Soccer Picks and Parlays – EPL & La Liga (Aug 15-17)

European soccer kicks off this weekend with the EPL and La Liga getting things rolling on Friday. There’s no need to dive in and go crazy with so many teams making changes and teams coming in from the offseason. I also think it’s better to slowly ease in and see how the new lineups jell before going overboard. But we have to bet on something. Let’s target 6 games. 3 from each league. For three, 2-leg parlays for this weekend’s soccer predictions.

Soccer Picks and Parlays #1

Friday.

Villarreal vs Real Oviedo Prediction

Friday’s La Liga action includes a matchup with La Liga’s 5th-place team from last year in Villarreal and the Segunda’s 3rd place team Real Oviedo. Oviedo got in through the Promotion Playoffs with a 1-0 loss and then 3-1 win against Mirandes. 

Their preseason hasn’t been great at 1-1-2 against other Spanish opponents, scoring just 3 goals. 

VIllarreal lost 2nd-leading scorer to Everton this offseason but retained top marksman Ayoze Perez who had 19 La Liga goals. 

The Yellow Submarine’s preseason has seen a lot of draws: 3-3 with Basel, 2-2 vs St. Gallen, 1-0 loss to Sporting Lisbon, 1-1 with Leeds, but then a 3-2 win over Arsenal and then a 2-0 loss vs Aston Villa. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Villarreal to win

Liverpool vs Bournemouth Prediction

Liverpool has gotten the better of the Cherries for some time now. They won 2-0 and 3-0 last year and 4-0, 2-1, and 3-1 before that. They’ve lost once in 14 meetings and scored multiple goals in 15/16.

9th last season, Bournemouth mostly played some strong sides in pre-season. Overall they went 2-2-2. They beat Hiberian and Everton, lost to Man U and West Ham and then drew Sociedad twice. 

The big player news for Bournemouth is on defense where Huijsen left for Real Madrid, Milos Kerkez for Liverpool and Kepa Arrizabalaga, who was on loan from Chelsea, for Arsenal. The sirens are blaring at the back. Illia Zabarnyi also looks likely to leave. At least one of those spots has been addressed, bringing in Rennes’ captain, left-back Adrien Truffert.

Offensively, they could be without Justin Kluivert who missed their last friendly. 

Champions Liverpool were on a roll in the lead up to the season. They:

• Beat Preston 1-0
• Best Stoke 5-0
• Lost to AC Milan 4-2
• Beat Yokohama 3-1
• Beat Bilbao 4-1, and beat them again 3-2
• Then came the Community Shield vs Crystal Palace. 

In a wild opening 20 minutes, Ekitike gave Liverpool a lead in the 4’ minute, Palace levelled on a PK in the 17’, and Frimpong retook the lead for Liverpool in the 21’. It stayed that way until Palace drew level in the 77’ sending the game to PKs where Palce went on to win. 

There’s a lot of change for Liverpool with departures of Alexander-Arnold, Diaz, Nunes and the sad passing of Jota.

They’ve reloaded, bringing in big money players like Ekitike, Frimping, Wirtz, and Kerkez. 

This should be a Liverpool win where they score multiple goals. The Reds haven’t lost on opening day in 13 years and have only 3 opening day losses in their history. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Liverpool over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: LIV over 1.5 / VIL win (-138)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #2

Saturday. 

Brighton vs Fulham Prediction

Both teams won at home last year, Fulham 3-1 and then Brighton 2-1. 

Overall, they were just 6 points apart with Brighton in 8th with 61 points and Fulham 11th with 54. 

Brighton’s pre-season was solid going 4-1-0 and scoring multiple goals in every game.

• 3-1 win over Stoke
• 2-0 win over Las Palmas
• 2-2 draw with Southampton
• 2-0 win over Wolfsburg
• 2-1 win over Wolfsburg

Brighton suffered a big offensive loss with Joao Pedro leaving for Chelsea. They’ll hope the likes of 18-year-old striker Charalampos Kostoulas, Stefanos Tzimas, and Sunderland’s Tommy Watson can offset some of that. Defensive reinforcements have also been added to try and improve a porous defense. 

Kostoulas became the youngest player to make a professional appearance for Olympiakos when he represented their B team at 15 years and seven months. He also won the UEFA Youth League last year. The Seagulls still have Danny Welbeck who was tied for their scoring lead last year too. 

Fulham had a very short pre-season with only 3 games, but it was also strong.

