USA vs Japan Prediction
The first Women’s Olympic Soccer Quarterfinal games kicks off at 9am EST Saturday August 3.
It’s 1st from Group A USA at 3-0-0 vs 2nd from Group C Japan at 2-0-1.
USA vs Japan Odds
- USA -154
- DRAW +290
- JAP +400
- USA to advance -300
- JAP to advance +225
- Over 2.5 -175
- Under 2.5 +135
- BTTS Yes -163
- BTTS No +120
USA Preview
In 3 Group Stage games USA won 3-0 (Zambia), 4-1 (Germany) and 2-1 (Australia). Against the Matildas last game it was goals from Trinity Rodman early and Korbert Albert late that gave USA a 2-0 lead, only halved in the 91’ from a PK goal. USA led in shots and shots on target 19-6 and 9-2.
An early Sam Coffey yellow card though does mean she’ll miss out in the quarters.
Their leading scorers have been:
- Mallory Swanson (3)
- Trinity Rodman (2)
- Sophia Smith (2)
- Lynn Williams (1)
- Korbert Albert (1)
Further back the US is undefeated in 12 at 11-1-0 outscoring opponents 27-7, which includes clean sheets in 7/12 and multiple goals scored in 9/12. They also only have 1 defeat in 18 and 2 defeats in 26 games.
Japan Preview
Japan started with a 2-1 loss to Spain, then put up wins of 2-1 and 3-1 over Brazil and Nigeria respectively.
Against Nigeria on MD3 Japan jumped out to a 2-0 lead with goals in the 22’ and 32’ minutes before Nigeria cut it to 2-1 in the 42’. That was as close as it would get with Nigeria getting a third in first-half stoppage time.
Japan is now 7-1-4 in 12 and have just 4 losses in 22 games.
Only once in 28 games has Japan not found the back of the net and the Over 2.5 has gone 7-2 in their last 9.
USA vs Japan Head-to-Head
These teams regularly meet up in the SheBelieves Cup including this year when USA won 2-1 in April.
It was 1-0 USA (2023), 3-1 USA (2020) and 2-2 (2019) also in that tournament.
Further back, USA is 5-1-0 and 8-3-0 undefeated in the past 11. Japan’s last win was 1-0 back in 2012 in the Algarve Cup.
In 22 all-time meetings that is Japan’s only regulation win. Japan also won in PKs after a 2-2 draw in the 2011 World Cup.
USA vs Japan Picks
I saw USA at -125 and that has quickly jumped to -154 at Bet365. Or even -180 at Caesars. So be sure to shop around for the best price in this game or any game.
Japan has looked good and did hang in with Spain, but then were moments away from losing to Brazil.
The US has basically coasted so far and easily brushed aside the 4th-ranked Germans.
This should be a US win, or if you want better odds US to win and score over 1.5 (-110) or US to win and BTTS (+210)
Other same-game parlay options could be to throw in on or multiple of Smith, Rodman or Swanson to have Over 1.5 shot attempts. They’ve totalled 14, 12 and 10 respectively, well over 2 per game each. For shots on target they have 6, 6 and 5.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: USA win plus Sophia Smith over 1.5 shot attempts (-138)
Spain vs Colombia Prediction
This one kicks off at 11am EST on Saturday, August 3.
Spain finished 1st in Group C at 3-0-0. Colombia were 3rd in Group A at 1-0-2.
Spain vs Colombia Odds
- SPA -400
- DRAW +370
- COL +800
- SPA to advance -800
- COL to advance +450
- Over 2.5 -170
- Under 2.5 +130
- BTTS Yes +100
- BTTS No -130
Spain Preview
Spain hasn’t blown through anyone this tournament but they’ve still been near-perfect with wins of 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0 over Japan, Nigeria and Brazil.
They’ve controlled all 3 games but beat Japan with a 74’ minute goal. Then beat Nigeria with an 85’ minute goal. Then with Brazil playing down after a Marta red card, only got goals in the 68’ and 107’ minutes.
So maybe bets on Spain scoring in the 2nd half have great value.
Wins are wins though and in 2024 Spain is 10-0-1 outscoring opponents 28-5 in all comps. Go further back and they’ve lost just 4 times in 38 games being 33-1-4.
In their last 14 games, they’ve scored multiple goals in 12 of them and won by multiple goals in 9/14.
Colombia Preview
Colombia fell behind to France 3-0 on MD1 before pulling back 2 goals but ultimately losing 3-2. They lost Mayra Ramirez to a red card in that game and she missed the next 2 games but is eligible to return in the quarterfinals.
On MD2 they beat New Zealand 2-0 before falling 1-0 to Canada on MD3. In that game they also played without Catalina Usme who was injured in warm-ups. Now they didn’t need a win vs Canada to go through, but still would have wanted to avoid a 3rd place finish and this meeting with Spain.
Las Chicas Superpoderosas have been a feisty opponent and are improving but have now lost 3/4.
They have 8 wins in 13 games but those opponents are in reverse order New Zealand, Venezuela, Venezuela, Guatemala, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Panama and New Zealand again
None of those teams are even close to Spain’s calibre.
Prior to the Canada loss they though still scored in 7 straight for a total of 14 goals.
Spain vs Colombia Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever meeting between these teams.
Spain vs Colombia Picks
And I see Spain coming out on top here. Against a comparable opponent Colombia allowed 3 to France, I’ll just ask for Spain to score 2 in this win.
