It’s NFL Week 11 and in this week’s NFL 4-leg SGP I’m looking at the Ravens vs Steelers, Colts vs Jets, Jaguars vs Lions and Chiefs vs Bills. I’ve created this over at Bet365 with a variety of alt spreads, totals and player props for this weekend’s NFL predictions.
Ravens vs Steelers Prediction
The Steelers have owned the Ravens winning 7/8 but this rivalry is always close with those games being decided by 7, 7, 3, 2, 3 (ot), 1, 5 and 4 points. In fact, there have been 27 games between them since 2008 decided by 1 score, the most of any matchup.
No team has scored 20 points in ANY of the past 5 and the point totals in those 8 games have been 27, 27, 29, 30, 29, 39, 33 and 52 (2020).
Despite those low-scoring trends, this year the Ravens’ offense is 1st, while their defense is 25th which could open up the scoring, with Russell Wilson rolling right now with the deep ball and throwing 6 TD passes in his 3 games, to just 1 INT.
Lamar is a possible MVP winner, but his record vs Pittsburgh is just 1-3, he’s lost 3 straight and only has 4 TDs to 7 INTs in those games.
Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker is not as good as he’s been in past years and has failed to kick a FG 3 times this season, but in 2/3 he didn’t attempt a kick including in last week’s shoutout win over Cincy. He’s still 15-19.
Steelers’ kicker Chris Boswell also didn’t attempt a kick last week in a shootout win over Washington. It’s the first time this season he didn’t attempt or make a kick and is 23-24. It snapped a run of 12-straight games going back into last season where he made a kick.
If you want to look to some player props, well the Ravens have given up the most catches, 63 and the 3rd-most yards (680) to opposing TEs this season. So, Pat Freiermuth receptions look good in a SGP. He’s 2nd on the team in targets, catches and yards and 1st in receiving TDs. He’s made at least 2 catches each game this season and 3 or more in 6/9.
In this matchup, the underdog always looks like a good ATS bet or teaser bet, especially when the home team is getting 3 points like the Steelers, and especially when you consider favorites in this matchup are on an awful 2-18-3 ATS run since 2008.
Then there’s Mike Tomlin’s underdog ATS record of 60-31-3 and the fact Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS as a home dog since 2018.
- NFL Predictions: Over 1.5 FGs / PIT +17.5 / Freiermuth 1+ rec
Colts vs Jets Prediction
The Colts can’t decide who to play at QB and this week it’s back to Anthony Richardson. At this point, he’s a better runner than passer, which is not what you want from a 4th overall pick.
Richardson has only completed over 10 passes once this season in 6 games. He’s also only thrown over 200 yards twice and those games were back in Weeks 1-2.
Both are average on defense, giving up 21.4 PPG, 10th (NY) and 22.3 PPG, 16th (IND).
But then neither is great on offense, with New York 26th averaging 17.7 and Indy averaging 20.8, 18th.
Take out the 29-27 win over Pittsburgh where Richardson had only 4 pass attempts before Joe Flacco took over and the Colts have scored 27, 10, 21, 16 and 20 points in games where Richardson has played the full game.
The Jets just got embarrassed in Arizona losing 31-6 and have now not scored over 20 points in 5/7 recent games.
I don’t see this turning into a shootout and I see Garrett Wilson being a good bet in a SGP.
He’s made 3 catches in every game this season with 13, 8, 5, 5, 9 and 5.
And in 14/17 games last season. He did it in 14/17 in 2022 as well.
With Davante Adams out or maybe limited with an illness/wrist injury, Wilson should have a normal day again.
- NFL Predictions: Under 60.5 and Garrett Wilson 2+ receptions
Jaguars vs Lions Prediction
The Jags are a miserable 2-8 SU, but they do often cover spreads at 6-4 ATS. But now they meet the 8-1 SU and ATS Lions.
Jacksonville has lost 3 straight and last week with Trevor Lawrence out injured Mac Jones came in and went 14-22, for 111 yards, 2 picks and the Jags lost 12-7. Lawrence is out again.
Jared Goff started the season averaging 268.3 YPG but in his last 3 he’s thrown for 85, 145 and 240 and had 5 INTs last week.
But the league’s 2nd-ranked offense keeps rolling and the Lions have won 7 straight and are 8-1. Only in their 1 loss did they score fewer than 20 points.
The Lions are huge 14-point favorites and should roll, unless Goff has another dud.
- NFL Predictions: DET -3.5 + Goff 150+ passing yards
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
The 9-0 Chiefs meet the 8-2 Bills in what looks like the matchup of the week.
The Chiefs are now riding a 15-game winning streak, something not done since 2010-11 and it’s the 10th-longest winning streak ever.
Win or lose, and well right now it’s all win, Chief’s games are always close. This season their games have been decided by 7, 1, 5, 7, 13, 10, 6 (ot), and 2.
When they do lose it’s not by much, with just 4 losses by 10+ in 126. So naturally, Chiefs at +2.5 and played in teasers looks like an obvious bet. Mahomes 12-1-1 ATS as a dog. Include Mahomes and Andy Reid and the Chiefs are 18-4 ATS as dogs.
They’re not blowing anyone out and take a slow, methodical approach on offense being 2nd in time of possession and 1st in plays per game.
The Bills are also hot with 5 straight wins.
The Bills should find some success over the middle of the field vs the KC defense that has given up the most yards to opposing TEs (698) and the 3rd-most catches (60).
However, top TE Dalton Kincaid is out, so too is WR Keon Coleman and Amari Copper is questionable. Even if Buffalo wins, it likely won’t be a blowout.
For the sake of this parlay leg, I’m taking KC +14.5 on the alt spread but adding in a DeAndre Hopkins receptions prop. He’s had catch totals of 2, 8 and 4 in his 3 games on targets of 3, 9 and 5 with KC and should get a couple here too.
You can always look Travis Kelce’s ways in props too. After a slow start, his recent games have seen him finish with 8, 14, 10, 4, 9 and 7 catches.
- NFL Predictions: KC +14.5 / Hopkins 2+ rec
- Total odds (+117)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
Good blogs thanks