NFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks and Parlays

Week 1 of the NFL season is here and we’ve already had 2 games this week, but we have 13 more on Sunday and another on MNF between the Jets and 49ers. 

I’m going to focus on Sunday’s games and create 2 parlays from 7 games, picking a variety of props, alternate spreads and totals. So let’s get into NFL Week 1 predictions, picks and parlays.

NFL Picks and Parlays #1

Patriots vs Bengals Prediction

The Bengals were just 9-8 last season but missed Joe Burrow for much of the season so a 9-8 record isn’t that bad. He’s back for Week 1 here. But then Ja’Marr Chase could miss out with unresolved contract issues.

The Patriots were 4-13 last year and were an abysmal watch all season. Their defense kept them in some games despite playing almost 2 games more of snaps than the offense. Now Bill Belichick is gone and say what you want about him, but he always had the defense overperforming.

The offense, was 28th in passing, 25th in rushing, 30th in yards and tied for last in points scored per game at just 13.9.

Jacoby Brissett can’t be any worse than the god-awful QB rotation from last year, but he also likely won’t be too much better.

This team is expected to have the worst record come January and if they somehow pull an upset away to Cincy, I’ll have to deal with it.

This looks like the free square on the Bingo card or in Survivor Pools.

• NFL Predictions: Bengals moneyline

Commanders vs Buccaneers Prediction

Sure the Bucs won a weak NFC South and only at 9-8, but they weren’t a bad team and Baker Mayfield proved more than capable of still being a starting QB. And when they lost, it was only by 14, 14, 3, 6, 2, 13, 7, 10 and 8.

There were some heavy defeats in there but not many. And often vs some better teams.

Washington who finished 4-13 is not one of the better teams. They bring in Dan Quinn, a defensive-minded coach this season. They’ll also be starting a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels from LSU drafted 2nd overall. Obviously big things are expected but will it come in Week 1?

Rookie QBs in Week 1 are 0-7-1 SU in the past 5 years. 

The Commanders’ defense got shredded last year. They gave up the most yards passing and the 2nd most yards per pass attempt. Addtionally they gave up the most yards to WRs as well.

That can only improve, but should still be something Mayfield, Evans, Godwin and Otton are salivating over.

Washington allowed 13 QBs to throw for 2+ tds, and Baker Mayfield threw for 2+ passing scores in 12/19 games.

The Bucs should win but certainly shouldn’t lose by much if they do.

• NFL Predictions: Bucs +7.5

Rams vs Lions Prediction

It’s an NFC Wild Card rematch between the 10-7 Rams and 12-5 Lions. 

On January 14 the Lions edged out the Rams 24-23 at home.

The Lions had 3 TDs and the Rams 2, and all before halftime in a high-scoring 1st half that saw Detroit leading 21-17.

The Rams had 3 FGs in that game and Detroit 1.

Stafford threw all over the Lions for 367 yards and a TD to Nacua and Atwell. 

Goff had 277 yards and 1 passing touchdown to LaPorta, while Montgomery and Gibbs each ran in a score.

The Rams’ defense took a hit this offseason with Aaron Donald retiring which only helps my bet on points being scored in this exciting SNF matchup. The Rams are also dealing with some OL issues in Week 1 with LT Alaric Jackson suspended.

Goff is the most profitable QB in the last 20 years in Week 1, being 7-0 ATS in openers. 

Dan Campbell has been the most profitable coach in the last 5 years ATS himself.

This will be everyone’s favorite Over game, which means the Under could be the way to go, afger all the total is 52.5 but there were only 47 points in their last meeting and to start the year offenses could be a little slow out of the gates. So, I’m just betting both teams to score over 1.5 TDs. No need to worry about the over or under and you can still cheer for scoring. 

• NFL Predictions: Both to Score Over 1.5 TDS
• Parlay Picks: CIN win / TB +7.5 / LAR vs DET btts 2TDs (-132) at Bet365

NFL Picks and Parlays #2

Cardinals vs Bills Prediction

Arizona ended the season at 2-3, with those losses coming by 16, 11 and 1 points. 

Expectations are higher this year in the desert expecting both the offense and defense to improve and a full season of Kyler Murray and the drafting of Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Josh Allen led all players in combined TDs last season with 44. He did lose two of his top targets though in Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs this offseason.

Buffalo was 11-6 last season, but didn’t have too many big wins down the stretch. In their final 11 games, their wins came by 5, 6, 26 (Jets), 3, 21, 2, 6, 7, and 14 points.

The Cardinals are about +6.5 on the normal spread. Could they lose by a touchdown? Sure. Do I see them getting run off the field against a Bills’ team with fewer offensive weapons this season, no.

The Bills suffered a big blow on defense with ILB Matt Milano being sent to the IR with injury.

The Cards could be a good bet on the regular spread, or an alternate spread of +10.5, +14.5 or more, or this game could be a contender for both teams to score 2+ TDs or both to score 10+ in this parlay.

• NFL Predictions: Both Teams to Score 10+ Points

Texans vs Colts Prediction

In two meetings last year Indy won 31-20 in Houston and the Texans won 23-19 at Indianapolis. 
The year prior scores were 32-31 Houston and 20-20.

Divisional underdogs Week 1 have great record. And home divisional dogs Week 1 are 26-15 ats since 2005 making Indy a good bet. And they get Anthony Richardson back from injury for this season. 

But Houston looks like everyone’s darling team to make a Super Bowl run with CJ Stroud.

Houston’s offense ranked 13th in PPG at 22.7 last year.

But Indy, even with Gardner Minshew actually ranked just ahead of them in 11th averaging 23.3 PPG.

Indy’s defense got gashed giving up the 5th most PPG at 24.4.

That made Indy one of the highest Over teams at 11-6. 

Over or Under, I can see 2 TDs at least for both.

• NFL Predictions: Both to Score Over 1.5 TDs (-280)

Steelers vs Falcons Prediction

The Steelers were 11-7 to the Under last season while the Falcons were 10-7.

This total is set at a relatively low 42, but both teams welcome new starting QBs to the mix with Russell Wilson for Pittsburgh and Kirk Cousins for Atlanta. Wilson is already dealing with a calf injury and will give way to Justin Fields.

Wilson’s best days are behind him and Cousins is coming off a severe Achilles injury. Both are still upgrades over what these teams trotted out under center last year but likely both teams need some time to integrate and get their feet wet.

I’m going to tease up this total and go Under 52.5

Only 1 Steelers game went over 50 points last year, while only 5 got that high for the Falcons. 

If you’re looking for an ATS pick you have to consider that Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach as an underdog in the past 20 years.

There is too much new here for me to worry about that, I’ll just tease the total and go Under.

• NFL Predictions: Under 52.5 (-450)

Cowboys vs Browns Prediction

Dallas was the league’s top offense last season scoring 30.1 PPG, while Cleveland came in at just 12th, scoring 22.8.

Defensively, Dallas also held the edge in allowing 20.2 PPG (9th) and Cleveland allowed 22.6 PPG (21st).

The Browns though are expected to have a top defense this season.

The fewest points Dallas scored all last season was 10, and it only happened twice, going well over that in most games.

The Browns only failed to put 10 points on the board once themselves last year as well.

At -500, Both Teams to Score 10+ looks like a good parlay piece.

• NFL Predictions: Both to Score 10+ Points (-500)
• Parlay Picks: AZ vs BUF btts 10+ / HOU vs IND btts 2TDs / PIT vs ATL Under 52.5 / DAL vs CLEV btts 10+ (+122) at Bet365