• 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest
• 4-2 win over Al-Ittihad
• 1-0 win over Frankfurt

Raul Jimenez, Alex Iwobi and Rodrigo Munez led the Cottages in scoring last season and all return. However, Fulham has essentially made zero additions to last year’s squad. 

With 27 yes’s, and a 71% hit rate each, these were the EPL’s 2 highest-rated BTTS games last season. Brighton only failed to score 5 times, and Fulham 7. Meanwhile, Fulham kept only 5 clean sheets and Brighton 8.

• Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score

Mallorca vs Barcelona Prediction

Barca won 5-1 on the island last year and 1-0 in Barca. They’ve not lost vs Mallorce in 18 meetings (16-2-0) going back to  2017. Some games in Mallorca have been closer with 2-2, 1-0 and 1-0 coming before that 5-1 beatdown in previous seasons. 

Barca steamrolled through some weaker opponents in the pre-season:

• 3-1 over Vissel Kobe
• 7-3 over FC Seoul
• 5-0 over Daegu
• 5-0 over Como

Mallorca had a solid pre-season at 4-1-1. 

Sometimes going to the island is tough, but you’d expect Barca to win. They are out Lewandowski with hamstring injury though. It could mean new signing Rashford starts up to. 

Barca double chance and BTTS in Brighton vs Fulham is -114. Or add a player shot prop from Barca, perhaps Raphinha for +128. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Barca double chance & Raphinha 1+ shot on target
• Parlay Picks: BRI vs FUL btts / Barca double chance & Raphinha 1+ shot on target (+128)

Soccer Picks and Parlays #3

Into Sunday.

Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla Prediction

4th Athletic Club hosts 17th Sevilla on Saturday. 

This matchup is usually tight. It was 1-1 in Bilbao and 1-0 Bilbao in Seville last year. The Under 2.5 is on a perfect 9-0 run. The Under 3.5 is 15-0. 

Sevilla once again started the season poor, improved slightly, then bottomed out again and just barely avoided relegation being 1 point above 18th place Leganes. They had 1 win in their final 11 games. 

Sevilla’s offseason has been a lot of draws and BTTS outcomes. They’re 1-4-1 in regulation plus a PK win. The BTTS is 6-0. And 3/6 have ended 1-1. Their last 3 have all been draws.

Bilbao were just 6 points back of 3rd place Atleti. They’re always solid at home and only Real Madrid, Atleti and Barca had more home points last year. 

They loaded their pre-season with tough games and it didn’t go well. They were 1-0-6. The only win came in their first match vs Ponferradina, and they recently lost to Liverpool (twice) and Arsenal 3-0 last weekend. 

Bilbao is usually a good bet at home, so if picking a winner I’d look there. Under 3.5 looks like a good parlay leg too. Or simply, Bilbao to score. 

• Soccer Picks Today: Under 3.5 (-380) – BIL to score (-600)

Man U vs Arsenal Prediction

Last year Arsenal had a chance at the title, but faded and came up 10 points short in 2nd. Their big offseason signing is Viktor Gyokeres. He, Saka and Havertz all found the back of the net in their final pre-season game last weekend. 

Man U were an abomination, being closer to relegation than of anything of substance. They were 16th at 11-9-18, one of their worst seasons ever. But … somehow they turned it on in the Europa League and were the only team to not a lose again … until … the final, where they lost 1-0 to Spurs. 

The Man U pre-season:

• 0-0 vs Leeds
• 2-1 win over West Ham
• 4-1 win over Bournemouth
• 2-2 with Everton
• 1-1 and PK win over Fiorentina

Personal-wise, the 3 big-name signings are Matheus Cunha (Wolves), Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford), and Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig). So they’ve tried to load up with offensive improvements. Each player cost over 70 million euros. 

Arsenal’s pre-season:

• 1-0 win over AC Milan
• 3-2 win over Newcastle
• 1-0 loss to Tottenham
• 3-2 loss to Villarreal
• 3-0 win over Bilbao

Personal-wise, in addition to Gyokeres, the Gunners have added Zubimendi (d-mid), Madueke (RW), Mosquera (CB), Norgaard (d-mid) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (keeper).

• Soccer Picks Today: Both Teams to Score (-135)
• Parlay Picks: BIL vs SEV under 3.5 / MNU vs ARS btts (+120)
• OR BIL to score / MNU ARS btts (+106)

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