Welcome in, to this weekend’s Shred the Spread soccer show, where I pick ou the best bets to make the EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga for the weekend’s best picks and parlays.
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Soccer Picks and Parlays #1
3 games in the EPL on Saturday.
Brentford vs Leicester Prediction
It’s a Brentford game and even better a home Brentford, which means you need look no further than making some sort of bet on the Over or goals.
Bees’ games average 3.7 GPG overall, the 2nd-most, and when you look at home games only their games average 4.8 GPG, a full goal more than Wolves at 3.8.
It’s get even better though. Cause you can say the same about Leicester games. Their games average 3.2 GPG overall and on the road they see the 2nd-highest GPG at 3.8.
3 teams are tied for the most BTTS bets cashing in the EPL this season at 83% and these are 2 of them. The other being Wolves.
Leicester recently sacked manager Steve Cooper, and former interim Man U manager Ruud van Nistelrooy is set to take over. It’s unlikely he’ll be on the sidelines yet, so we should still expect similar Leicester results, which is goals.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score
Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich Prediction
Some shine has come off Forest in recent weeks allowing 3 goals in back-to-back losses of 3-1 and 3-0. There’s no shame though in losing to Newcastle and Arsenal and Forest still sit 7th overall.
The 3-0 loss to Arsenal is just the 2nd time in 13 games in all matches this season where Forest haven’t scored. In 17 home EPL games going back into last season Forest has scored 13 times.
Ipswich are in their best form of the season after a 1-1 draw, 2-1 win and then 1-1 draw with Man U last week.
But then Ipswich are still 18th, have just 1 win, have allowed the 3rd-most goals with 23 on 12 games and have conceded a goal in 12/13 overall matches this season.
I’d back a Forest win, but certainly they should at least score.
- Soccer Picks Today: Forest to Score
Wolves vs Bournemouth Prediction
17th-placed Wolves find themselves underdogs at home to 13th Bournemouth.
Wolves are in slightly better form though right now after a 2-2 draw, 2-2 draw and 2-0 and 4-1 wins in recent games.
High-scoring games have been nothing new for Wolves whose games average the most GPG in the EPL at 4.0. In the EPL 9/12 have gone Over 2.5, and all 12 have gone Over 1.5. They, along with Leicester and Brentford have seen the most BTTS games at 83%.
Include all matches and there’s been 2+ goals in all 14 Wolves games this season and 3+ in 10/14. They’ve scored in 13/14 and 13 straight but have conceded in 12/14 as well.
Bournemouth’s games have been much lower scoring at just 2.8 GPG but lately they won 2-1, before 3-2 and 2-1 losses so scoring is up, but so are the losses.
In 13 overall games, they’ve scored in 9 and conceded in 12.
The last 2 times the Cherries travelled to Molineaux they did win 1-0 and the Under 2.5 is 4-1 with a total of just 6 goals scored in their last 5 meetings.
This could easily be a good BTTS bet. With just 1 clean sheet all season and Wolves at home in good form I’ll include a Wolves goal in this parlay.
- Soccer Picks Today: Wolves to Score
- Parlay Picks: BRE vs LEI btts / NF to score / WOL to score (+139)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #2
We’ll split this out over Saturday and Sunday in the Bundesliga and EPL.
Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart Prediction
Nearly side-by-side in the table, Werder, 12th with 15 points hosts Stuttgart, 9th with 16th points.
Werder won 2-1 at home in their most recent meeting and each won 2-0 in games prior. Someone has scored 2 goals in 7 of 9 meetings but never 3.
There’s been 2+ goals in 8/9 and in 29/30. So the Over 1.5 historically has been a simple parlay piece. Also, in the past 23 meetings, a home team has only failed to score once (Stuttgart).
Only 8 times in 61 meetings has a home team not scored in this matchup and all 8 times were Stuttgart. You have to go all the way back, 62 games to 1991 for the last time Werder failed to score at home vs this opponent.
Back to this season and Werder did fail to score last game, a 1-0 loss away to Frankfurt. Their form is all over the place having neither won or lost back-to-back games all season. In 13 games in all comps they’ve only kept 2 clean sheets though.
Stuttgart are reeling. They just got pounded 5-1 in Serbia this week in the UCL vs Red Star, and only a 2-0 win last week over last-place Bochum stands as their only win in 5 games. It’s only only 4 wins in 12 going further back.
Stuttgart are weakened without the injured Deniz Undav who’s scored 5 league goals this season, so much of the offense could fall to another 5-goal man Ermedin Demirovic. Enzo Millot has also scored 3 though too.