In a SGP, if you want to add a player getting shots, Putellas leads the teams with 10 shots and 7 shots on target despite not even starting one of the games.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: Spain to win and score over 1.5 (-138)
Canada vs Germany Prediction
Germany meets Canada at 1pm EST on Saturday, August 3rd.
This is a meeting between Germany, 2nd in Group B at 2-0-1 and Canada, 2nd in Group A at 3-0-0.
So really, Canada should’ve been a 1st place team being undefeated and having more points than France in that group and having beaten France 2-1, but the 6-point deduction from the drone scandal meant Canada was still sitting on 0 points heading into MD3 and needed a win vs Colombia.
Canada vs Germany Odds
- CAN +170
- DRAW +235
- GER +118
- CAN to advance +100
- GER to advance -135
- Over 2.5 -170
- Under 2.5 +130
- BTTS Yes -190
- BTTS No +150
Canada Preview
After a nervy 2-1 win over New Zealand on MD1, news on the drone scandal broke and Canada was deducted 6 points. So they were at -3.
A MD2 late late winning goal from Vanessa Gilles gave Canada a 2-1 win over France levelling then back to 0 points.
That still meant they needed another 3 points and a win over Colombia to advance. And they got it.
A 2nd half, free kick from Jessie Fleming headed down and in from Gilles, the Game 2 hero gave Canada a 1-0 lead which they would hold onto.
France beat New Zealand to claim 1st in Group A, Canada moved up to 2nd and Colombia fell to 3rd.
Germany Preview
Germany started the Olympics with a 3-0 win over Australia, then fell 4-1 to USA before rebounding with a 4-1 win themselves over Zambia.
Versus Zambia, they had 3 different scorers in Schuller, Buhl, Schuller again and Senß.
Only a keeper error giving the ball away to Barbra Banda for an easy goal as their only misstep.
Canada vs Germany Head-to-Head
These teams last met in the Arnold Clark Cup in 2022 and Canada won 1-0.
Germany won 2018 and 2017 friendlies 3-2 and 2-1 and they met twice in the 2016 Olympics won 2-1 by Canada in the Group Stage but then 2-0 Germany in the Semifinals.
Canada vs Germany Picks
Germany has now won 8/10 outscoring opponents 27-13 in that time.
They have conceded in 7/9 so BTTS bets are 7-2.
The Over 2.5 has gone 9-0 in recent Germany games.
In their past 16 games they have just 3 losses (USA, Iceland, France) and have scored in 14/16.
Canada has only 2 defeats (both to USA and in PKs) in their last 16 and have scored in all 16 of those games, including twice in 3 of their past 4.
While last game was 1-0, other recent scores have been 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2, 1-1 and 2-2, so BTTS and the Over has been hitting.
Oddsmakers are expecting goals with BTTS being heavily juiced, so let’s bet that and someone getting a 3rd and go BTTS & Over 2.5.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Prediction: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-125)
France vs Brazil Prediction
Saturday’s final quarterfinal sees host nation France playing Brazil at 3pm EST.
France finished 1st in Group A at 2-0-1, though could have been 2nd if not for Canada being deducted points.
Brazil were 1/2 3rd place teams to advance, being 3rd in Group C behind Spain and Japan at 1-0-2.
France vs Brazil Odds
- FRA -165
- DRAW +255
- BRA +350
- FRA to advance -300
- BRA to advance +225
- Over 2.5 -130
- Under 2.5 +100
- BTTS Yes -130
- BTTS No +100
France Preview
France beat Colombia 3-2, lost to Canada 2-1 and beat New Zealand 2-1.
Marie-Antoinette Katoto scored both French goals vs the Football Ferns giving her 5 goals in 3 games this tournament and goals in each game. She’s a dynamite bet in the anytime goalscoring markets. Or to include in shots props with 9 shots and 8 on target, tops in both categories for Les Bleus.
Brazil Preview
Brazil kicked off their Olympic campaign with a 1-0 win over Nigeria. They were minutes away from a 1-0 win over Japan before allowing 2 stoppage time goals late in the game and losing 2-1.
On MD3 Spain was already controlling the game but was struggling to break through, but then Marta took a straight red for a kick to an opponent’s head reducing Brazil to 10 players.
While still creating a couple of chances, that was about it for Brazil. Spain scored in the 68’ and again deep into stoppage time in the 107’ to go on to win 2-0.
France vs Brazil Head-to-Head
These teams just met in last summer’s World Cup won 2-1 by France.
That keeps France undefeated all-time against Brazil at 7-5-0.
They won 2-1 and 1-0 in the 2022 and 2020 Tournoi de France and 2-1 in ET in the 2019 World Cup.
France has won each of the past 5, but one did need ET.
BTTS has gone 6-1 in the past 7.
France vs Brazil Picks
Overall France may be 12-1-4 since the World Cup but they’ve alternated wins and losses in their past 7 games and 3 of those losses have come in their past 6 games.
They’ve only failed to score once in those 17 games, but have now conceded in 7 straight where scorelines have read 2-1, 2-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-1.
Brazil are 10-0-4 in their last 14 and have scored in all but 2 of those games, the last one vs Spain and another vs USA (1-0).
Missing Marta will be a big loss for As Canarinhas and it kinds seems like their tournament could be sputtering out here after increasingly poor results.
I’d pick France to advance on their home pitch but their defense has been shaky and they’ve been giving up goals to everyone lately.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Prediction: Both Teams to Score (-130)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
