Soccer Predictions Today – EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie a (Dec 21-22)

Another weekend of European soccer is here and I’m hoping to go into the Christmas season on a high with this weekend’s soccer predictions and soccer picks and parlays.

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Soccer Picks and Parlays #1

Here are some EPL picks for Saturday.

Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction

With Man City’s slumping form they’re now 5th and just 2 points better than 7th Aston Villa. 

Letting in 2 goals late to rivals Man U last weekend means they’re 1-2-8 in 11, with just 1 clean sheet and multiple goals allowed in 10 of those 11 games. 

It’s a full-on disaster for City at this point with no end in sight. 

Villa lost last week but have wins in 3/4 and in their last 20 home games in all comps they’ve scored in 17, only failing vs Juventus, Man U and Arsenal. 

Villa won 1-0 at Villa Park last year but City won 4-1 in the most recent meeting at the Etihad. Then the BTTS has hit in 6/7 and 8/10 with City scoring 2+ vs Villa in 11/13.

• Soccer Picks Today: Both to Score

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

11th Brentford hosts 4th Forest. 

Brentford just lost in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday 3-1 to Newcastle. But that was the Cup and it was on the road. In the EPL their games average 3.9 GPG and their home games average the highest total at 5.0. 

Against Newcastle and Chelsea last weekend Brentford left it late on the road to score but they still did, making their recent games see totals of 4, 3, 6, 4 and 5 goals and the BTTS & Over 2.5 cashing in them all. Only twice in any game all season have the Bees not scored, both away games. 

Let’s look at their home games in all comps this season. It’s a long list but worth mentioning: 2-1, 3-1, 3-1, 1-1, 5-3, 4-3, 1-1, 3-2, 4-1 and then 4-2. WOW! They’ve still not lost at home in the EPL, but then haven’t won on the road. 

Forest have won 2-1 and 3-2 in recent games and have only not scored in 3 times in 17 overall matches themselves this season. The 2 recent times were away to City and Arsenal. Brentford is not City and Arsenal.

Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen BTTS and 4 have seen the OVer 2.5 hit too, including the most recent, but back in January, a 3-2 Brentford home win. 

Forest is good enough to score and win any game this year but this mostly comes down to the clear and obvious trend of a boatload of goals always being scored at both ends of the pitch in Brentford games. And that’s not even counting that 3 of the top 7 top scorers are in this game with Mbeumo and Wissa from Brentford and Wood from Forest. And the Bees have given up the most shots on target against. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Both to Score
• Parlay Picks: AV vs MCI btts / BRE vs NF btts (+142)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #2

3 games on Saturday in the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A for our soccer predictions.

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Monchengladbach Prediction

Neither team is great in the standings with Gladbach 11th and Hoffenheim 14th. 

But one would expect goals based on their history. Their last meeting in April was 4-3 Hoffenheim and the BTTS & Over is on  5-0 run, with just BTTS being 9-0.

And this season, while both are an equal 7-7 to O/U 2.5 totals, Hoffenheim’s games average 3.2 GPG and Gladbach’s 3.0. They’re also both 12-2 to simply over 1.5 totals. 

However, Hoffenheim has scored just 2 goals in 6 overall recent games, have 3 straight draws and have 1 win 10. They have only failed to score at home once all season in all matches, and 0 times in the Bundesliga. They actually haven’t been shut out at home in the league since February 2023. 

Gladbach is in much better form with only 1 loss in 6 and 2 in 9. Only twice all season and once in 11 recent games have they failed to score. They have conceded in 3 straight. Gladbach is coming off a win but hasn’t won back-to-back games in the Bundesliga since May 2022 and has only 2 road league wins in 20 away games going back to last season 

Hoffenheim’s xGA is only better than Kiel’s and Bochum’s. They’ve given up the 5th most goals with 26 in 14 games. Meanwhile, the Gladbach defense is actually one of the better units this season giving up 19 goals, to rank 4th. Only behind Bayern, Leipzig and Union. 

Both teams rank among the top 7 in BTTS games though. I think this is hard to split. I just want to ask for Over 1.5 goals. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

This has not been a high-scoring matchup lately overall with scores of 3-0, 1-0, 1-0 an d 1-0. 

Barca are still 1st and have easily scored the most goals, but are in terrible form. At least when it comes to La Liga where they have 1 win in 6 (Mallorca) and were shut out 1-0 at home by the lowly Leganes last week. Lamine Yamal is out with an ankle injury for 3-4 weeks which won’t help. That could see Ferran Torres stepping into the spot as a replacement. 

Atleti are 2nd, but are tied with Barca on 38 points and own the best defense. They’re also in some of the best form they’ve ever been in having now won 11 straight in all comps outscoring opponents 31-7.

My instinct was BTTS, but even at home, Barca may not be able to be trusted. If you’re picking a winner it has to be Atleti. Or perhaps in a parlay, Atleit on the double chance, draw no bet or to simply score. At +300 odds on the moneyline, that opens all kinds of good options.

