Sunday July 14, at 3 pm EST it’s the Euro 2024 Final at the Olympiastadion Berlin between Spain and England and we’re making our Spain vs England prediction here.
Spain looks to win their 4th and take the all-time lead, having last won in 2012 and 2008, while England looks for their 1st Euros win and 1st win at a major tournament since 1966.
However, England are into the final in back-to-back tournaments after losing to Italy in 2020. That score ended 1-1 with Italy winning in PKs.
And bets on the the Under 2.5 have been common of late in Euros finals with the Under going 7-3. And in fact rarely have we seen shoot-outs with both teams getting involved with BTTS going just 3-7 as well. The Italy-England final was the only BTTS Yes in the last 5.
Spain vs England Odds
Here are the full Euro 2024 Final odds from Bet365.
- SPA +150
- DRAW +180
- ENG +240
- SPA to adv -138
- ENG to adv +110
- Over 2.5 +150
- Under 2.5 -188
- BTTS Yes +100
- BTTS No -138
Spain Preview
- MD1: 3-0 win Croatia
- MD2: 1-0 win Italy
- MD3: 1-0 win Albania
- R16: 4-1 win Georgia
- QF: 2-1 win Germany (et)
- SF: 2-1 win vs France
Versus France in the semifinals, this could have gone either way. While so many Euros games had lacked goals, with so much talent on the field there was chance that could change in this one.
And it did with goals from France in the 9’ from Randal Kolo Muani, and then Spain in the 21’ and 25’ from Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo. Yamal’s goal made him the youngest scorer in Euros history at 16 years old.
Olmo’s gave Spain what turned out to be the winner as no more goals were scored in the 2-1 Spain win.
Final Stats
- Poss: 59% SPA
- Shots: 9-6 FRA
- SOT: 3-2 FRA
- Corners: 6-4 FRA
- xG: 1.1 – 0.7 FRA
England Preview
- MD1: 1-0 win vs Serbia
- MD2: 1-1 draw vs Denmark
- MD3: 0-0 draw vs Slovenia
- R16: 2-1 win (ET) vs Slovakia
- QF: 1-1 draw (5-3 PK win) vs Switzerland
- SF: 2-1 win over Netherlands
In England vs Netherlands, the Dutch exploded out of the gate with an early strike from Xavi Simons just 7 minutes in. The lead wouldn’t last long with Denzel Dumfries being called on a 50/50 challenge on Harry Kane in the box resulting in a PK after a VAR review which led to a Kane goal.
Dumfries got some redemption moments later stopping a Phil Foden shot right on the goalline. Foden also grazes the post on the half-hour mark.
Depay then comes off in the 35’ for the Dutch.
The half ended 1-1 but it was definitely one of the better halves for England this tournament holding 63% possession and having 4 shots on target to just the 1 for Netherlands.
Despite those early goals the game was mere moments away from ending 1-1 and going to extra-time.
But with Kane and Foden having been subbed off late in the half, it was their replacements Cole Palmer and Ollie Watkins who created a moment of magic with Palmer passing to Watkins who blasted a shot to the corner of the net in the 90’ minute sending England into the final.
Final Stats
- Poss: 59% ENG
- Shots: 9-7 ENG
- SOT: 5-2 ENG
- Corners: 3-0 NET
- xG: 1.2 – 0.5 ENG
Spain vs England Head-to-Head
It’s been 6 years since these teams last met in the 2018 Nations League with Spain winning 2-1 and England 3-2.
The game prior was a friendly in 2016 which they drew 2-2. So goals have been the theme but it was some time ago.
In other tournaments these nations have met up plenty of times recently though with Spain winning 1-0 in the 2023 Women’s World Cup Final and England winning 1-0 in the Under-21 Final last summer as well.
Spain Stats
- Won 8 straight and outscored opponents 22-4 in that time
- They have just 1 loss (vs Colombia) in the last 18 (16-1-1) and have outscored their opponents 49-12
- The Colombia game is the only game in their last 16 where they have not scored
- Winners of 16/20 since 2023 giving them the highest win rate of any nation in that time
- Kept a clean sheet in 4/8
- But BTTS is 3-0 in their last 3 games
- Only given up multiple goals twice in 21 past games
England Stats
- The Under 2.5 is 6-1 in recent games
- England have only scored 6 regulation goals in their last 7 games
- But have only allowed 5 goals in their last 8 games
- Overall they are 16-7-3
- Undefeated in 6 and have just 2 losses in 20
- BTTS is 3-0 and 4-1
Spain vs England Prediction
I don’t hate England, I just hate the way they’ve played this tournament and that’s a fair sentiment I think many people, even England fans have had. But … they do just keep finding a way to get by. And Gareth Southgate just may end up being one of the most disliked England managers who at the same time manages to get the Three Lions their first major trophy since 1966.
Still … I keep repeating it. Seconds away from defeat against Slovakia. Minutes away from defeat to Switzerland. And minutes away from going to extra-time or maybe penalties with Netherlands where anything can happen. And … their PK goal by Kane was very questionable to be a PK. If not for that goal, maybe they lose. Or maybe Watkins’ goal saves them from defeat in the dying seconds instead of it being the winner and we go to ET.
That’s a whole lot of if and buts and maybes and if England wins I won’t be shocked. There are great players there, who are just not playing great.
But the most exciting and consistent team this tournament has been Spain and I’m not sure anyone can disagree on that.
They’re a perfect 6-0-0 and only needed extra-time once in that time to win. No last-second tying goals or PKs.
Spain’s path has been much tougher as well with wins over the likes of Italy, Croatia, Germany and France.
England’s best opponents were Denmark, Switzerland and Netherlands. All decent teams, but not great teams. And if not for Watkins’ goal they would have drawn them all in regulation.
They’ve not seen anything like Spain yet.
At this point though, the value is probably on England and the money has come on the Three Lions. Spain has lengthened from -150 to -138 at Bet365.
In a final anything can happen. And this may just be the year that every bounce goes England’s way and they lift the trophy. At +110 vs -138 certainly you’ll get a better pay out.
Alternatively, certainly both could get on the scoresheet. England have big-time players. And Spain has scored on everyone and even 2 on a France team that had previously not allowed any open play goals. So BTTS at +100 is an option.
I’ve been picking Spain all tournament though and they’ve not let me down so I’m happy to just ride with La Roja at -138 to lift the trophy.
- Spain vs England Prediction: Spain to Lift Trophy (-138)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
