This could be worth of the Final, but with so many top teams on the same side of the bracket, we’ll see it on Tuesday, July 9 at 3:00 pm EST in the Euro 2024 Semifinals between La Roja and Les Bleus. Let’s check out the odds and make our top Spain vs France prediction.
Spain vs France Odds
- SPA +160
- DRAW +190
- FRA +210
- SPA to adv -125
- FRA to adv +100
Spain Preview
- MD1: 3-0 win Croatia
- MD2: 1-0 win Italia
- MD3: 1-0 win Albania
- R16: 4-1 win Georgia
- QF: 2-1 win Germany (extra-time)
In the quarterfinals versus Germany, it ended all square at half between and Germany got away without yellows on a few plays including Toni Kroos on Pedri early on which saw Pedri exit the game, which brought on Dani Olmo.
There were 5 fouls in 1st half, the most of any game this tournament.
In the 51’ minute Lamine Yamal crosses into box for Olmo to open the scoring and make it 1-0 Spain.
Germany poured on the pressure and had shots but their closest was in 76’ minute, a shot off the post by Niclas Füllkrug.
Kai havertz picked off a pass from Unai Simón and almost chips him but it goes just over the bar which was another near goal for the Germans.
With time ticking down, Manuel Neuer takes a throw in and Germany quicky moved down the field and Maximilian Mittelstadt crosses it into the box, with Joshua Kimmich heading it back to Florian Wirtz in the 89′ for a dramatic tying goal to make it 1-1.
It was the first real goal scored vs Spain in the tournament and Germany’s 11 goals scored is now most they’ve scored in a Euros ever.
Into extra-time and there was no scoring in the first half.
In the second half, Marc Cucurella was close to a hand ball in the box but it was deemed the hand was close to his body.
Then in the 119’ minute, this time Olmo played provider and crosses into Mikel Merino who heads home the winner.
There was one last header that went wide by Füllkrug for Germany.
But in the last seconds Dani Carvajal pulls down Jamal Musiala on last German rush, taking his 2nd yellow and is sent off. He knew he was missing the semifinals anyways, so perhaps it was strategic.
Final Stats
- Poss: 54% GER
- Shots: 23-18 GER
- SOt: 6-5 SPA
- Corners: 5-1 GER
This was the firat time a host has gone out in quarterfinals ever.
So Carvajal joins Robin Le Normand with suspensions for this game for Spain, while Pedri will miss out with a knee injury from last game.
Captain Alvaro Morata was initially thought to have received a yellow at the end of last game which would have resulted in suspension but that was not the case.
France Preview
- MD1: 1-0 win vs Austria (OG)
- MD2: 0-0 draw vs Netherlands
- MD3: 1-1 draw vs Poland (both had PKs)
- R16: 1-0 win vs Belgium (OG)
- QF: 0-0 draw vs Portugal (5-3 PK) win
In the quarterfinals versus Portugal, this was dull. With two juggernauts filled with stars, it looked like another game neither wanted to lose, versus a game either wanted to win.
70 minutes in and there were still only 5 combined shots on target between France and Portugal and the game went on to end 0-0.
In extra-time, Ronaldo has a big miss early in extra-time and by the end of the first half there were 28 attempts and only 8 shots on target between both teams.
In the second extra-time Mbappe takes himself off after getting hit in the nose.
Overall this was a dreadful game. It went into PKs where France wins 5-3 on spot kicks.
Final Stats
- Poss: 60% FRA
- Shots: 20-15 FRA
- SOT: 5-4 FRA
- Corners: 11-4 POR
This is the first time a team has made the semifinals with no open play goals.
Spain vs France Head-to-Head
- The last meeting was a 2-1 win for France in the 2021 Nations League
- Spain won 2-0 in a 2017 friendly and France won 1-0 in a 2014 friendly
- Only once in six games have there been more than 2 goals scored
- The last 5 meetings are an equal 2-1-2 (2 wins each)
Spain Stats
- Won 7 STR and outscored opps 20-3 in that time
- Just 1 loss (Colombia) in last 17 (15-1-1). Outscored opponents 47-11
- Winners of 15/19 since 2023 which gives them the highest win rate of any nation in that time
- Kept clean sheets in 4/7
- Only given up multiple goals twice in 20 past games
France Stats
- Since losing to Argentina in World Cup Final, France is 13-4-2
- Their only losses have come to Germany
- But they have no open play goals this tournament
- Kept clean sheets in 6/7
- The Under 2.5 is 6-0
Spain vs France Prediction
For the best bet, obviously, both teams are loaded with talent but only one has lived up to its potential and that is clearly and obviously Spain.
At this point these teams obviously have played more games than some but:
- Shots: Spain 1st / France 4th
- Shots on Target: Spain 1st / France 7th
- xG: Spain 1st / France 4th
- Shot on Target Against: Spain just 14 in 5 games and France just 15 allowed
Spain are the only team to still have a perfect record at 5-0-0 and have scored the most goals and only given up 1 real goal all tournament, just an own goal until the Germany goal last game.
Now you can make some similar points for France in some instances too. They’ve yet to lose but are just 2-3-0 in regulation.
They’ve not given up a goal from the run of play at all (1 PK and 1 OG), but they’ve still yet to score from the run of play either (2 OGs / 1 PK).
That’s wild. And Mbappe who hasn’t looked great, (1 goal on 20 shots, which was a PK) all tournament and who is struggling with the mask. He took himself off last game, so who knows if he can be effective or make it through this game either.
It should be another tight low-scoring Euros game but the Under 2.5 is priced at just -200. So for our Spain vs France prediction I’ll bet that someway, somehow, Spain is going through.
- Spain vs France picks: Spain to advance (-125)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
