Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Round of 16 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for today’s game between Nigeria vs Mozambique at 2pm EST on Monday, January 5, 2026.
Nigeria won Group C, being 1 of only 2 perfect teams in the Group Stage at 3-0-0, scoring 8 and conceding 4.
Mozambique were one of the best 3rd place teams, being 3rd in Group F, 1-0-2, scoring 2, allowing 4.
AFCON Odds and Picks
Here are today’s odds for the Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16.
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nigeria | -300 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Mozambique | +1000 |
| Nigeria to advance | -700 |
| Mozambique to advance | +450 |
| BTTS Yes / No | +137 / -188 |
| Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 | -106 / -118 |
Nigeria vs Mozambique Preview
Nigeria (Super Eagles)
38th in FIFA Rankings.
Their current form has seen some higher scoring games. On Matchday 1, Ajayi and Lookman scored to pace them to a 2-1 win over Tanzania, while also seeing them put up 16 shots and 9 on target. Osimhen had 7 shots/3 on target.
On MD2 they were drawn with Tunisia 0-0 until the 44′ when Osimhen broke open the scoring. With goals in the 50′ and 67′ from Ndidi and Lookman, they were cruising at 3-0. But then conceded 1 back in the 74′ and a PK in the 87′ to need to hang on for the 3-2 win.
Next up they met Uganda on MD3 in a game Nigeria didn’t need to win, which saw them rotate several players. Onuachu scored in the 28′ and it stayed that way until Uganda took a red card in the 56′, which then saw Nigeria scored 2 more in quick succession in the 62′ and 67′ from Onyedika. Uganda did pull one back down a man in the 75′, which was their only shot on target.
Nigeria lost to Egypt 2-1 in a friendly before the tournament but before that it was a 1-1, 4-1 win, 4-0 win, 2-1 win and 1-1. They’ve scored in 12 straight and in 19/20. BTTS bets are 6-0 and 8-1 as they’ve also conceded in 8/9.
Mozambique (The Mambas)
102nd in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they hung around with the reigning champs, Ivory Coast and the game was tied until Ivory Coast scored early in the 2nd half. Mozambique did only muster 2 shots on target though. After that, their all-time winless run in AFCON was stretched to 16 games.
But that changed on MD2 vs Gabon, where they got goals from Bangal, Catamo (PK) and Calila, and got their first-ever win, 3-2.
They met Cameroon on MD3 and opened the scoring in the 23′ from Catamo. But an own goal minutes later tied the game up at 1-1. Cameroon got the winner in the 55′ to win 2-1.
Mozambique have only won 2/8 games now (Somalia) and also have only 3 wins in 12 and haven’t won back-to-back games since June 2024.
Sporting’s Geny Catamo has been a good prop bet. On MD1 he had 5 crosses, 3 shots and both of the team’s 2 shots on target. On MD2, he had 5 shots, 3 on target, 1 goal and 1 assist. On MD3 it was 1 shot, 1 on target and 1 goal.
Nigeria vs Mozambique Head-to-Head
Nigeria is a perfect 4-1-0 in the matchup but there’s only been 1 meeting in the past 15 years. They last played a friendly in 2023, won by Nigeria 3-2.
AFCON Prediction
Nigeria scored the most goals of any team in qualifying. But the 4 goals allowed was the most of any 1st place team and more or equal to all but 1 second place team. Even some 3rd place teams allowed fewer. Therefore, a BTTS bet (+137) could be an option. Or we focus just on Nigeria to win and score 2+.
- AFCON Picks: Nigeria moneyline & to score over 1.5 goals (-150)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
