NFL Player Incentives & Props – NFL Player Bonuses for Week 18

In what’s become an annual must-know before betting on Week 18 props, are the NFL player incentives on the line as the regular season comes to a close. Whether teams have something on the line from a wines and losses standpoint or not, hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars are up for grabs for several player who have NFL bonuses in their contracts.

Let’s cover all of the players on offense and defense who have realistic chances of hitting their incentives, as well as a few who are chasing records and could offer NFL prop betting value.

NFL QB Incentives

Player	Team	Stat Needed (Current Stat)	Incentive
Baker Mayfield	TB	Top 10 in League or Top 5 in the NFC in: Passer Rating (4th), Passing Touchdowns (2nd), Passing Yards (2nd), Completion % (2nd), Yards Per Attempts (5th)	$500k each
Geno Smith	SEA	4,282 Passing Yards (4,097) / 30 Passing TDs (17) / 69.76 Completion Rate (70.2) / 100.87 Passer Rating (90.5) / 10 Wins (9)	$2 million each (+ $5 million to hit all 5)

The 2 main quarterbacks with big NFL player incentives on the line are the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield and the Seahawks’ Geno Smith.

Baker Mayfield

It’s been a great statistical year for Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield and win or lose in Week 18 it could end up being an extra profitable year. There is a strong potential Mayfield scoops up an extra $2.5 million as he simply needs to come either top 10 in the league or top 5 in the NFC in each of the following categories: Passer Rating, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Completion % and Yards Per Pass Attempt. Currently ranking 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 5th in those categories respectively, he could take home five separate $500k bonuses.

Geno Smith

Technically Geno Smith “could” take home a whopping $15 million in NFL bonuses this week. He receives $2 million each for besting his stats in 5 categories from 2022 including passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion rate, passer rating and wins. Hitting all 5 also unlocks another bonus of $5 million. Now, that won’t all be possible, but he can and should certainly hit some of these marks.

He did himself no favors in reaching his NFL player incentives with just 160 passing yards and 0 TDs in a Boxing Day 6-3 snooze-fest over the Bears. But certainly another 185 yards, a decent passer rating and a win versus a Rams team resting most of their starters are all possible for him to claim a few million more in NFL bonuses.

NFL Receiver Incentives

Player	Team	Stat Needed (Current Stat)	Incentive
Mike Evans	TB	70 Receptions (65) / 1,000 Receiving Yards (915)	$3 million
Courtland Sutton	DEN	1,065+ Receiving Yards (983) / 10 Receiving TDs (7)	$500k / $200k
Malik Nabers	NYG	1,487 Receiving Yards (1,140)	Rookie Receiving Record
Brock Bowers	LV	1,487 Receiving Yards (1,444) / 117 Receptions (108)	Rookie Receiving Yards Record / All-Time TE Receptions Record
Zach Ertz	WAS	70 Receptions (61) / 700 Receiving Yards (610) / 8 TDs (6)	$250k Each
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	5 Receiving TDs (4)	$250k
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	6 Receiving TDs (5)	$250k

There are a ton of receivers at the WR and TE positions who are great to target in Week 18 props based on the player bonuses they have up for grabs.

Mike Evans

If Mayfield continues to pad his stats in Week 18, you can be sure he’ll be feeding his top target in Mike Evans who is also chasing a cool $3 million if he can finish with 5 more catches and 85 more receiving yards. Doing so would unlock his bonus that kicks in at 70 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TDs (he already has 11). Last week vs Carolina Evans was 8-9 for 97 yards and 2 TDs so this numbers are easily within his reach.

Courtland Sutton

Just 82 receiving yards stand in the way of Broncos’ WR Courtland Sutton ending the regular season with a $500k NFL bonus. Playing at home, with a playoff spot on the line against a Chiefs’ team likely to rest most starters, should give him every chance of achieving this. In a less-likely incentive, a further $200k is on the line if he hits 10 receiving TDs of which he has 7. Sutton has only had multiple TD catches once all season (2) and has finished with yardage totals of 32, 50 and 55 in his last 3 games so really neither bonus is a lock. But certainly targeting Sutton receiving props this week looks like a smart bet.

Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers

Neither have lucrative NFL player incentives to target here, but each of the Giants’ and Raiders’ rookie WRs Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers have slim, slim chances of breaking Puka Nacua’s 2023 rookie receiving yards record of 1,486 yards. But both are way off the mark with Nabers still needing 347 more yards to break the record while Bowers needs 343.

Nabers may be more likely to stick to focusing on just reaching 166 yards. That total would give him the Giants’ all-time rookie receiving record, breaking Odell Beckham Jr.’s total from 2015.

Meanwhile, a more attainable record for Bowers would be to focus on pulling down another 9 catches in Week 18. Getting 9 more catches would see him move from 108 to 117 catches, passing the all-time record of 116 catches in a season set by Zach Ertz in 2018.

