFA matches and have scored in all but one of the last 21. But this is a totally different squad.

• UCL Picks: Brugge to score

Porto vs Man City Prediction

Man City just finished top 8 last year in 8th at 5-1-2. That’s as far as they’d go getting knocked out by Real Madrid 3-0 and 2-1 after the playoff round. Porto reached the quarterfinals of the UEL and undefeated in 6 home games. That quarter-final exit though came at the hands at another EPL team, Nottingham Forest, a side far inferior to Man City. Still carrying over from last year’s quarterfinals, Porto are out defender Jan Bednarek with suspension. In midfield, Victor Froholdt is out after getting knocked out and taken to hospital this weekend.

This season, after 3 rounds in the EPL, they’re just edging Arsenal on goals scored for 1st overall, winning 2-1, 4-1, and 1-0. 

With 34 UCL goals in 39 games, and scoring his 300th career goal this weekend vs Coventry, a bet on Haaland scoring is never a bad one. Enzo Fernandez was transferred from Chelsea last week and made his debut this weekend already after Nico O-Reilly got injured in the warm-ups. Iliman Ndiaye also debuted as well. 

They meet another 1st-placed team in Porto who are a perfect 5-0-0, scoring 11 and giving up just 1 to be top of the pile in Portugal. Gabriel Veiga leads them with 3 goals; 12 shots, 6 on target. In all comps going back to last season, not counting pre-season, Porto have scored in 10 straight. 

Man City is 3-1-0 all-time but they last played in 2020. That last meeting was in Portugal and it was 0-0. Look at any English opposition and Porto only have 2 wins in 16 in recent years. 

City have already conceded to Palace and Bournemouth and away in Portugal that could happen again. They should win. Maybe City to win and BTTS. Though they could only get 1 vs Coventry.

• UCL Picks: BTTS
• Parlay Picks: CB to score / POR vs MCI btts (+108)

UCL Tuesday Picks #2

Real Madrid vs Inter Milan Prediction

In what could easily be a UCL Final between 2 teams among the favourites to win it all, we get it on Matchday 1 of the League Phase. In an odd quirk, Mourinho won the Champions League with Inter at the Bernabéu in 2010, with Chivu, Inter’s coach starting that final.

Both finished just outside of the top 8 and needed the playoffs last year, finishing with identical 5-0-3 records. Inter were shocked in the next round to Bodo/Glimt losing both legs 3-1 and 2-1. Madrid advanced past Benfica, then Man City and eventually fell to Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. 

In 6 all-time UCL meetings Madrid is 5-0-1. The last game was in 2021 and the last 3 have been close at 2-0, 1-0 and 2-0. 

The good times in the Jose Mourinho Era 2.0 came to an end on Friday. After wins of 2-1, 4-1 and 4-0, they fell short 1-0 to Betis, with Mbappe’s missed PK late-on seeing them miss out on at least 1 point. That puts them behind Barcelona, and more surprisingly … Alaves. 

5 players are listed on the injury front for Madrid, while 3, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Guler and Bernardo Silva all have suspensions carrying over form last tournament. 

Inter’s only main absentee is Djed Spence.

Inter have only been bested by Roma on goal-differential after 4-1, 1-0 and 3-2 wins to be tied atop the Italian standings. This weekend they were down 2-0 to Napoli, and fought back with 2 from Martinez, 1 from Thuram and the winner coming late in the 91’. Martinez led Inter with 4 UCL goals last year. 

It’s in Madrid and this week’s setback notwithstanding, Madrid, and all of their stars had been looking good. In last year’s tournament Mbappe had 15 goals. He has 70 career UCL goals. Meanwhile, Vinicius has 30G/22A in the tournament since 2021/22, the most assists of any player in that time. 

But Inter are also among the title contenders and have scored in 20 straight matches including this season, pre-season and last. They’ve also not lost any of their last 15. But they’ve also not won away to any Spanish team in 13 attempts. 

Draw (+333) or BTTS (-200). 

• UCL Picks: Draw (+333) or BTTS (-200) in a parlay. (1-1)?

If you go the BTTS route maybe you can include it onto a parlay with a short-priced Dortmund win.

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Prediction

Dortmund were mid-pack in the League Phase at 3-2-3, 17th, in high-scoring games scoring 19, allowing 17. Their journey ended soon after vs Atalanta, winning 2-0 and then losing 4-1 in Leg 2 of the playoff round.

