It’s Women’s Olympic Soccer Matchday 3 on Wednesday, July 31 with all 12 team still fighting to advance to the knockout rounds.
Let’s break down each of the 6 games here. So far, the women’s picks have been rolling going 4-2 and the parlay 1-0 on MD1, and 5-1 and the parlays 2-0 on MD2.
We’ll try to keep it going on MD3 with Wednesday’s Women’s Olympic Soccer predictions.
Japan vs Nigeria Prediction
Group B kicks off at 11am EST and this has been one of the tightest groups.
Spain lead with 6 points, followed by Japan (3), Brazil (3) and Nigeria (0).
Japan Preview
On MD2, Japan had a chance to take a lead into half vs Brazil but had a PK saved in 1st half stoppage time.
Brazil finally broke through in the Jhennifer in the 56’ with a shot from the top of the box. And it looked like that would be it for the scoring until Japan got a second PK attempt in 2nd half stoppage time and converted in the 92’. Our draw or under pick was looking good until Japan added another lobbing on over the Brazil keeper minutes later in the 96’.
Japan gets the W, 2-1.
They lost 2-1 to Spain on MD1.
Nigeria Preview
Last game Spain led 10-1 in attempts and 5-1 in shots on target but neither scored in the 1st half on MD2 between Nigeria and Spain.
Salma Paralluelo broke through knocking in a cross into the box in the second half but VAR called it offside.
Spain piled on the pressure all game but not until late did they finally score off a free kick from Alexia Putellas to the top right corner of the net in the 85’ to get the 1-0 win.
So it’s a 1-0 loss to Brazil and a 1-0 loss to Spain for Nigeria so far.
Head-to-Head
The only recent meeting was a 2-0 friendly win by Japan in 2022. Japan is 3-0-1 all-time vs the Super Falcons.
Japan is 6-1-4 in 11, but had won 10 straight before that. Only once in 27 games has Japan not found the back of the net.
The Over 2.5 has gone 6-2 in their last 8.
But then for Nigeria, their games are often tight with the Under 2.5 going 6-0 and 10-4 of late.
Nigeria has not allowed more than 1 goal in any of their 12 games and only once in 19 games.
But sitting 4th in Group C with 0 points, they will need to go for the win and not sit back. Still, I’ll bet on a low-scoring game.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: Under 2.5 (-115)
Brazil vs Spain Prediction
11am EST.
Brazil Preview
Brazil beat Nigeria 1-0 on MD1 and were moments away from beating Japan by the same score on MD2.
But a PK goal in the 92’ and a second in the 96’ saw Japan fight back for an unlikely 2-1 win.
Brazil are 10-0-3 in 13 and have scored in all but 1 of those (1-0 loss USA).
Spain Preview
Spain topped Japan 2-1 on MD1 and just … edged past Nigeria 1-0 on MD2.
The scoreline will show a tight game but Spain dominated from start to finish but didn’t break through until an Alexia Putellas free kick goal in the 85’.
Final Stats
- Poss: 68% SPA
- Shots: 23-3 SPA
- SOT: 8-1 SPA
- Corners: 15-1 SPA
- Dangerous Attacks: 150-30 SPA
- xG: 2.57 – 0.42 SPA
In 2024 Spain is 9-0-1 outscoring opponents 26-5 in all comps. Go further back and they’ve lost just 4 times in 37 games being 32-1-4.
In their last 13 games, they’ve scored multiple goals in 11 of them and won by multiple goals in 8/13.
Head-to-Head
In 4 all-time meetings the results are:
- 1-1 in 2022 friendly
- 2-1 Spain in 2019 friendly
- 2-1 Brazil in 2017 friendly
- 1-0 Brazil in 2015 World Cup
The game is more important for Brazil who are not guaranteed to advance sitting 3rd in the group but Spain are one of if not the best team in the world right now.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-110)
Zambia vs Germany Prediction
1pm EST.
Zambia Preview
Zambia got on the board early vs Australia in MD2 scoring with Barbra Banda in the 1st minute of play.
But the Matildas levelled soon after in the 7’.
It was Zambia striking again in the 1st half with the world’s most expensive female player Rachael Kundananji scoring in the 21’.
Then it was Banda again with a brace in the 33’.
