We’ve got almost a full slate of mid-week MLS action on Wednesday, September 9 with 14 games, so we have lots to pick from for today’s MLS predictions and MLS picks for Week 25. So let’s jump into it it with 6 games, 3 parlays.
MLS Picks #1
Atlanta United vs Orlando City Prediction
Breel Embolo debuted for Atlanta and scored the tying PK goal vs Miami for a 2-2 draw last week. He caused a ton of problems by also drawing 7 fouls. 2 points against Miami isn’t bad. Being 3-1-1 in their last 5 isn’t bad. And scoring 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 is pretty good. It’s still just 3 wins in 13 and they’ve conceded in 14 straight.
Orlando is way above Atlanta in the standings in 8th compared to 14th, but they’re really only 2 wins 6 points better off. The gap may not be that big. But that’s because Orlando was poor to start the season until they signed their own new star and quickly started to improve with Griezmann.
The Lions are generally still in good form at 2-2-1 since Leagues Cup and only 2 losses in 7 overall. Last week it was Griezmann getting the only goal in a 1-0 win over San Diego. In his last 4 games he has 4G/2A, 14 shots and 8 SOT.
Orlando as a team hasn’t failed to score in 15 games, but the San Diego shut out is their only one in 9 games.
They’ve played twice this year already, both in Orlando, first a 1-1 draw in MLS and then a 4-1 Orlando win in the USOC. I see goals from both again. Orlando is playing good enough to score most games and a home team hasn’t failed to score in this matchup in 9 meetings.
- MLS Picks: BTTS and Griezmann 1+ SOT (-134)
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Prediction
I really wish I just blindly bet TFC draws from the start of the season. Even in an 8-goal game, somehow they ended drawn 4-4 with Chicago last week, highlighted by a breakout performance by their biggest offseason acquisition, Josh Sergent with 3 goals.
No team has more draws than Toronto this year and they’ve ended tied in 6 of their last 9. Now undefeated in 6, at 2-4-0, they’re sorta in good form, but still 11th, but only 2 points out of a Wild Card Playoff spot. They still often concede and the BTTS is a perfect 6-0 lately and it’s 19-4 on the year, the most of anyone.
TFC has shown they can hang around with some top teams with points against Chicago and Charlotte and a win over Miami. Now they get the league’s best team, Nashville though, who are on a 4-1-0 run after a 0-0 draw with NYCFC last week. It was the only time in 7 they didn’t score, and their 3rd clean sheet in 4 games.
TFC don’t win often enough for me to bet the win, but they’re home and have some confidence. Maybe they keep it close. But they’ve not had much success vs Nashville lately being winless in 6 and losing 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0 in the last 4.
- MLS Picks: Nashville double chance
- Parlay Picks: ATL vs ORL btts / NAS dc (-105)
MLS Picks #2
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Prediction
A few months back you may never have thought these teams would be just 4 points apart.
But Philly is on a tear, now 9th in the East. Across all comps they’re 7-2-2, and since the Leagues Cup alone they’re 3-2-0, with wins of 3-2, a 2-2 draw, 1-1 draw, and wins of 3-1 and 2-0. Under interim coach Ryan Richter they’ve yet to lose at 6-2-0.
I had the BTTS with them last week but they shut out Montreal, their first clean sheet in 8 games and just their 2nd in 15. Cavan Sullivan scored again, now a goal in 3 straight games and a SOT or more in 7/8 MLS games. Outside of Messi, no one has taken more shots in the league than Illoski with 88 attempts. He’s tied in 7th in SOT with 32.
Cincy has been one of the gold standards of a BTTS team, with the prop hitting at 17-5 rate in MLS. In al comps it had gone 13-1. Then they were shut out 4-0 to Nashville. I liked it to hit last week versus DC, but the rain came down hard, ruined the pitch and the game wasn’t played. So they should have the benefit of some fresher legs.
The Nashville game is the only time Cincy hasn’t scored in 24 games, so I’m backing them to do so here, but the way Philly is playing they should find the back of the net as well.
While the last meeting last year was only 1-0 Philly, the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 4-1 in their last 5 encounters.