This year Dortmund dropped the Supercup to Bayern 2-1, but then won 2-0, 5-0 in the Pokal and then 3-2 this weekend. But they were down 2-0 to Hoffenheim and had to fight back and the winning goal was an OG in the 86’. Guirassy has 2G/1A, 7 shots 4 on target in the league. He has been directly involved in 24 goals in 24 UCL appearances, scoring 17, with 7 assists, with only Harry Kane and Raphinha producing more goal contributions over the same period.

Villarreal were dreadful at 0-1-7, 35th and outscored 18-5 in last year’s UCL. The Yellow Submarine haven’t had much success in La Liga so far but are at least scoring, with a 2-2 draw (Racing Santander), 2-2 draw (Atleti), 1-0 loss (Alaves) and 3-2 loss (A Coruna). So they’re not even winning against some promoted teams. Of their 6GF, 2 are from PKs and 1 from an OG. Nicolas Pepe has 2 goals. 

Home form remains one of Dortmund’s strongest advantages. They have lost just two of their last 23 Champions League matches at home where they are 14-7-2. There’s some defensive concerns with injuries to Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Kan and Mane. Lerma, Konstantelias and Kaba are also out in midfield. 

Last November these teams met in the League Phase as well and Dortmund won in Germany 4-0.

• UCL Picks: Dortmund win -138, add Guirassy SOT (-110)

UCL Wednesday Picks #1

Barcelona vs Feyenoord Prediction

It’s the first meeting between them in recent times, not playing since the 1974-75 UCL. 

A 5-1-2 record in the League Phase placed Barca 5th last year and saw them qualify directly. They then routed Newcastle 1-1 and 7-2, before being sent home by Spanish rivals Atleti with a 2-0 loss and 2-1 win. 

There’s been no missteps for Hansi Flick’s side so far, despite the big question coming into the season for who would be the striker. They’ve won 5-0, 2-0, 5-2 and 5-0. Five players have scored led by 6 from Raphinha, and 4 from Yamal and Fermin. Gordon has been setting everyone up with 4 assists. Yamal, Raphinha and Fermin have taken a ton of shots and have 9, 8 and 8 SOT respectively. 

Since the start of 2024/25, Raphinha has been involved in 26 Champions League goals, 16G/10A, with only Harry Kane having more in that time. 

Feyenoord haven’t been bad themselves, and haven’t lost yet in the Netherlands at 3-2-0 to be 3rd, scoring 13 and allowing 7. Their last 4 games have all cashed the BTTS & Over 2.5 bets at 3-1, 2-2, 5-2 and 2-2. Gjivai Zechiel leads all players in the Eredivise with 4G/3A. But Ueda and Valente also have 3 goals each. Going all the way back to March, Feyennoord haven’t lost in any completion, friendlies, included in 18, so they can’t be discounted. 

No Dutch team has ever won away in Barcelona in an UEFA event, but Barcelona haven’t 0 clean sheets in their last 15 UCL games.

At -1400 betting in Barcelona is hard to do unless you think it will be a massive blowout. 

Can’t bet against Barca right now the way they’re scoring. But a Barca win and BTTS (+115) is certainly possible. Or BTTS & Over 2.5 (-105)

• UCL Picks: BAR win and btts (+115)

UCL Wednesday Picks #2

PSG vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction

PSG are even bigger favourites at -2500 against Slovan, last year’s title winners, but currently Slovakia’s 4th-place team at 4-0-2, and a team that’s lost their last two league games 2-0 and 2-1. Manasse Kianga leads them with 2G/2A. 

The last time Slovan was in the UCL in 2024-25 they lost all 8 games. Tigran Barseghyan led them that term in goal involvements, assists and chances created so if you’re feeling adventurous and want to bet on Slovan players, he could be your man. They needed the playoff to get here and last moved on by just edging past Celje 1-1 and 2-1. 

Oddly, it’s PSG who may have more questions right now. Still winless in 3 round, they’re 14th after 2-2 draws with Rennes and Lille and then a 2-1 loss to Monaco this weekend. They also lost to Lens in the Trophy despite Champions, making their only win this season a 2-1 over Aston Villa in the UEFA Super Cup. No PSG players have really stood out in the league, with no one in the shot leader categories and only 3 players have scored, led by 2 from Marquinhos and 2 from new signings Ferran Torres. 