The 1st half scoring wasn’t done though with Hayley Raso of Real Madrid heading in a goal in the 35’. 3-2.
Then in 1st half stoppage time, Banda netted her 3rd Olympic hat-trick. 4-2.
Even after 6 goals in the 1st half the scoring wasn’t over.
Zambia made it 5-2 with a second from Kundananji and then Australia pulled one back to make it 5-3 off of a Zambia own goal and then another to cut it to 5-4 but that was called back for keeper interference. Back 5-3.
It didn’t matter as Australia scored off a free kick minutes later by Steph Catley from a huge gaff from the Zambian keeper seeing it go right through her hands.
And the goals kept coming with Catley getting her 2nd goal of the game from a PK with 12 minutes left in the game. 5-5.
And the Matildas kept coming scoring a 6th in the 90th minute from Michelle Heyman, assisted by Catley to take a 6-5 lead and win.
The most ever goals in a Women’s Olympic game is 13 goals. This one had 11.
That devastating loss for Zambia leaves them 4th in Group B with 0 points and -4 goal-differential. They simply need to go all out and attack again and hope for better defensive play.
Germany Preview
On MD2 the USA scored early but Germany responded quickly to draw level at 1-1. But from then on it was all USA who went on to win 4-1.
Captain Alexandra Popp could miss out here as she was subbed out with a knee injury last game.
Head-to-Head
There’s only ever been one meeting and the result will shock you. It may have just been a friendly, but Zambia defeated Germany 3-2 last summer.
This looks like a game primed for goals to me.
Zambia have lost 3-0 and 6-5.
The Copper Queens are 10-3-4 in their past 17 but just 1-2-3 in their past 5. They’ve scored in 14 of those 17 games though.
Germany won 3-0 and lost 4-1.
They’ve won 8/10 outscoring opponents 23-12 in that time.
They have conceded in 6/8 so BTTS bets are 6-2.
In their past 15 games they have just 3 losses (USA, Iceland, France) and have scored in 13/15.
The Over 2.5 has gone 8-0 in recent Germany games.
All the stats point to goals and the oddsmakers have caught on. Over 2.5 is -450. Even Over 3.5 is -175.
Options:
- GER win and score over 2 (-240) in a parlay
- GER win and score over 3 (+100)
- GER win and BTTS (+137)
This game has great parlay potential even just asking Germany to score Over 2.5 (-250) in a parlay.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: Germany to win and both to score (+137)
Australia vs USA Prediction
1pm EST.
Australia Preview
Zambia’s star forwards dominated vs Australia on MD2.
Barba Banda had a hat-trick and Racheal Kundananji had a brace. But it wasn’t enough. How? Well, the Matildas scored 6 goals on their own fighting back from 5-2 and scoring the winber in the 90’ minutes for a 6-5 win, leaving them 3rd in Group B.
Steph Catley had 2G/2A last game so could be worth some looks in player props.
Australia is 5-1-2 in 8 but two came vs Uzbekistan. And they’ve lost 2/3. They’ve also allowed 6, 3 and 2 goals in their past 3 games.
USA Preview
USA got on the board early vs Germany last round scoring in the 11th minute from Sophia Smith.
It didn’t take Germany long though to level scoring on a low strike from way outside of the box from 22’.
But it was USA quick to get the lead back with Trinity Rodman’s shot stopped but Mallory Swanson putting in the rebound.
Sophia Smith added a 3rd, her second, late in the first half off of a deflection to give the USA a 3-1 lead at the break.
They added a 4th late on from Lynn Williams in the 89’ to win 4-1 and they sit 1st in Group B.
Head-to-Head
USA has historically dominated the Matildas being 11-4-1.
But more recently are 3-3-1. That 1 Australia win was back in 2017 though.
In 2021 friendlies it was 1-1 and 3-0 USA.
In the 2021 Olympics it was 0-0 and 4-3 USA.
Zambia may have 2 of the top strikers in the world, but USA is arguably, the best team or top 2/3 in the world.
Australia’s only chance here without Sam Kerr is if USA, knowing they are through take their foot off the gas.
The way Australia has been leaking goals even a slightly rotated USA side should net a couple and win.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: USA over 1.5 (-163) / OR USA win and over 1.5 team goals (-120)
New Zealand vs France Prediction
3pm EST.