- MLS Picks: BTTS
Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami Prediction
Speaking of BTTS teams, Chicago is 16-6 and Miami is 18-5 in that prop category. They’re also both right at the top of the Over 2.5 totals charts and only Cincy games at 4.5 GPG see more average goals than the 4.4 of Miami’s.
Both played in wild games this weekend. Miami drew Atlanta 2-2, thus extending their current BTTS & Over 2.5 streak to 9-0. It also leaves Miami with just 1 win across their last 7 in all comps. Messi didn’t score but had 2 assists. While latest Messi to score or assist has been around -1000, it’s suddenly only -400 at Bet365, so maybe… can be used as part of a SGP.
While the Fire had an 8-goal thriller with Toronto in a 4-4 draw. Lewandowski had a goal and assist and has 5G/2A in his first 8 MLS games. They’re on a poor 0-3-1 run, and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 7-1 and 11-2.
They just played on July 22 and Miami won 3-2. It was 5-3 Chicago in their match last year. The BTTS & Over 2.5 prop is 7-1 in their recent head-to-heads as well.
Two teams in poor form, two questionable defences, lots of scoring trends and two superstars in Messi and Lewandowski, I’m not sure how you can make a case for few goals.
- MLS Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5
- Parlay Picks: PHI vs CIN btts / CH vs MIA btts & O2.5 (-105)
MLS Picks #3
LAFC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
LAFC may be 3rd in the west but they’ve not been at their best for a while now. Last week they drew RSL 2-2, their 3rd straight draw and leaving them 0-3-2 since Leagues Cup. The good news is both stars got on the scoresheet with Bouanga and Son scoring. Look at all comps and it’s just 1 win in regulation in 9 games where they’re 1-6-2. A lot of these games have been close too where the Under 2.5 is 8-1.
New York drew as well last week 0-0 away to Seattle and they’re in about as poor a run as LAFC now winless in 5 to go with just 1 win in 8. They’ve scored just 2 goals in 4 games, but I guess the one bright spot is they kept a clean sheet! The first time since February 28!
The Red Bulls actually have the 5th-best road mark in the East, but they’re still just 3-3-5 and have been outscored 23-14. No one in the top 10 in those road records in the East have been outscored more.
LAFC may be struggling, but NY always concedes and if LA can get 1-2 goals here, it may be enough.
- MLS Picks: LAFC win
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC Prediction
Until the streak ends it’s probably good to have some sorta bet on St. Louis. They went to Vancouver on the weekend and won 3-1 in a typically hard place to play. They’re now 9-0-4 in their last 13, have outscored opponents 27-13 and have scored 3+ goals in 6 of those games. Include the USOC and it’s no losses in 14, they’ve scored in each of those 14 and also in 21/22. St. Louis don’t allow a lot of goals, and only multiple goals once in 8, but they’ve given up at least 1 in 6 straight.
Despite a lot of stars leaving for St. Louis, Simon Becher has stepped up with goals in 3 straight games, 5 goals in 4 games and 6 shots on target in his last 2 games. While some players are now gone, two new signings debuted off the bench last week in Rafa Navarro and Damion Downs.
Portland went up 3-0 to Minnesota, then gave it all back to be tied 3-3, but then Portland counter-punched back to go up 5-3, in what eventually ended 5-4. Vincent Janssen, a relatively new signing, became the first Portland Timbers player ever to score a hat-trick. Velde got on the scoresheet too and has 2G/2A in 4 games, while taking multiple shot attempts in 12/13 MLS games.
Portland’s overall form is a bit hit or miss at 3-1-3 in their last 7 in all comps, but the one consistent is the open-nature of their games where the BTTS is 13-0 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 12-1.
Outside of Miami and Cincy, Timbers’ home matches have been the most the exciting in the league averaging 4.3 GPG and they’ve cashed the most Over 2.5 bets at 11-1. Nobody has given up more shot attempts against in all of MLS than Portland, while only Orlando has given up more shots on target.
- MLS Picks: BTTS
- Parlay Picks: LAFC win / POR vs STL btts (+108)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
