MLS Week 8 Predictions and Best Bets

It’s MLS Week 8 and before we get into this weekend’s MLS predictions, let’s give a quick summary of the week.

CONCACAF Champions Cup review:

• LA Galaxy lost to Tigres 3-2
• Miami beat LAFC 3-1
• Vancouver drew Pumas 2-2 and advanced
• In the all-Mexico matchup Cruz Azul beat Club America 2-1

Undefeated and Winless:

• Columbus and Miami
• Toronto, Montreal and LA Galaxy

Montreal gets a chance in their first home game of the year but it won’t be easy vs Charlotte.

There are 12 games on Saturday and 3 more on Sunday including SNS featuring St. Louis hosting Columbus.

MLS Picks and Parlays #1

Saturday MLS picks in a two-game parlay. 

Atlanta United vs New England Prediction

Atlanta is still not out of 3rd gear, at 2-3-2 but they have scored 11 goals in 7 games, but they’ve also given up 12 and are 10th with 9 points.

New England technically isn’t too far behind in 13th with 4 points at 1-1-4 but there doesn’t seem to be much to get excited about here. At least Atlanta can score. New England has 3 goals in 6 games and none from open play. 

On the road they’re haven’t won in MLS in 9 and further back it’s only 4 road wins in 33. 

Atlanta wins for me and you can never go wrong with betting on Latte Lath with 5G/1A already. 

• MLS Predictions: Atlanta to win

DC United vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

5th Cincy at 4-1-2 travel to play DC who are 12th at 1-3-3.

DC goes as Christian Benteke goes. The big man is their only offensive source. He has 5G/1A and has scored 5 of DC’s overall 9 goals. He leads the league in shots on target with 17 too. And it’s not been enough. As long as he’s around they have a chance to score. DC has scored in 6/7 but have also conceded in 6/7. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 6-1. They’ve not won in 4 though and have been played off the field in losses of 4-1, 2-1 and 6-1 recently. DC has also allowed the 4th-most shots on target. 

Cincy hasn’t lost in 3 and have won 2 straight 2-1 and 1-0. They’ve played a ton of extra games with CCC too. Overall they’ve lost just 3 times in 11 games and a 2-0 road shutout loss to Charlotte is the only game they’ve not scored. 

Perhaps BTTS or any sort of bet on Cincy to win, double chance, draw no bet or just to score.

• MLS Predictions: Cincinnati to score
• Parlay Picks: Atlanta to win / Cincinnati to score (-103)

MLS Picks and Parlays #2

Another three-game MLS picks parlay.

NYCFC vs Philadelphia Prediction

11th NYCFC hosts 3rd Philadelphia.

This was lining up as a definite BTTS bet for me until the news broke that Philly traded Daniel Gazdag to the Columbus Crew. Gazdag is a key facilitator in the midfield and has 2G/2A and was Philly’s all-time leading scorer. The Union get $4.5 million. 

Certainly Philly could still score. Tai Baribo still leads the league with 6 goals and they’re 3rd in xG in MLS. But I’d like to see how they do without Gazdag. 

NYCFC aren’t the best defensive team giving up a goal in 6/7 including 6 goals allowed in their past 2 games, both losses, 4-3 and 2-1. 

Offensively, NYC has only failed to score twice, away to Columbus and LAFC. At home in MLS, the Pigeons have scored in 14/15 going back to last season, but the BTTS has hit in 9 of those 10. 

This season home or away, the BTTS & Over 2.5 has hit in 4/5.

• MLS Predictions: NYCFC to score

Nashville vs RSL Prediction

9th in the East Nashville hosts 10th in the West RSL. 

Nashville drew and lost in their opening 2. Then won 3 straight. And have now lost 2-1 in two straight games. The Yotes have scored in 5 straight though. They’re set to be out captain Walker Zimmerman on defense who had a scary head injury last week. 

RLS do have 3 wins, but 2 were at home and they’re vs 1 win Seattle, 1 win Houston and 0 win LA Galaxy. Their 7 goals scored are tied for the 5th-fewest. Diego Luna has 3G/2A but no one else has more than 1 goal. 

• MLS Predictions: Nashville to score

LAFC vs San Jose Prediction

These teams are side-by-side in the West with SJ actually higher in 8th with 10 points, vs LAFC 9th with 9 points. 

San Jose has been much better. They had been winless in 4 games before blowing out DC 6-1 last week. They had 4 different scorers and Josef Martinez netted a hat-trick. They’ve scored in 6/7, allowed in 6/7, the Over 2.5 is 5-2 and they own both highest xG and the worst xGA. They’ve also allowed the most shots on target against. 

LAFC can shift their focus to MLS after getting knocked out of CCC. They’ve heavily underperformed and have just 2 wins in their last 8 games. They lost to Miami midweek and last weekend lost 1-0 away to the previously winless Dynamo. The usually high-scoring LAFC have only 8 MLS goals and none still from Denis Bouanga. 

Last season they played 4 times and the scores were 3-1 SJ, 6-2 LA, 4-1 LA and 3-1 LA. 

The last 10 have all seen the BTTS hit and many Over 2.5s too, plus 14/15 have seen the BTTS hit. 

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
• Parlay Picks: NYCFC to score / Nashville to score / LAFC vs SJ both to score (+144)

MLS Picks and Parlays #3

We have 3 games on Sunday. SKC was a clear fade team not winning since September but they got a win immediately after Peter Vermes got fired beating another struggling team, their rivals St. Louis 2-0 last week. So now, they need to be slightly re-assessed. Will the new coach bump continue? They meat Portland who haven’t lost in 4 games but drew 0-0 last week.

St. Louis, with just 2 wins, at 2-2-2 host 1st place in the East Columbus. St. Louis has scored only 4 and allowed only 4. The Crew haven’t lost yet and have only allowed 5 goals. Maybe this is a good Under bet. 

Let’s just focus on the most interesting game, Chicago hosting Miami. 

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami Prediction

Miami comes in off a huge comeback in CCC this week. They’ve still not lost in MLS. But with CCC, MLS and CCC coming thick and fast maybe there is some rotation this weekend. Maybe Messi sits out or starts on the bench.

In all comps Miami only lost once this season, vs LAFC in Leg 1 of CCC (1-0). That’s the only time they haven’t scored. They’ve conceded now in 5 straight. 

Chicago games see tons of goals at both ends. They’ve scored 14 but allowed 12, good for an average of 3.7. Last week new signing Jonathan Bamba finally opened his account with his first Fire goal, albeit in a 2-1 loss to the Red Bulls. 

Until this trend ends it seems like a good streak to ride. The Fire’s scores have been a 4-2 loss, 2-2 draw, wins of 3-1, 2-1, and 3-1, then a 1-1 draw and 2-1 loss.

Last year Miami won 2-1 and 4-1. Previous scores were 4-1, 3-2 and 3-1 Chicago. 

Miami to win is +130, BTTS is -210 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is -133. 

Obviously if Messi and Suarez are playing they’re always good for goal, assist and shot props. For the Fire, you could maybe focus on Hugo Cuypers who has 5G/1A and 17 shot attempts and 9 on target. 1 shot on target for Cuypers in an SGP would boost this to +125. 

• MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-133)

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