New Zealand Preview
New Zealand lost 2-1 to Canada and 2-0 to Colombia but because of Canada’s points deduction they’re still alive to advance, albeit barely, being 4th in Group A, 0 points and a -3 point-differential.
However, they’ve been outplayed badly in both games with the stats…..
Versus Canada
- Poss: 61% CAN
- Shots: 22-7 CAN
- Shots on Target: 9-2 CAN
Versus Colombia
- Poss: 65% COL
- Shots: 17-6 COL
- Shots on Target: 7-0 COL
France Preview
France jumped out to a 3-0 lead over Colombia on MD1 before seeing Colombia claw back with 2 goals to edge out a 3-2 win.
On MD1, they took a 1-0 lead over Canada only to see Canada draw level and go on to score the winner in the 102’ minute.
Marie-Antoinette Katoto has been in top form for Les Bleus with 3 goals in the 2 games.
France are 2nd in Group A but could still win the group with a win and Colombia not beating Canada.
Head-to-Head
It’s been 8 years since they last met in the 2016 Olympics won 3-0 by France. Other results have been 2-1 and 5-2 France and a 1-1 draw all further back and all friendlies.
Since losing in PKs to Australia in last summer’s World Cup France is now 11-1-4 but 3/4 losses have come in 3/5 most recent games.
BTTS & Over 2.5 is 6-0 in France games and they’ve only not scored 3 times in 20 games.
Anything other than a huge shock upset loss to the Ferns should see France through. I don’t see that happening.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: France -1.5 (TBA)
Colombia vs Canada Prediction
3pm EST.
Colombia Preview
Colombia was all over New Zealand last game with 72% at the half, 0.68 to 0.02 xG and a 1-0 lead courtesy of Restropo in the 27’ minute. The shots were 11-3 and 6-1 on target for Colombia at halftime.
That continued in the 2nd half with Colombia scoring in the 72’ from Santos.
Final stats: 65% possession, shots 17-6 and shots on target 7-0 (or 11-1 deadriana leon
pending where you look) and an xG 1.56 to 0.14.
Colombia’s MD1 started poor, down 3-0 to France but they fought back to lose 3-2.
Canada Preview
In the midst of Drone-Gate, their coaches being suspended and a 6-point deduction, Canada found themselves in need of a win to have any heops of staying alive when they met France on MD2.
After a tight half, Kototo found the breakthrough to open the scoring France late in the 1st half in the 42’.
Into the second half and Jessie Fleming had a cross bumbled by the French keeper land right in her path to slot in the tying goal.
Knowing they needed a win, Canada had to attack in the 13 minutes of stoppage time. It was almost over when France missed a point blank shot in the box saved by Canadian keeper Kailen Sheridan. With the time winding down, Janine Beckie tracked back and caused a turnover which sent Canada back on the attack. Adriana Leon passed across the box to Huitema who had her low hard shot saved, but rebounded right into the path of Vanessa Gilles who shot in the winner off the post.
Head-to-Head
It’s been some time since these nations met, not since the 2015 Pan American Games where Colombia won 1-0. Canada won 1-0 in a 2012 friendly and Canada won 2-1 in the 2011 Pan Am Games. So there is really nothing recent and relevant to go off of here.
Despite Canada having a MD1 win over New Zealand 2-1 and then the win over France last round, the points deduction has them sitting on 0 points.
Canada has appealed and a decision is expected before Wednesday’s game.
This is a must-win game to even have a chance as 1/2 3rd place teams. As it stands, Australia and Brazil are 3rd in their groups and already have 3 points.
If France beats New Zealand and Canada beats Colombia, 1st place Colombia could actually fall to 3rd on goal-differential so this is big for both sides.
Colombia is 8-0-4 in their last 12 now, scoring in 10/12 and in 7 straight.
Canada has only 2 defeats (both to USA and in PKs) in their last 15 and have scored in all 15 of those games, including twice in 3 straight.
With recent scores of 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2, 1-1 and 2-2, the BTTS bet has been the winning bet more often than not.
In a crucial game for both, no matter who wins, I see a goal coming from both teams.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-135)
Parlay Picks
- USA double chance (-600)
- GER over 2.5 (-250)
- FRA over 1.5 (-400)
- Odds (+104)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
