Let’s break down this weekend’s soccer predictions, picks and parlays where I’ll go through the top leagues in Europe and try to create a few simple parlays from the many leagues and games available for this week’s soccer picks today.
Soccer Picks and Parlays #1
All-EPL on Saturday.
Arsenal vs Leicester Prediction
This looks like the obvious play of the week in the EPL. And while Arsenal will have UCL action to look ahead to, after a deflating 2-2 draw with Man City last week in which they were seconds away from coming out with the win despite being down a man for the 2nd half, they’ll be desperate to get back to winning ways against the newly-promoted Leicester.
The Gunners have yet to lose at 3-2-0, have conceded just 3 goals, 2 of those came last week vs City and Leicester have yet to win at 0-3-2, but have drawn their last 2 games.
Arsenal blew out Bolton 5-1 in the Cup this week while Leicester needed PKs to get past Walsall after a 0-0 draw.
On the road they lost 2-1 and drew 2-2, so have given up multiple in both away games. All 5 of Leicester’s games have seen the BTTS cash so if you think they can score that certainly will up the value of any bet in this game.
Arsenal to win or score 2 increases the odds a little.
- Soccer Picks Today: Arsenal over 1.5
Brentford vs West Ham United Prediction
Last year both won at home, Brentford 3-2 and West Ham 4-2. In 7 all-time meetings only once have there not been at least 2 goals scored between them.
Look to this season and both have been involved in some high-scoring games, both among the top 7 in highest average goals per match with 3.2 in Brentford’s and 2.8 in West Ham’s.
Brentford is 4-1 to O2.5 and 5-0 to O1.5 and West Ham is 3-2 O2.5 and also 5-0 to O1.5.
Neither is winning much with just 3 wins between them in 10 combined games and each giving up 9 GA.
Brentford has conceded in all 5, scored in 4 and BTTS & O2.5 is 4-1.
West Ham has conceded in 4, scored in 4 just BTTS is 3-2.
I’d like to say BTTS, but there are also several players missing for both, and scoring players. Fullkrug is injured for West Ham, so too are Thiago and Wissa for Brentford, while the Bees have as many as 8 players listed on the injury report. So let’s go safer and just ask fro Over 1.5.
West Ham did also just get routed 5-1 to Liverpool in the Carabao cup this week too. Brentford’s defense could give up plenty of chanced as they’ve given up the most shots on target, tied with Bournemouth.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction
Through 5 rounds there is still just 1 loss between these teams and it’s Brighton who are still yet to lose at 2-3-0, having drawn 3 straight games
With only 4 goals conceded Brighton actually have one of the top defenses in the Prem and they’ve given up the joint-fewest shots on target with 14, tied with Man City.
Chelsea has only given up 5 goals themselves and haven’t lost in 4 rounds, but their 11 GF are 2nd-most, only behind Man City. Granted 6 came vs Wolves but they also won 3-0 away to West Ham last week.
Chelsea won 3-2 and 2-1 last season and haven’t failed to score vs Brighton in 8. Then again, the BTTS bet has hit in 7/8 and the BTTS & O2.5 in 5 of the last 6.
Chelsea also put up 5 vs Barrow in the Carabao Cup this week and only an opening day 2-0 loss to Man City this season is the only time in 14 competitive games they’ve not scored.
- Soccer Picks Today: Chelsea to score
- Parlay Picks: ARS over 1.5 / BRE vs WH over 1.5 / CHE to score (???)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #2
This one will focus on Saturday’s Bundesliga action.
My eyes light up to bet the Bundesliga each week by simply betting on the goals. So far the average GPG is 3.50. So far 13/18 teams average 3.00 GPG in their matches or more, only 3/18 have seen less than 50% of their games go Under 2.5, 12/18 have seen 4 games finish with 2+ goals, 15/18 have seen 75% finish with 2+, and only 3 teams have seen less than half of their games not see the BTTS bet hit.
Mainz vs Heidenheim Prediction
Both are mid-pack, Mainz 1-2-1, Heidenheim 2-0-2. Both have scored 8 goals in 4 games and then have given up 7, Heidenheim and 8, Mainz.
All 4 games for both have seen 2+. Heidenheim has only seen 1/4 hit BTTS, but all 4 for Mainz have cashed the bet.
This was a low-scoring matchup last year at 1-0 Heidenheim and 1-1.
But Mainz have seen 11 straight Bundesliga games going back to last season with 2+ goals and they’ve been on a tear since March with only 1 loss in 13 while getting on the scoresheet in 18/19.
Heidenheim being shut out 3-0 to Freiburg last game was the first time they failed to score 12 games themselves in the Bundesliga, with just 3 losses in that time. 12 of those 13 have seen 2+.
If you were to count all comps and an impressive pre-season, Heidenheim has won 12/16, but lost 3-0 and 4-2 in their last 2 games.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Freiburg vs St. Pauli Prediction
Freiburg has started strong at 3-0-1, sitting 3rd, and they’ll face newcomers St. Puali, 0-1-3, 17th, who have scored just 1 goal and conceded 6.
In all comps Frieburg has only failed to score 3 times in 21 games going back into February. All 3 of those were on the road – Bayern Muninch (BUN), Cologne (BUN) and West Ham (UEL). At home in any comp they’ve scored in 13 straight and 25/26.
