Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Round of 16 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for today’s game between Senegal vs Morocco on Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 2pm EST at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat.
On one hand Senegal have made the final in 3 of the past 4 editions (winning in 2021), and Morocco are in the final for the first time since 2004 and looking to end a 50-year wait for a trophy in Africa, last winning 1976.
AFCON Odds and Picks
Here are today’s odds for the Africa Cup of Nations Final.
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Senegal | +260 |
| Draw | +190 |
| Morocco | +125 |
| Senegal to lift trophy | +125 |
| Morocco to lift trophy | -175 |
| BTTS Yes / No | +125 / -175 |
| Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 | +187 / -250 |
Senegal vs Morocco Preview
Senegal (The Lions of Teranga)
19th in FIFA Rankings.
They won Group D at 2-1-0, scoring 7, and allowing just 1.
That came from a 3-0 win over Botswana, 1-1 draw with DR Congo and 3-0 win over Benin.
In the Round of 16 they were big favorites overs Sudan, but had a bit of a scare early when Sudan scored just 6 minutes in. But Gueye scored twice in the first half and Mbaye again in the 77′ and Senegal won 3-1.
In the quarterfinals they met a formidable Mali team but scored ealry in the 27′, a lead that was made easier to hold after Mali saw red in first-half stoppage time. Senegal went on to win 1-0. They had 9 shots on target to Mali’s just 1.
It was another 1-0 win in the semis with Mane saving them from extra-time scoring in the 78′. They outshot Egypt 11-4 and 4-1 in shots on target and had 65% possession. They’ll be out defender and captain Kalidou Koulibaly who got booked and will be suspended. He may have also missed out getting injured last game as well. They’re also out the suspended Diarra on defense too.
In all matches, Senegal have won 10/12 and 8/10 wins have all come by shut out, and in their last 12 games they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 34-6. They’ve also only lost 1 time in regulation in 42 overall matches (Brazil 2-0 in November) going all the way back to September 2023 which was another friendly. In that time only 4 games ended drawn. It’s been 52 games since their last competitive loss in January 2023.
Morocco (Atlas Lions)
11th in FIFA Rankings. Won Group A at 2-1-0, scoring 6, allowing 1.
That included beating Comoros 2-0, drawing Mali 1-1 and beating Zambia 3-0.
In the Round of 16 they had 73% possession and led in shot attempt 12-4, while holding Tanzania to just 1 shot on target. Only a 64′ minute goal from Diaz ended up finding the back of the net for a 1-0 win.
Versus Cameroon in the Quarters, it was Diaz again scoring in the 26′ and Saibari in the 74′ to pace Morocco to a 2-0 win. The shots were minimal, with Morocco having only 2 on target and Cameroon 0.
The semis were a huge matchup against the best offensive side in Nigeria. But defense prevailed, as Morocco are the stingiest defensive side. They actually created more offense, outshooting Nigeria 16-2 and 5-1 in shots on target, but neither team could score in regulation or extra-time and it needed PKs where Morocco won 4-2.
Morocco are now undefeated in 23 overall matches, with just 5 of those games ended drawn in regulation. In 21/23 and 34/37 games they’ve scored. They’ve also kept clean sheets in 15/18.
Diaz leads the Golden Boot race with 5 goals, to go wth 17 shots and 8 on target. With teammate El Kaabi having 3 goals and no Senegal player having more than 2, Diaz is in a great spot to claim this honor, win or lose.
Senegal vs Morocco Head-to-Head
Morocco is 18-6-7 vs Senegal all-time. They last played in the Nations Championship in 2025 which ended 1-1 with Morocco winning in PKs. Morocco is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
AFCON Prediction
This looks like another close match and likely a coin flip. Senegal have clean sheets in 4/6 and have allowed just 2 goals. They’re the better offensive team, with 12 goals compared to Morocco’s 9. But Morocco have been airtight defensively with 5 clean sheets and just 1 goal allowed, which was a PK. And despite playing the most games alongside Senegal, they’ve still allowed 7 fewer shot attempts than any other team and 4 fewer shots on target than anyone else with just 5 in 6 games. They’ve also already proven they can limit more offensive teams like Nigeria.
Last year the hosts, Ivory Coast won and in a higher-scoring game, 2-1. But AFCON Finals have gone Under 2.5 in 9/10 and even Under 1.5 is 8-2. 0 of the last 12 and just 1/20 have seen more than 3 goals.
I think this looks like a draw or a 1-0 for someone. If you’re picking a winner though, here’s a stat that’s hard to ignore. Morocco hasn’t lost a competitive home match in Morocco in 35 games going all the way back to 2009 where they are 30-5-0.
Betting options:
- Draw (+190)
- Morocco double chance & under 2.5 (-138)
- Morocco to lift trophy & under 3.5 (-125)
- Morocco to lift trophy & under 2.5 (+125)
- AFCON Picks: Draw (+190)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