Way back in 2011 it was 0-0 and 1-0 PSG in the UEL. 

Despite their early-season struggles, you have to think it’s only a matter of time before PSG comes to life and hosting their opener in the UCL in a bid to win 3 in a row, this could be it. Although they were only 11th in last year’s League Phase so they are slow starters. If you’re betting on any player to come out of a slump it may be Kvaratskhelia who was directly involved in 16 Champions League goals last season (16G/10A).

None of the last 35 European Cup or Champions League winners have lost their first game playing at home in the next tournament, and that trend should continue here. 

This is basically unbettable by itself unless you’re super creative. Even PSG to win, score 3+ and Kvaratskhelia goal or assist is -240. 

• UCL Picks: PSG win, score 3+, Kvaratskhelia goal or assist 

Sporting vs Galatasaray Prediction

It’s their first-ever meeting. 

Sporting had a strong League Phase last year finishing 7th at 5-1-2. They suffered a heavy 3-0 loss away in Norway to Bodo, before responding with a bigger 5-0 home win to move on. But, in a much tighter 1-0 loss and 0-0 with Arsenal their UCL journey ended. Still, it was their most successful UCL campaign ever and they win 5/6 home games. 

Gala took the longer route at 3-1-4 and being 20th. But they pulled a shock upset of Juventus winning 5-2 and losing 3-2. A 1-0 win over Liverpool looked like that had a chance to go deep, but they lost 40 in Leg 2 and got sent packing. 

This year Sporting are 4-1-0 in Portugal, have won 4 straight and have outscored opponents 14-5 to be 2nd. Plenty of players are off to good starts with Suarez have 4G/1A, Goncalves 3G/1A and Ioannidis (2G/2A). 

Galatasaray is 1st overall in Turkey at 3-1-0 and their games have seen the highest overall GPG at 4.5. Osinhen leads the way with 6G/2A, followed by Gabriel Sara with 2G/2A. Gala has many absentees for this game, including Osinhem who is injured. He had 7 UCL goals last year. 

Osinhem is a big miss but they still have options in Rafael Leão, Leroy Sané and Aleksey Batrako. But betting on Gala away from home in international events isn’t usually profitable. They’ve won only two of their last 26 Champions League matches on the road, going 2-3-21. While also getting shut out 15 times, and to make matters worse teams from Turkey only have 1 win in their last 14 trips to Portugal. 

Gala’s road UCL game last year were a 3-0 win and losses of 5-1, 1-0 and 2-0. 

Sporting have scored 2+ goals in all 5 league games and in 9 straight overall including preseason. It’s 1+ goals in 15 straight as well. But it’s similar for Gala who have scored 3, 3, 4, and 2 goals in their league games. But they’ve also given up multiple goals in 3/4. 

• UCL Picks: Sporting double chance and over 1.5 match goals
• Parlay Picks: PSG win, score 3+, Kvaratskhelia G/A / SPO dc and over 1.5 game goals (+104)

UCL Wednesday Picks #3

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Liverpool went 6-0-2 in the League Phase and qualified directly last year. It was a 1-0 loss in Leg 1 to Galatasary, before a straightforward 4-0 win in Leg 2, but their journey ended in the next round losing 2-0 and 2-0 to eventual champs PSG.

Atletico took the long route, seeded 14th after a 4-1-3 start. They had a 3-3 and 4-1 with Club Brugge, then another wild tie with Tottenham winning 5-2 and losing 3-2, before knocking out Barca with a 2-0 win and 2-1 loss, before coming up just short in the semis to Arsenal 1-1 and losing 1-0. 

They last met in 2025 in the UCL league phase won 3-2 by Liverpool at home. Oddly, also a Matchday 1 fixture from last term. Liverpool won the previous two as well, 2-0 and 3-2. 