- Soccer Picks Today: Freiburg to score
Wolfsburg vs Stuttgart Prediction
We talked about a ton of BTTS teams and these two fit the bill with Stuttgart cashing a perfect 4/4 and Wolfsburg 3/4.
Stuttgart is 2-1-1 and have socred the 3rd most goals, 12, after last weeks beat-down of Dortmund 5-1.
They could be looking ahead to a home UCL game Oct. 1 but still, they’ve not failed to score in 25 games in all comps going back into January.
Wolfsburg have only won 1/4 to start the season and it came vs newcomers Holstein Kiel. Otherwise it’s losses by scores of 3-2, 2-1 and 4-3. But they’ve still put up 2 vs Bayern and 3 vs Leverkusen and go back to last season and they’ve scored in 11/13 league games, failing away to Bayern and RBL.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score
- Parlay Picks: MAI vs HEI over 1.5 / FREI to score / WOLF vs STU btts (+114)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #3
Saturday in the Bundeslig, La Liga and Serie A.
Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
For years Leverkusen put up a fight and got their share of goals but rarely got the best of Bayern. Last season they drew 2-2 in Bayern and won 3-0 at home and the season prior won 2-1 making them undefeated in 3. No matter the winner, there’s been 3 or more goals in 14 of the last 16 meetings. Both teams have found the back of the net in 13 of those 16 games.
This season both are off to flying starts, Bayern 1st scoring 16 and allowing just 3 and Leverkusen 2nd, scoring 13, allowing 9 and finally suffering 1 loss.
While Bayern have been blowing teams away, Leverkusen’s games have been more end-to-end with scores of 3-2, 3-2, 4-1 and 4-3.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-188)
Osasuna vs Barcelona Prediction
These days Barca themselves could score 2 or 3 any game and hit an Over bet. It was only 1 goal Wednesday though beating Getafe 1-0. That still leaves them perfect after 7 rounds at 7-0-0 scoring 23 and allowing just 5, seeing their games average 4.0 GPM.
Osasuna has seen 5/7 games finish with 2+ goals but had a rare low-scoring game themselves this week drawing Valencia 0-0. This came after other scorelines of 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 and 4-0.
The Catalans won 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0 vs Osa last year and are 8-1-0 in the past 9.
Everything is flowing for Barca right now. They should win but also have the UCL coming up.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Bologna vs Atalanta Prediction
Both have fallen off from last season’s highs with Atalanta 12th at 2-0-3 and Bologna right below in 13th at 1-3-1, not winning or losing much, mostly just drawing but they got their first win last week 2-1 over Monza.
La Dea’s games have remained high-scoring as the only team to both score and concede in the double digits so far. At 4.2 GPM their games easily see the most goals with AC Milan next at 3.6.
Atalanta are 1 of 3 (Milan and Lazio) to be 5-0 to O2.5, whereas Bologna is 3-2. However, both have seen at least 2, O1.5 in all 5 of their games.
This hasn’t always been the highest scoring matchup, though Bologna has won 3 straight by scores of 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 and then Atalanta won 2-1 prior to that so Over 1.5 has hit in 3/4.
Atalanta you always think can score. But then Bologna at home in any competition has just 1 loss in 23 games (Inter), scoring in 19 of them, an Atlanta have allowed the 2nd most shots on target in Serie A.
La Dea suffered a shock 3-2 home defeat to Como this week they’ll need to rebound from but it did see Lookman extend a scoring streak to 4 league games.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: BM vs BL btts & O2.5 / OSA vs BAR O1.5 / BOL vs ATA O1.5 (+132)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #4
Into Sunday with some EPL and La Liga action.
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction
Both are languishing mid-pack with 10 points, Spurs 10th and Man U 11th. Neither is letting tons of goals with just 5 allowed. Man U have also only scored 5, compared to Spurs’ 9.
When they last met in was January at Old Trafford and that ended 2-2. There’s not been fewer than 2 goals scored in a match between them in any of the past 11 meetings. There’s been 3+ in 9/11.
In the Europa League this week Man U took a big setback drawing Dutch side Twente 1-1 at home. Tottenham were home to Azerbaijan side Qarabag and won 3-0.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score
Celta Viga vs Girona Prediction
Celta’s games average 4.0, they’re 6-1 to O2.5 totals and 6-1 to O1.5.
So long as those trends continue there’s no reason not to bet on goals in their games. Especially vs a team like Girona who are 6-1 to O1.5 totals themselves.
Now Girona do have UCL play to look ahead to, but then are fresher playing Wednesday vs Thursday.
If you were to look for a reason to not back goals it would be that the past 5 scores between them have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-0, with Giroa winning 1-0 in both last season.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla Prediction
After 3 straight wins of 3-2, 2-0 and 2-1, Bilbao are 3rd only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Sevilla is off to another slow start at 2-2-3 but do have wins in 2/3. Both wins came at home and vs Valladolid and Getafe, not top teams. Include last season and they’ve not won in 6 road games in La Liga, conceding in 5, and have just 4 road wins in 24.
Bilbao at home is as a close to an auto-bet as there could be. In all comps, when playing at San Mames, they have 1 loss in 26, recently, losing 1-0 to Atletico Madrid, with that being only 1 of 2 games in that time they didn’t score. The other being vs Barcelona.
Sevilla is a step down. Bilbao wins, double chance, draw no bet or simply to score.
- Soccer Picks Today: Bilbao win or score
- Parlay Picks: MNU vs TOT btts / CV vs GIR over 1.5 / BIL to score (-107)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
