Soccer Picks Today – Picks and Parlays in Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga & Serie A

Last week we saw the EPL, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, among others kick off, and this week the Bundesliga follows suit as well, which personally is one of my favorite leagues to bet with so much scoring. 1-1 was the most common score, followed by 2-1, 85% of games saw at least 2 goals and 16/18 teams saw over 50% of their games hit the BTTS bet. The average goals in Bundesliga matches was 3.22.

So let’s get into this weekend’s top soccer predictions and soccer picks today for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Soccer Picks and Parlays #1

Let’s start in La Liga on Friday.

For a league not known for high-scoring games, La Liga came out with a bang with 9/10 Week 1 games seeing goals from both sides. Only Espanyol failed to get on the scoresheet. 

Celta Vigo vs Valencia Prediction

Celta Vigo beat Alaves at home 2-1 last week while Valencia lost at home 2-1 to Barcelona.

Last season Celta won 3-1 in Valencia and they drew 2-2 in the second meeting. 

Celta’s games were relatively high-scoring by La Liga standards last year averaging 2.71 GPM. 71% of their games saw at least 2 goals, while 58%, tied for the 3rd most, saw BTTS.

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

Sevilla vs Villarreal Prediction

Sevilla drew away to Las Palmas 2-2, while Villarreal were involved in their own 2-2, at home to Atletico Madrid. 

Last year it was 1-1 in December and 3-2 Villarreal recently in May. Other recent scores have been 2-1, 1-1 and 1-1. 

In 10/11 meetings there’s been at least 2 goals scored. 

These teams saw some of the most BTTS games last year with Villarreal at 79% (the most) and Sevilla 58% (tied for 3rd most).

The 3.42 GPM in Villarreal’s games was 2nd highest while the 2.68 for Sevilla was 9th highest.

Sevilla added 7 players this offseason including Kelechi Iheanacoh up top. Villarreal also make 7 signings including ex-Arsenal man Nicolas Pepe who was last playing in Turkey after the EPL didn’t work out. They lost top scorer Alexander Sorloth from last year who scored against them last week with Atleti. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

We’ll round out the parlay in the Bundesliga.

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Gladbach gets their season rolling after a poor 14th-place finish last year. The 56 GF was 7th, but the 67 allowed was 3rd worst. That all added up to 3.62 GPG in their matches, the 3rd highest.

Leverkusen won the league, won the Pokal, went undefeated in 40 German games last season and then won the German Super Cup last weekend vs Stuttgart. They drew 2-2 in regulation with goals from Boniface and Schick despite playing most of the game down a man, with a red card by Martin Terrier in the 37’. The game needed PKs where Leverkusen won 4-3. 

Most of that team returns for Leverkusen and they added Girona captain Aleix Garcia to the midfield. 

For all the goals Gladbach conceded last year, oddly, they were the 1 team who shut out Leverkusen the only time last season in a 0-0 draw in January. The other meeting was 3-0 Leverkusen though.

I’d love to say BTTS here. But Leverkusen kept the most clean sheets last season and never lose. So it’s likely a Leverkusen win or double chance in a parlay, but … betting against the home team on the standalone Friday is also not always the best bet. So let’s go super safe with another Over 1.5 to get us to even money in this parlay.

But I do think all three have good BTTS potential. So for better odds you could also pick one of these Friday games to go BTTS. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: CV vs VAL over 1.5 / SEV v VIL over 1.5 / BMG vs BL over 1.5 (+100)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #2

Here’s a Saturday parlay from the EPL, Serie A and Bundesliga.

Man City vs Ipswich Prediction

This has to be the free square on the Bingo card. I should’ve bet Liverpool to beat Ipswich last week but wanted to see how they played with a new coach and with Ipswich hosting their first EPL game, in an early game, I stayed away, and it was 2-0 Liverpool. The Reds had 63% possession, 18 shots and 5 on target.

Now Ipswich travel to the Etihad and there’s no reason not to expect a similar result or worse. City went to Stamford Bridge and won 2-0, though it was 1-0 until the 84’.

I don’t want to be getting into a range where I’m asking a team to win by 3 or 4 goals, but in a parlay, Man City to win by 2, or score 2 or 3 goals seems like an easy choice.

• Soccer Picks Today: Man City -1.5

Inter Milan vs Lecce Prediction

It was a 2-2 draw for Inter away to Genoa last week, while Lecce got thumped 4-0 at home to Atalanta and on Monday, so they’ll have a little less rest.

The current champs will want to get their first win and what better time than the home opener vs an opponent they’ve not lost to in 6 meetings with the last 4 all being wins by scores of 4-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-1. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Inter Milan win

Freiburg vs Stuttgart Prediction

It was 5-0 and 3-1 Stuttgart last year and only once in 7 games have there not been 2+ goals between them. Go back further there’s been 3+ in 13/15 and 20/23.