This looks like a very likely BTTS. The short rest and poor form for Stuttgart gives me some pause. If you want a winner. I’d say Werder at a huge +190 price. For this parlay, to keep it simple and keep us alive hopefully going into this huge game I’ll cover next on Sunday, let’s just ask Werder to score.
- Soccer Picks Today: Werder Bremen to score
Liverpool vs Man City Prediction
It’s a top of the table clash between 1st Liverpool who are 8 points clear of 2nd Man City.
Both played in the UCL this week with Liverpool winning 2-0 at home over Real Madrid on Wednesday and City coughing up a 3-0 lead on Tuesday and drawing 3-3 with Feyenoord.
For Liverpool it was a continuation of what’s been an exceptional season where they have not lost in any match in 15 games, are 17-1-1 overall and have scored multiple goals in 7 straight.
For City, it extends a shocking winless skid to 6 games where they’ve conceded multiple goals in all 6 and been outscored 17-7 with 5 losses and 1 draw.
The last 2 meetings have each ended 1-1. A road team hasn’t won any of the last 6 and the BTTS bet has gone 10-1 and 12-3 in recent years.
City have been without Stones, Rodri, Bobb and Kovacic for some time, and adding to the Liverpool injuries are likely Konate and Bradley who picked up knocks this week.
Being at home and playing an out of sorts City team, if picking a winner it has to be Liverpool. Failing to score against Tottenham last week is just the 2nd time in 20 overall games this season and 3rd time in 56 overall games going back into last season where they didn’t score.
- Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score
- Parlay Picks: WB to score / LIV vs MCI btts (-110)
Soccer Picks and Parlays #3
Here are 3 Sunday games in La Liga and Serie A.
Villarreal vs Girona Prediction
It’s a top 7 clash between 4th Villarreal and 7th Girona with both in good form.
The Yellow Submarine have not lost in 5 games in all matches, scoring multple goals in 4 straight as well. Over the course of the season in all comps they have just 2 losses in 14, coming to Barcelona and Real Madrid, and have only failed to score 1 time, away in Madrid. But then they’ve not been good defensively giving up a goal in 13/14 only shutting out Alaves.
Girona lost away to Sturm Graz in the UCL this week, but take out UCL games and they’ve won 4 straight. The 3 La Liga wins in that time have seen them score 4, 1 4 goals, though the 1 came in their only road game, where they’ll be here.
Villarreal’s games have seen an average of 3.5 GPG, the 2nd-most, seeing them go Over 2.5 at a 10-3 rate, while Girona’s have been lower, but still average 2.7, seeing them go Under 2.5 at an 8-6 rate. Lower that to just 1.5 and all 13 Villarreal games have seen 2+ while Girona’s have seen 2 or more in 10/14.
Last year both won on the road, Girona 2-1 in Villarreal and then the Yellow Submarine winning 1-0 in Girona.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Parma vs Lazio Prediction
13th Parma at 2-6-5 hosts the red-hot Lazio who are 5th at 9-1-3.
A draw and win over Fiorentina and AC Milan to start the season are long in the rearview mirror for Parma who since that time have 1 win in 11 games and only over 20th Venezia.
Last week it was a 3-1 home loss to Atalanta and there’s little reason to expect anything different versus Lazio. In 14 games in all comps Parma has only kept the ball out of their net once.
Meanwhile, Lazio had scored in every game this season except away to Juventus. But it’s now just twice in 18 games overall they’ve not scored.
Lazio played in the UEL Thursday and shockingly drew at home to Ludogorets 0-0 despite putting up 20 shots, 6 on target to 3 and 0 for Ludogorets, nearly having a PK awarded and hitting the crossbar near the end. They had though rotated most of their starters.
The 1-0 loss to Juve is their only defeat in 13 games. You’d expect a Lazio win and certainly for them to get back to scoring. Parma games in Serie A have also seen 2+ goals in 11/13.
- Soccer Picks Today: Over 1.5
Lecce vs Juventus Prediction
Lecce sits 15th and have scored just 6 goals on the season while allowing 21.
This should be a straightforward Juve win. They are just 7th though and have been drawing many games including Wednesday’s 0-0 with Aston Villa in the UCL. It was the 2nd in a row after also drawing AC Milan 0-0 last weekend.
In all comps Juve is 8-9-1, drawing 5/7 recent games and only losing once all season to Stuttgart in the UCL.
They’ve only allowed 7 goals still though in 13 Serie A games.
Juve won 1-0 and 3-0 last season in this matchup and is 6-2-0 in the past 8. They should win again, but while losses are rare, wins are never a guarantee either.
- Soccer Picks Today: Juventus double chance
- Parlay Picks: VIL vs GIR over 1.5 / PAR vs LAZ over 1.5 / JUV double chance (-141)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
