The domestic leagues are winding down, with plenty on the line this weekend including in the final round of the Bundesliga. We cover our top soccer predictions and parlays in the Bundesliga, EPL, Serie A and La Liga below.
Soccer Picks and Parlays #1
Dortmund vs Kiel Prediction
Kiel’s relegation fate was sealed last week. They’ll be going down. And they’ve only had 2 wins in 10 and 3 in 17. Bt the 2 wins were recent as they made a late push for survival. They usually put on a show even in defeat, having scored in 10/11, where the BTTS is 9-1.
With 54 points and sitting in 5th, Dortmund could still jump Freiburg in 4th and draw level with Frankfurt in 3rd. So this game is huge for their chances at the UCL.
They’ve been on a tear in recent weeks only losing once in 9 games, being undefeated in 6 and having won each of their past 5 games, while piling up the goals in wins of 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 4-0 and 4-2. They’ve scored multiple goals in 8/9 as well.
Dortmund have the 2nd-most points in the last 15 rounds and the most over the last 10 rounds.
Kiel have easily allowed the most goals in the league at 77, 10 more than Bochum’s 67. When they last met both teams scored a ton but it was Kiel exploding for 4 with a 4-2 win.
This time I’d think it should be Dortmund winning by at least a couple of goals.
To add some value we can include some Guirassy props. During this run for Dortmund he has goals in 5 straight games, and a total of 8, plus 2 assists. Go further back and he has multiple shot attempts in 5 straight and 7/8 and multiple shots on target in 4/5 with at least 1 in 8 straight.
We’ll create a SGP at Bet365 here.
- Soccer Picks Today: Dortmund to win / game total Over 2.5 /Guirassy 1+ shot on target
Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction
The 2 teams above Dortmund meet here in 3rd Frankfurt (57 pts) and 4th Freiburg (55 pts).
Freiburg is more at risk of dropping out of the top 4 so this is a huge game for them and a win would tie their all-time record for highest finish (3rd) as well.
But it’s certainly not impossible for Dortmund to erase the goal difference between themselves and Frankfurt as well.
Freiburg has been a model of consistency for months. They’ve lost only twice in 14 games while being 4-1-0 in their last 5. While Freiburg has scored multiple goals in 4/5 they’ve also conceded at least 1 in 7/8. Naturally the BTTS is 7-1.
Frankfurt hasn’t been quite as good, despite the higher seeding. They’ve only lost 3 times in 12 games, but also have just 1 win in 5 and 2 in 9. They’ve not lost in 4 games with a 0-0 draw, 4-0 win and then 1-1 and 2-2 draws.
Away from home they’ve not won in 4 games, with 3 straight draws and have only 2 road wins in 10.
In January, it was 4-1 Frankfurt. And the game prior last year was 3-3. The BTTS has hit in 5/6 and 8/10.
As good as Freiburg has been, they may finish as the first team in Bundesliga history with a top-4 finish and negative goal-differential so defense has been an issue.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both to Score
RB Leipzig vs Stuttgart Prediction
It’s likely the best RBL can do is jump from 7th to 6th for a Conference League spot with a result and a better one than Mainz who sit 6th with both teams on 51 points.
Stuttgart have nothing on the line except a potential move from 9th to 8th.
These teams have met twice, once in the league, a 2-1 Stuttgart win and then also in the Pokal, a 3-1 Stuttgart win. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 5-0 and the BTTS is 6-0 while simply Over 1.5 is 9-0 in their recent meetings over multiple seasons.
Leipzig don’t come with good form with 0 wins in 4 and only 2 wins in 8. Their last 4 games have been a 1-1 draw, 4–0 loss and draws of 3-3 and 0–0. Last week’s 0-0 with Bremen which could’ve seen some goals was their first clean sheet in 7 games.
Stuttgart only have 4 wins in 13 but have won their past 2 games 1-0 and 4-0 and have now scored in 6/7.
I think this is tough to call. Both teams are missing several defenders so we could very easily see some goals. Neither are in good form, but RBL are at home and have a little more on the line. If picking a winner I’d lean on them. But I’m simply throwing in 2+ goals to get this parlay to even-money.
Benjamin Sesko has registered at least 1 shot on target in 5/6 and 8/11 so that could be another SGP option. That would bump this from -103 to +134.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: Dortmund to win / game total Over 2.5 /Guirassy 1+ shot on target / Freiburg vs Frankfurt btts / RBL vs Stuttgart over 1.5 (-103)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #2
Sunday soccer predictions in the EPL.
Brentford vs Fulham Prediction
Brentford can drop from 8th, but can’t move up, so it’s all about going out on a high to end the year and in their final home game. The Bees have won 4 straight by combined 11-5 margin and are undefeated in 6 with just 3 losses in 14.
Fulham are 11th. They could drop to 12th or rise to as high as 8th and pass Brentford. But they’ve been poor down the stretch at 2-0-6 in their past 8 and back-to-back losses in recent weeks.
