The final 6 World Cup 2026 spots will be decided on Tuesday in the UEFA and Intercontinental Playoffs.
Let’s start with the 4 UEFA Playoff Finals, all at 2:45pm EST.
There were more goals in the semis last week than I expected. With some of the perceived “weaker” teams being at home here in the final, maybe we see some goals this round too for today’s World Cup Qualifiers predictions.
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy Prediction (Path A)
Semis:
- B&H: Played a tight game with Wales, down 1-0 until Dzeko tied it in the 86’ to force ET where nothing was decided, forcing PKs where B&H won 4-2.
- Italy: Had a more straightforward win. But were tied 0-0 with Northern Ireland until Tonal and Kean scored in the 56’ and 80’ minutes, so it was by no means a blowout, though N. Ireland had 0 shots on target and only 3 attempts.
B&H
In the qualifying group stage, Bosnia scored 17 goals and were 5-2-1 and 2nd to Austria. Despite 40-year-old Dzeko still being their main attacker, they’ve still scored in 12 straight matches. But then the BTTS is 8-2 as well, as they’ve only shut out San Marino, twice, in their last 10. BTTS & Over 2.5 is 4-2 and simply over 2.5 is 6-2. They won 3/4 home games in the group stage.
Italy
It’s another qualifying round where Italy may miss out on a major competition. It’s their 3rd trip to the WCQ playoffs too. At 6-0-2 they weren’t terrible, scoring 21, but allowing 12 goals. But with Norway in amazing form right now going a perfect 8-0-0, they could only finish 2nd. They weren’t bad on the road going 3-0-1.
Gattuso has won 7/8 matches since taking over. Player-wise they’re out Scammaca, Chiesa, and Di Lorenzo who are injured. The offense likely mostly rests on Retegui who had 5G/4A in qualifying. Pio Esposito also has 3 goals in 5 of his last qualifiers. Keane is the other option up top.
H2H: Bosnia’s only win was back in 1996 and Italy is 4-1-0 since, last winning a 2-0 friendly in 2024 to go with a 2-0 win and 1-1 draw in 2020 Nations League play.
Italy are huge favourites to simply advance (-450) but away in Zenica, perhaps it’s close. And perhaps B&H can get on the scoresheet.
- Picks: Both Teams to Score (+120)
Sweden vs Poland Prediction (Path B)
Semis:
- Sweden: Viktor Gyokeres ran wild vs Ukraine scoring in the 6’, 51’ and a PK in the 73’ for a 3-1 Sweden win, seeing them score on all 3 shots on frame, and Ukraine’s only goal coming in the dying embers in the 90’ minute.
- Poland: I expected fewer goals between POL/ALB last round but 3 were scored, 2 to Poland, a 2-1 win.
Sweden
Sweden were dreadful in qualifying and how they have a chance to still qualify is sorta laughable. They were winless at 0-2-4 and outscored 12-4 and are only here cause of the Nations League. Even at home, they scored just 1 goal in 3 games.
Sweden has a new manager in Graham Potter who lost his first game vs Switzerland 4-1 and then drew Slovenia 1-1. They have some big missing pieces with Isak, Krafth and Kulusevski out and now also Hien and Gudmundsson on defense.
Poland
Poland was second to Netherlands at 5-2-1 in qualifying. They allowed only 7 goals in 8. As always, Lewandowski features up top and has 89 goals for his nation, including 1 vs Albania. Poland is 5-2-0 in their last 7 games and are still undefeated under Jan Urban.
H2H: This matchup rarely goes in Poland’s favor, except in their last match. It was 2-0 Poland in the 2022 World Cup Qualifying Playoff Final, but they had lost 6 straight prior and were winless in 8. Sweden is 10-1-2 in their last 13 meetings.
Poland have been the better team but Sweden are at home and this convoluted path to the final they’ve taken may give them a new lease on life. Poland has also never won in Sweden in their history. Perhaps this is a good BTTS game (-106). Or we can focus on both Gyokeres and Lewandowski getting a shot on target.