• Soccer Picks Today: Atletico Madrid to score

Lecce vs Lazio Prediction

14th Lecce hosts 5th Lazio. Last year both won at home, Lecce 2-1 and Lazio 1-0. 

Lecce comes in this weekend though at 3-2-2 with just 1 loss in 5, while scoring in 5 straight. 

Lazio just got thumped 6-0 by Inter and have now lost 2/3 in Serie A while allowing 9 goals in those games, but have won 3/4 overall with 2 wins over Napoli and another over Ajax. 

Lecce are the league’s lowest scorers with 10 goals, 4 fewer than 19th-placed Monza. They’ve not even been good defensively giving up 27 goals in 16 games so the fact they’re even 14th is kinda shocking. But have scored in each of their last five under new coach Marco Giampaolo.

Lazio’s 30 GF are only fewer than the 39 of Atalanta and 40 of Inter Milan. Getting back the suspended Taty Castellanos will also help the offense. 

Lecce may score. But it’s unlikely they will outscore Lazio. So I’d expect Lazio to bounce back and win. But … Lecce have won at home vs Lazio in 3 straight meetings, all by 2-1 scores. So let’s just ask Lazio to score to round out this parlay. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Lazio to score
• Parlay Picks: HOF vs BMG over 1.5 / ATM to score / LAZ to score (-111)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #3

These soccer picks and parlays will conclude on Sunday in the Bundesliga and EPL.

Wolfsburg vs Dortmund Prediction

Three teams have seen their games hit the BTTS at a 79% clip and these are 2 of them alongside Stuttgart. Only Leverkusen at 86% have seen more. 

This has been a low-scoring matchup though in recent meetings with scores of 0-0 with Wolfsburg winning in extra-time in the Pokal this October when Jonas Wimnd scored in the 117’ minute, and 1-1 and 1-0 last season. Only 1/5 recent meetings have cashed BTTS Yes.

Dortmund won 4/5 after that Pokal match but have since seen scores of 1-1, 1-1, 3-2 (L) and 1-1. 

Wolfsburg had been undefeated in 8 heading into last week until losing 3-2 away to Freiburg. With that loss, plus wins of 4-3, 3-0 and 5-1 prior, Wolves games have been must-see of late. And they have scored 18 goals now in their past 6. I remember betting the BTTS in the Pokal game between these sides and was let down so I’ll play it safer this time and just ask Wolfsburg to score.

• Soccer Picks Today: Wolfsburg to score

Leicester vs Wolves Prediction

Both Leicester and Wolves have seen 81% of their games with goals coming at both ends. That’s tied with Fulham and Brighton and only behind the 88% of Brentford. 

This is an ugly one with 17th Leicester hosting 19th Wolves. Combined the 2 have allowed 74 goals across a combined 32 games.

I was right to pull out of the Leicester BTTS bet last week and just ask for Over 1.5 as they got blasted away to Newcastle 4-0. That leaves them with 1 win in 9 overall matches. But it did hit had hit in 8/9 before that. Overall in all matches Leicester has scored in 16/19 and conceded in 16/19. The Foxes have seen 2+ balls find the back of their net in 5/6.

And it’s no better for Wolves who have lost 2-1, 2-1, 4-0 and 4-2 in recent games. It’s only 3 wins in 18 games across all matches this season — 1 vs last-placed Southampton, 1 vs Burnley in the EFL Cup and then another vs Fulham. They’ve conceded in 16/18 but have at least scored in 16/18 too. Losing to Ipswich last week finally cost Gary O’Neil his job. He’s been replaced with Saudi Pro league manager Vitor Pereira. He has a ton of experience, but not in major league in recent years and had 16 wins and 10 draws with his time with Al-Shabab. Still, Wolves players and fans had grown tired of O’Neill, so perhaps they get that “new coach bump”. Or they’re even more disorganized. Tough to say.

So who plays worse here on Sunday? These teams have both been ugly and both could have as many as 7 players out injured or suspended, but the main scoring threats for both should be in the lineup. It is very likely a good BTTS game. With the new coach circumstances at Wolves, I’ll just ask Leicester to score. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Leicester to score

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

This looks too easy. Can Everton be the team to derail the high-flying Blues?

Chelsea played in the Conference League Thursday with a rotated lineup vs Shamrock Rovers and cruised to a 5-1 win with 4 different scorers and a brace from Marc Guiu. 

So they have now 8 straight wins, are undefeated in 11 and have outscored opponents 26-8 in those 8 wins. They have conceded in 5 straight.

Everton is just 16th in the EPL at 3-6-6. The Toffees have just 1 win in 7. And have been shut out in 5/6. But then they’ve kept clean sheets in 4/5 and have just 2 defeats in 11 as they’ve been piling up draws with 6 draws in those 11 games.

They drew away to Arsenal last week so perhaps … they stand a chance of keeping it close … maybe. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Chelsea double chance
• Parlay Picks: WOLF to score / LEI to score / CHE double chance (-121) 

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