Zach Ertz

Ertz unlocked a boatload of NFL bonus money last week by hitting 60 catches, 600 yards and 6 TDs, each of which cashed $250 checks. The Commanders’ TE has a chance to double that money with similar bonuses for hitting 70 catches, 700 yards and 8 TDs. He’s 9 catches, 90 yards and 2 Tds away in each of those categories and considering his high in catches is just 7 this season, and he’s only hit 70+ goals and 2+ TDs once (last week) and in overtime, it’s unlikely, but possible he could hit some of these targets.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

A season with just 16 total catches (14) with his current team the New Orleans Saints, certainly isn’t good. But Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 4 TDs on those 14 catches and with just 1 more he can score $250k in bonuses and unlock his NFL player incentives for the season. Against the Bucs’ 29th-ranked pass defense, and in what is otherwise a meaningless game for the Saints, surely MVS will get a few endzone shots thrown his way.

DeAndre Hopkins

A huge, huge day in receiving yards and receptions could unlock some further incentives but let’s just focus on DeAndre Hopkins most attainable NFL bonus. He currently has 5 TDs. Catch one more and cha-ching! 6 TDs equals another $250k. With nothing on the line for KC this week though, Hopkins may see limited playing time.

Ja’Marr Chase

Let’s add one more player who’s not on the chart above for Week 18 NFL player incentives. There is no money or records on the line for Ja’Marr Chase, but as the current leader in each of receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, you can be sure Chase will be hoping for a big day to hold that distinction and maybe help the Bengals claim an unlikely playoff spot.

NFL Running Back Incentives

Player	Team	Stat Needed	Incentive
Tony Pollard	TEN	7+ Rushing TDs (5) / 1,100+ Rushing Yards (1,017) / 60 Receptions (41)	$200k / $250k / $200k
JK Dobbins	LAC	900 Rushing Yards (842)	$150k
Derrick Henry	BALT	15 Rushing TDs (14)	$500k
Justice Hill	BALT	50 Receptions (42)	$250k
Joe Mixon	HOU	1,100 Rushing Yards (993)	$250k

One player omitted from this list is Eagles’ RB Saquon Barkley. Barkley cracked the 2,000-yard mark last week and is just 100 yards away from tying Eric Dickerson’s all-time season record of 2,105. However, with Philly locked into the #2 spot in the NFC, they’ve decided to rest their star RB in Week 18.

Tony Pollard

This one will be a tough one to bet and will depend upon if Tony Pollard even plays. He missed last week with an ankle injury which dealt a huge blow towards him reaching his NFL incentives. He has $200k on the line for 60 receptions, but with only 41 so far that’s off the table. But with $200k up for grabs if he gets 2 more rushing TDs and another $250k for getting 83 more rushing yards, he’ll have every incentive to suit up vs the Texans’ 22nd ranked run defense. The targets are doable, however, he’s only had big rushing days in 2/7 recent games (102 and 119 yards) with his last 2 games being just 45 and 35.

JK Dobbins

Chargers’ RB JK Dobbins had 5 levels of rushing yard totals unlocking $150k at each written into his NFL player incentives this season. They included yardage marks of 600, 750, 900, 1,050 and 1,200. With 842 rushing yards he’s hit two of those marks with 900 now squarely in his sights this weekend against the Raiders. 58 more yards isn’t much and he had 78 last week, but he’s only hit 58 yards in 1 of his last 4 games and 3 of his past 10.

Derrick Henry

The Ravens are massive 17.5-point favorites over the Browns on Saturday. And star RB Derrick Henry needs just 1 more TD to move his total from 14 to 15 rushing scores and therefore unlocking $500k in bonuses. Henry has rushing scores in 11/16 games this season, but has found the endzone only once in his last 5 games.

Justice Hill

This one is a long shot. First, because Justice Hill missed last week with a concussion as well as practice time this week. And second, because he needs 8 more receptions to hit 50 and unlock $250k. He hasn’t even been targeted 8 times since Week 1 and his highest catch total in his last 11 games has been 5.

Joe Mixon

With Houston likely to rest many starters this week Joe Mixon may not get a chance to cash another $250k in his NFL player bonuses. But if he does play and puts up 107 more yards on the ground, he’ll reach 1,100 yards and claim a $250k bonus.

NFL Defensive Incentives

Player	Team	Stat Needed	Incentive
Josh Sweat	PHI	10/11/12 Sacks (8)	$250k / $1.5m / $2m
Za’Darius Smith	DET	10 Sacks (8)	$250k
Von Miller	BUF	6 Sacks (4)	$1.5m

If your sportsbook offer NFL Week 18 props for defensive players and sacks then here are a few players to target in your prop picks who have NFL player incentives on the line.

Josh Sweat

The basic strategy here would be to bet on Eagles’ edge rusher Josh Sweat to record 2 more sacks to bring his total from 8 to 10 and earn him another $250k in bonuses. But 11 sacks bumps that to $1.5 million and 12 sacks bumps it to $2 million. Given he only has 1 sack in his last 5 games and the Eagles may elect to give him some rest with the #2 spot locked up, it may not be wise to bet too heavily on his Week 18 player props.

Za’Darius Smith

$250k is up for grabs when Za’Darius Smith and the Lions meet the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. If he sacks Sam Darnold twice, he’ll increase his total from 8 to 10 sacks and cash his bonus.

Von Miller

This is simple and lucrative. If Von Miller can record 2 more sacks this season when the Bills meet the Patriots, his bonus of $1.5 million for 2024 NFL player incentives will kick in.