- Picks: BTTS (-106) OR Gyokeres and Lewandowski 1+ sot (-143)
Kosovo vs Turkiye Prediction (Path C)
Semis:
- Kosovo: In a game where I thought goals would be a premier, there were 7 between Kosovo and Slovakia in a wild 4-3 Kosovo win, which was 4-2 until a 90’ minute Slovakia goal. This despite Slovakia having 19 shot attempts and 8 on target.
- Turkey: In a game where I thought there’d be more goals, there was just 1, Kadioglu 53’ winner for a 1-0 Turkey win. The Turks had plenty of chances with 15 attempts but only put 3 shots on target. One big question, is the health pf Calhanoglu who left injured.
Kosovo
At 3-2-1, and scoring 6, while allowing only 5, Kosovo’s games in qualifying were close and they came 2nd to Switzerland. At 1.8 GPG their games were only higher scoring than Albania’s. They were undefeated at home at 1-2-0, scoring just 3 and allowing 1. If anyone is to score for Kosovo it could be Asllani who has 8 goals with Hoffenheim. He was 1/4 scorers vs Slovakia.
Turkey
It was always going to be tough to win Group E with Spain in it, and it went exactly as you’d expect with Spain finishing 1st and Turkey 2nd. Turkey only lost to Spain in Turkey, and actually drew them 2-2 on the final matchday in Spain. At 4.8 GPG, their games were only lower-scoring than San Marino’s at 5.1. Turkey was solid on the road at 2-1-0 and scored 11 goals in 3 games. Turkey have a key missing defender in Soyuncu.
H2H: They’ve only played 3 times and all Turkey wins: 6-1 in a 2014 friendly, and 2-0 and 4-1 in 2016/27 World Cup Qualifying.
I think Turkey can score 1-2 in most games they play, though it didn’t happen last week. Most Kosovo games are tight, but then we just had a 7-goal explosion last week vs a typically decent defensive team like Slovakia. I like Turkey to win, but this could be a good goals game too: Over 2.5 (-112) or BTS & Over 2.5 (+125).
- Picks: Turkey moneyline (-118)
Czechia vs Denmark Prediction (Path D)
Semis
- Czechia: It was looking bad for Czechia vs Ireland, down 1-0 and 2-1, allowing a PK and an OG, before Krejci tied it in the 86’ to force ET and eventually PKs where Czechia won 4-3.
- Denmark: The Danes had the easiest win in the semis, routing North Macedonia 4-0. They had 63% possession, led in shots 21-3, shots on target 9-1 and got goals from 3 players—2 from Isaksen. Hojlund didn’t score, but he had 5 in the group stage.
Czechia
Czechia weren’t bad in qualifying at 5-1-2 but were 2nd to Croatia who didn’t lose any games. They had 18 GF in 8 games but also played the likes of Faroe Islands, Montenegro and Gibraltar. And in fact, 10 of those 18 goals came vs Gibraltar. But the Czechs didn’t lose any of their 4 home games and only conceded once.
Despite scoring most of their goals vs weaker teams, Czechia haven’t lost at home in 17 games going 14-3-0 and have conceded just three goals in 6 home games. And if we just look at home WCQs, it’s 18 games going back a decade since Czechia has lost. You can also consider Czechia’s top target, Patrick Schick in props, he just scored twice vs Heidenheim last weekend and scored vs 1 vs Ireland too. Pavel Sulc has scored 11 goals in 22 Ligue 1 games in France.
Denmark:
The Danes only lost once and only conceded 7 goals in 6 games in the group stage but were edged out by 2 points for 1st by Scotland. They had looked safe of being 1st but slip-ups vs Belarus and Scotland sent them down to 2nd on the last day. They have a ton of defenders set to miss out, and keeper Schmeichel, with as many as 5 possibly injured.
In all comps, Denmark games have been pretty wide-open with scores of 3-1, 2-2, 4-2 and 4-0. Over 2.5 is 6-0 and 9-1.
H2H: There’s a lot of draws between them with both winning 3 times, to go with 6 draws. It’s been draws in 5/7, but Danish wins in 2/3 so Czechia hasn’t won since 2004. The most recent was a 2-1 Denmark win at the Euros in 2021.