To me this looks tough to call. Liverpool have only won 1/3 opening games in the EPL, with two 2-2 draws and 2-0 win. That one win came over a newly promoted Ipswich. New manager Iraola has also never coached in the UCL. They could give a debut to UCL winner Barcola who just came over from PSG> 

Atletico had been undefeated in 3 in La Liga, but just lost 3-0 away to Bilbao and are not known for a strong road record. Zoom in on just road games to English teams in the UCL and they’re an all-time 0-4-6. They also had some of the highest scoring League Phase games last term with 32 goals scored in their 8 games, 4.0 GPG. Win, lose or draw, Atleti have scored in 22/24 recent UCL group stage or league phase games. How much Alvarez plays is anyone’s guess. He was a sub last game after failing to get his wish for a transfer. He had 10 UCL goals last year. 

• UCL Picks: Draw (+300) or BTTS (-163)

UCL Thursday Picks #1

Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction

It’s their first match against eachother. 

Only Arsenal had a better League Phase than Bayern last year who were 7-0-1, outscoring opponents 22-8. They rolled through Atalanta 10-2 on aggregate, then Real Madrid 6-4, but fell to PSG 5-4 and 1-1. 

At 2-3-3, Bodo/Glimt were 23rd and just squeaked into the playoff round, a massive accomplishment for them. They had wins over Atletico Madrid, Man City, and draws vs Dortmund and Tottenham. But the good times and upsets continued over Inter (3-1, 2-1), before beating Sporting 3-0 in Leg 1, but losing 5-0 in Leg 2. 

This year Bodo leads the Norwegian league at 15-2-2 by 3 points over Viking. They joined the 3rd round of UCL qualifying and beat Union Saint Gilloise 3-3, 3-2 and then NEC 3-1 and 3-0. Theyve now won 14 straight across all comps and have scored multiple goals in 11/11 and 18/19. The BTTS & over 2.5 is 6-2. Over 2.5 alone is 11-0. 

Helmersen leads them in goals in the league while Hauge had 6 UCL goals last year. 

Bayern doesn’t need much explaining. They set a Bundesliga scoring record last year and Kane has 33 UCL goals on his resume and has scored in 7 straight tournament games. He had 14 UCL goals last year and no one has more goals in the tournament than Kane since 2023. Bayern have won the opening match 23 straight times in European tournaments and they’re unbeaten in 38 home UCL group or league phase games at 36-2-0. They’re very likely to win and it’s very likely to be high-scoring. If you’re betting this alone the only question is if Bodo scores too, something they’re certainly capable of, making Bayern to win and BTTS a possibility. 

After a big 5-1 win on Matchday 1 in Germany, they shockingly drew 0-0 away to Schalke this weekend, which cost me a bet. They did have some rotation with each of Kane, Musiala and Olise only coming on in the second half. 

• UCL Picks: Bayern to win, over 2.5 match goals, Kane goal

Manchester United vs Sabah Prediction

It’s the first-ever meeting.

Man U have opened the campaign with a mixed bag of results at 1-1-1, losing 2-0 to Hull, beating Ipswich 5-2, and drawing Everton 2-2 this weekend, twice giving up the lead. Having conceded twice in every game, their trend of being a good BTTS team, they hit at the highest rate in the EPL last season, has continued.

Fernandes and Mbeumo have 4 SOT in the EPL, to go with 3 and 2 goals respectively. Fernandes is always a part of Man U’s UCL scoring with 6G/9A in his 19 UCL games for the team. 

If you’re not familiar with Sabah, it’s probably fair. They’ve only been around for 9 years in the Azerbaijan league. But they were league champs last year and a 9 points above the second place team anymore well-known Qarabag. Mickels was the league’s top scorer with 19 goals. 

This season they’re off to a good start again at 3-0-0, scoring 8, conceding 0 and Mickels has 4 of those goals. 

They needed 4 rounds of qualifiers to get here, first winning 2-0 and 2-1, then winning 1-0 and 2-0, in the third round losing 2-1 and winning 4-0, and finally beating Hapoel Beer-Sheva 2-1 and 5-2 in the 4th round of qualifying. During qualifying Veljko Simić  had 6 goals. 

Sabah is making their debut in the tournament and are only the 2nd Aerbajain side to make it this far, after Qarabag. They’re massive underdogs here. But Man U have only won 1/9 of their last UCL games. But EPL teams are 10-1-0 vs teams from Azerbaijan in European competition. 

• UCL Picks: Man U win, to score 2+, Fernandes goal or assist
• Parlay Picks: Bayern to win, over 2.5 match goals, Kane goal / Man U win, to score 2+, Fernandes goal or assist (-109)