Obviously we’re going back far, but no matter the season, these teams seem to produce goals when they meet. 

It’s a new-look Frieburg on the sidelines, as Christan Streich has moved on, giving them their first new coach since 2010/11. That man will be Julian Schuster, a former Freiburg player, making his coaching debut.

Freiburg’s pre-season saw them draw 2-2 and win 3-2, before a 4-0 Pokal win over a lower-level side last weekend. Last year they were a mid-pack team in 10th but actually struggled at home at just 5-7-5, ranking 15th.

Stuttgart had an incredible year finishing 2nd. This season started with a 2-2 draw vs Leverkusen in the German Super Cup last weekend before they lost in PKs. 

Stuttgart have lost some key players in Guirassy, Anton and Ito, but held onto 18-goal man Deniz Undav. They did bring in former Augsburg captain Ermedin Demirović who scored 15 goals last season, making him 6th overall.

Their pre-season included an 8-1 win, 0-0 draw and wins of 5-3, 5-2 and 4-0.

Last year Stuttgart only failed to score 3 times and Freiburg 6.

If you wanted to make a case against goals, it could be that Stuttgart kept the 2nd-most clean sheets last season behind Leverkusen with 12 and Freiburg weren’t far behind keeping 10.

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: Man City -1.5 / Inter Milan win / Freiburg vs Stuttgart over 1.5 (-112)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #3

Let’s go all Bundesliga for Parlay #3, all on Saturday.

Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Hoffenheim were 7th in the Bundesliga last season, while Holstein Kiel was 2nd behind St. Pauli by 1 point in the 2.Bundesliga and earned promotion for their first trip to the top division.

If you bet on the Bundesliga last season and you liked betting goals, then you know Hoffenheim was your team. 

The 3.88 GPM in their games was 2nd highest, 97% of their games went Over 1.5, 79% went Over 2.5, 62% went Over 3.5, 85% saw BTTS and they kept the fewest clean sheets of any team at just 6%.  

Hoffenheim did lose 16-goal man Maximilian Beier who left for Dortmund, but retained 15-goal man Andrej Kramaric.

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction

Dortmund was just 5th in the Bundesliga but went all the way to the UCL Final.

Dortmund lost 12-goal man Niclas Fullkrug to West Ham, Marco Reus to the LA Galaxy and Mats Hummels.

Dortmund have made many signings though: centre-back Waldemar Anton (Stuttgart), midfielder Pascal GroB (Brighton), forward Maximilian Beier (Hoffenheim), forward Serhou Guirassy (Stuttgart), and right-back Yan Coto (Girona on loan)

So there’s lots of changes this year for the Black and Yellow.

And that’s not counting new manager Nuri Sahin who replaces Edin Terzic who quit 2 weeks after taking Dortmund to the Champions League Final. Sahin won the title with Dortmund as a player back in 2010/11 back when Jurgen Klopp was in charge.

Eintracht Frankfurt were 6th last season qualifying for the Europa League at, 13-11-10, scoring 58, allowing 52, with an average of 3.24 GPM in their games (6th most) and BTTS hitting 68% of the time, tied for the 3rd most. 

They lost star defender Willian Pacho to PSG, but brought in Can Uzun who had 19 goals and four assists in 32 appearances in all competitions for Nuremberg last season.

The trend here is high-scoring games and Dortmund wins. It was 3-3 and 3-1 Dortmund last year and BvB are 5-1-0 in the last 6 with other scores being 4-0, 2-1, 3-2 and 5-2.

After a 1-1 draw and 4-0 loss to start the pre-season, Dortmund won 3-2, 2-0 and 4-1. The 2-0 came over Aston Villa and the last 4-1 was in the Pokal.

But then Frankfurt just won 4-1 in the Pokal as well and have won 6/7 games prior to the kick-off outscoring opponents 40-7.

Dortmund just added 2 of the top 5 scorers from the league last season (44 goals), however Girassy is out until September with a knee injury.

Frankfurt ended last season with 1 win 9 games. On the road, they often struggle with just 4 road wins in their past 28 Bundesliga games.

I could see both teams scoring or a Dortmund win, but there’s also a lot of changes here. So let’s just ask Dortmund not to lose on the double chance.

• Soccer Picks Today: Dortmund double chance

RB Leipzig vs Bochum Prediction

Leipzig finished 4th last season while Bochum just avoided relegation in 16th.

At home, RBL also had the 4th-best record at 11-4-2, outscoring opponents 40-12.

Whereas away from home is where Bochum struggled most. They had the 12th-best home record, but 18th (worst) away record at 2-4-11 being outscored 45-16.

RBL brings back both Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko who had 24 and 14 goals each and that should be too much for Bochum here.