Denmark looked the best last week, but Czechia’s home record is impressive. But then they should be more tired having gone all the way to to PKs. Perhaps Denmark on the double chance is a good parlay leg (-450). Or Denmark to advance (-200).
- Picks: Denmark to advance and over 1.5 match goals (-105)
Intercontinental Playoffs
Now we have 2 more finals to get to and it’s the intercontinental playoffs between DR Congo and Jamaica at 5pm EST and Iraq and Bolivia at 11pm EST.
DR Congo vs Jamaica Prediction
Like Iraq, DR Congo have been waiting for this opponent for Tuesday’s final. They were second in their group in African qualifying at 7-1-2, scoring 15, allowing 6, coming 2nd to Senegal. The Under 2.5 went 8-2 in those games. As the 2nd best overall second place team, they moved onto the promotion round where they beat Cameroon 1-0 and Nigeria 2-1.
In the Africa Cup of Nations they were again 2nd to Senegal in the Group Stage at 2-1-0, scoring 5, conceding 1, before losing 1-0 to Algeria in the Round of 16, again playing in tight games. That was their last game back on Jan 6.
They’ll meet Jamaica who were second in CONCACAF in a group with Curacao as the winners. They were ahead of Trinidad & Tobago and Bermuda, and were 1-1-1, scoring 5, allowing 3. They have a new coach on the sidelines with Rudolph Speid taking over from Steve McClaren after their last game prior to the playoffs.
Jamaica needed to get past Oceania qualifiers, a team ranked 150th overall in the semis last week. The Reggae Boyz did it, but just barely, as Cadamarteri’s 18’ minute goal stood up as the only score. Jamaica held New Caledonia to just 0.14 xG and 1 shot on target, but they did have only 4 on frame themselves.
H2H: First meeting
As one of Africa’s stingiest defensive teams, I’m not sure I see Jamaica breaking them down, given they could only put 1 past New Caledonia. Therefore, an Under 2.5 (-175), or a bet on DRC winning (-118) or advancing (TBD) look like solid plays.
- Picks: DR Congo moneyline (-110)
Iraq vs Bolivia Prediction
Iraq have been waiting for the winner of last week’s Bolivia vs Suriname match. Iraq entered the Asian Qualifiers in the 2nd round and topped their group at 6-0-0, scoring 17 and allowing 2. Then in the 3rd round they were just 3rd in their group at 4-3-3, scoring and conceding 9, behind South Korea and Jordan. Into the 4th Stage, they beat Indonesia 1-0 and drew Saudi Arabia 0-0. With more goals scored, the Saudis topped the group and sent Iraq to the 5th round where they beat the UAE over two rounds, 1-1 and 2-1.
Iraq was involved in another tournament since last December playing in the Arab Cup with wins of 2-1 and 2-0, and 2-0 loss in the Group Stage, before losing 1-0 to Jordan in the quarterfinals.
Bolivia just sneaked into the intercontinental playoff spot in South America, being 7th out of 10 teams. But 17 of their 20 points came at home. On the road they were 1-0-8 and outscored 28-4. Regardless, only Messi scored more goals in CONMEBOL than Miguel Terceros who had 7.
Bolivia has 1 win in 19 road games when not playing in the altitude in Bolivia. This will be a neutral venue in Mexico so with a level playing field, so it’s tough to judge. Last Thursday, they fell behind to Suriname 1-0 but goals from Paniagua and a PK from Terceros in the 72’ and 79’ minutes was enough to see them through to the playoff final with a 2-1 win. While Bolivia dominated possession at 63%, the shots were just 18-14 and 6-4 for Bolivia, while Suriname led in xG 2.38 to 1.98.
H2H: They’ve played 1 friendly in 2018, a 0-0 draw.
It’s always yard to trust Bolivia when not at home. They were down to Suriname and it was tied until a PK in the final 10 minutes. They’re used to playing bigger team than Iraq, but I expect this to be close and the Under 2.5 is 10-2 in Iraq’s last 10 overall games.
•Picks: Under 2.5 (-163) or Draw (+230)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