It was 2-1 Fulham at Craven Cottage in November. It was 0-0 before that, but that was a rare low-scoring meeting. There’s been 3+ goals in 5 of the past 6 between them.
Yoane Wissa had 5 shots and 1 on target last game and in his last 5 games he’s had 16 shots and 8 on target with at least 1 in all 5.
Brentford to score and Wissa to have 1+ shot on target is a -200 SGP leg. Brentford are also rightly favored for the win given each team’s form.
- Soccer Picks Today: Brentford to score + Wissa to have 1+ shot on target
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
Arsenal are 2nd with 68 points, followed by Newcastle in 3rd with 66, then Man City with 65 in 4th, Chelsea 5th with 63 and Aston Villa also with 63 in 6th. So neither of these teams are 100% sure they’ll finish top 5.
The Magpies have had the Gunners’ number this season, winning 1-0 in the EPL and then 2-0 and 2-0 in the Carabao Cup.
At one point Arsenal hadn’t lost in 12 games, but after a 2-2 draw with Palace they lost 1-0, 2–1, and 2-1 and had a 2-2 draw with Liverpool last week so are now winless in 5 and have given up multiple goals in 4/5. They’ve scored in 14/15.
It’s the opposite for Newcastle, have suffered defeat just once in 10 games being 8-1-1 and outscoring opponents 24-9. They’ve scored in 11 straight.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both to score
- Parlay Picks: Brentford to score + Wissa to have 1+ shot on target / Arsenal vs Newcastle both to score (+124)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #3
Sunday’s picks in La Liga and Serie A.
Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction
Barca wrapped up the title on Wednesday beating Espanyol 2-0. Barca has scored multiple goals in 6 straight.
Villarreal is 5th, holding the final UCL spot with Betis trailing behind with 59 points. Villarreal likely have the spot on lock but could still slip out of the top 5 if they lose 2 games and Betis win both of their remaining games.
Barca won 5-1 earlier this season. Last year was 4-3 Barca and 5-3 Villarreal.
I would’ve loved to bet on goals in this game, but now Barcelona won’t need to win. The atmosphere should be a party so they’ll likely still score but won’t need to.
Villarreal have won 4 straight, 1-0, 4-2, 1-0 and 3-0 and are 6-2-1 in their past 9. I would think they’ll score but on the road they’ve conceded in 18/20 overall road games.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both teams to score
Roma vs AC Milan Prediction
6th Roma have 63 points, are sitting in the Conference League spot and can still easily jump into the top 4 with Lazio and Juve only having 64 points each.
Milan are 8th and technically can also jump to 4th but with 60 points it’s much less likely.
Roma will be more rested having been off since Monday. Meanwhile, Milan were shut out in the Coppa Italia Final losing 1-0 to Bologna on Wednesday.
These teams have played twice, a 1-1 draw in Serie A and a 3-1 Milan win in the Coppa. The BTTS has hit in 11 of the past 12 and 14/16.
Recently, Roma also lost their last game, 2-1 to Atalanta on Monday. That snapped a run of 7 games undefeated and gives them only 2 losses in 17. It did keep their scoring streak alive, now at 21 games in all comps. Giving up 2 goals to La Dea is just the 2nd time in 13 games they gave up more than 1 goal.
Milan went into the final having won 4 straight and they too haven’t lost often with only 3 losses in 12. They’ve scored in 15/17 themselves, but conceded in 13/16.
Roma’s games are always tight. I would think there is some letdown for Milan after losing in the final. Roma to win or to score.
- Soccer Picks Today: Roma to score
Lecce vs Torino Prediction
With 2 games to go and 4 points away from 10th, 11th-Torino is unlikely to finish in the top-half of the table, if that even matters to them.
Lecce are 18th, with 28 points, 1 point back of 17th Venezia for safety so this will matter more to them.
But then again all their matches for weeks have been like this and they still haven’t won a game in 13. The closest they’ve come is three 1-1 draws in their last 11. Only once in 13 have they scored more than a single goal. They haven’t been getting blown out though and lots of Unders have hit. In their last 13 there’s only been more than 3 goals once and recent scores have been 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1.
Torino has only won 1 o 7 and 0/3 themselves and have been shut out in 2/3. There’s been Under 3 goals in each of their past 8.
When they met in September it was 0-0 and other recent scores have been 2-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-0, all Torino wins.
Torino is the highest Under 2.5 team in Serie A at 26-10, while Lecce is 21-15 to the Under. Bump it to Under 3.5 and Torino is 28-8 and Lecce 27-9.
Under 3.5, 2.5 or a draw in these soccer picks.
- Soccer Picks Today: Under 3.5
- Parlay Picks: Roma to score / Lecce vs Torino under 3.5 / Barcelona vs Villarreal both to score (+105)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