• Soccer Picks Today: Leipzig to win
• Parlay Picks: HOF vs HK over 1.5 / DOR double chance / RBL win (-127)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #4

Into Sunday in the EPL, Serie A and La Liga.

Wolves vs Chelsea Prediction

Both teams suffered 2-0 defeats on opening weekend. Chelsea home to Man City and Wolves away to Arsenal. Only Everton had a worse Week 1, losing 3-0.

When these teams met last season the scores were 2-1 and 4-2 Wolves.

Both finished the season seeing 66% of their games hit the BTTS bet, only 4 teams saw that hit at a higher rate.

• Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score

Torino vs Atalanta Prediction

After a poor showing in the Super Cup vs Real Madrid, Atalanta responded by thumping Lecce 4-0 on Monday with 2 goals each from Marco Brescianini and Mateo Retegui, so it’s a shorter turnaround for them compared to Torino who drew AC Milan on Saturday. They were actually leading that game 2-0 until late Milan goals in the 89’ and 95’ minutes.

Despite Torino games historically being lower-scoring that wasn’t the case last week and it’s rarely the case when these teams meet. 

Both won 3-0 at home last year and other scores have been 2-1, 3-1, 4-4, 2-1, 3-3, 4-2, 7-0 and 3-2 in past seasons.

This looks like BTTS or simply Over 1.5 in this parlay. That would bring the parlay to +121 which is ok by itself.

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

Real Madrid vs Valladolid Prediction

Valladolid were shutting out Espanyol 1-0 on MD1, while Madrid found themselves in a shocking 1-1 draw on the island of Mallorca. After a dominating Super Cup win over Atalanta, it was shock result, but Mallorca is a tough place to play and I didn’t feel like it would be as easy at it looked, which is why I only included Madrid to score in a parlay.

Madrid is not used to not winning, even draws aren’t that common. But still, they are undefeated in 28 games, with only 1 loss in ET in the Copa del Rey in their last 50 games.

They’ll be looking for a big response in their home opener and this could be the perfect opponent. Madrid won 2-0 and 6-0 in their most recent meetings in the 2022/23 season. Valladolid was relegated that season but have made a quick return after finishing 2nd behind Leganes in the Segunda last season.

Certainly if you’re betting this alone you’ll need to bring in the spread for Madrid to win by 2 or 3 or keep a clean sheet or get creative in a SGP. For this parlay, I just want Madrid to win.

Obviously adding Madrid doesn’t add much but at +148 now in this parlay it’s good enough for me. You could also ask them to score 2 or win by 2 for even more.

• Soccer Picks Today: Real Madrid win
• Parlay Picks: WOL vs CHE btts / TOR vs ATA over 1.5 / RM win (+151)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #5

1 more from Sunday in the Bundesliga and La Liga.

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction

It was a 12th-place finish for Wolfsburg last season and shockingly a 3rd-place finish for Bayern Munich, stopping a run of many years winning the title.

Harry Kane debuted in Germany and led all scorers with 38 goals but it wasn’t enough. This year Vincent Kompany has been tasked with getting Bayern back to the summit as the new head coach and winning trophies, as last year was the first since 2011/12 that Bayern didn’t win something.

This off-season they bring in Olise, Ito and Palhinha among others.

So far, they’ve dominated in friendlies with a 1-1 draw and wins of 14-1, 2-1, 3-2, 4-0 and 4-0. In their only competitive game, they beat lower-side Ulm 4-0 in the Pokal. 

It was 2-0 and 2-1 Bayern last season and they’re 18-2-0 vs Wolfsburg in the past 20 meetings. 

Wolfsburg’s games didn’t see tons of goals last year at 2.85, the 4th-fewest, but at 4.09, Bayern’s were the most goal-heavy in the league as they can always score but were shaky on the back-end. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction

Atleti drew 2-2 in Villarreal but one goal they allowed was an own goal, while Girona drew 1-1 away to Betis, with only 2 shots on target.

Both teams won at home last season. Girona 4-3 and then Atleti 3-1. 

Atleti did lose their last home game last season 4-1. But at home they’re usually as close to a lock for a win as there can be. In their last 30 home La Liga games they are 26-2-2.

After their best-ever finish, 3rd, and a place in the UCL, Girona do need to adjust after losing Savinho, Artem Dovbyk and Aleix Garcia this offseason. 

Atleti on the other hand, brought in Julian Alvarez, Alexander Sorloth, Conor Gallagher and managed to ship out an underperforming Joao Felix to Chelsea.

BTTS is certainly an option but Girona has weakened this offseason. So instead we could bet for an Atleti win or to score Over 1.5

• Soccer Picks Today: Atletico Madrid over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: ATM over 1.5 / WOLF vs BM over 1.5 (-117)