There are 13 games on Wednesday, May 28 for some midweek MLS action. We’ll break down 8 of them for this week’s MLS predictions.
2 weeks ago we saw barely any goals and the bets didn’t go so well. This weekend we saw 55 goals in 15 games good for a 3.66 average. 8 games had 4+ goals and there were three 3-3 draws.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Miami vs Montreal Prediction
Both of these teams are struggling. Montreal still has just 1 win all season. And, only 10 goals scored in 15 games.
In all matches they’re winless in 4 and that includes a loss to CPL side Forge in the Canadian Championship. But, in MLS they usually at least put up a fight, albeit in almost-never winning efforts. They beat NYCFC 1-0, drew Columbus 1-1, got routed by TFC 6-1 but played a man down all game and then drew LAFC 2-2 on the weekend and took a 2–0 lead.
Miami aren’t in as bad of shape by any means, but for their standards, it may actually be worse. A 3-3 draw with Philly this weekend means they’re winless in 4, have 1 win in 8, have been outscored 23-15 in that time. Ridiculously, they’ve allowed 3+ goals now in 4 straight, 3+ in 6/7 and 2+ in 7/8. Getting a 3-3 draw doesn’t paint the full picture as they were down 3-1 until a Messi free kick goal in the 87th minute.
It was two high-scoring road wins last season with Montreal and then Miami each winning 3-2 away from home.
Miami should win, but then all their games turn into shootouts so let’s back em to score 2+.
- MLS Predictions: Miami over 1.5
New York vs Charlotte Prediction
New York has been mediocre, but at home are 5–1-1 and have outscored opponents 17-6.
After 2 losses, New York won in PKs in the USOC after a 2-2 draw and then won 2-0 in DC this weekend. In all comps they’ve scored in 8 of their past 9, and at home they’ve scored in all 8 across all matches, plus 2+ in 6/8.
They host a Charlotte team that is basically the opposite on the road at 1-1-5, and outscored 14-7.
The Crown snapped a 4-game losing slide on the weekend beating Columbus 3-2 at home. But they’ll go back on the road here. They’re usually tight defense from past years is no more. They’ve given up 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2 goals in their past 5. The offense has been keeping them in games with 15 goals in 7. With all of those goals at both ends, the BTTS & Over 2.5 is on a 7-0 run.
Last year New York won 3-1 at home and they drew 1-1 in Charlotte. The BTTS is 5-0. There’s been 2+ goals scored between them in all 8 all-time meetings and New York has scored in 7/8.
- MLS Predictions: New York to score
Toronto vs Philadelphia Prediction
In true Toronto fashion, they lost again but kept it close losing 2-1 at home to Nashville this weekend. That game was 2-0 though with 2 Sam Surridge goals before Osorio made his return and scored late in the 91st.
They still have only 3 wins and have conceded in 12/15 overall games.
The Union went back-and-forth with Miami and ended level in a 3-3 draw. They’re undefeated in 9 at 7-2-0, outscoring opponents 22-10 in that time. Tai Baribo is pulling away in the Golden Boot race with 13 goals and goals in 4 straight and 6 goals in 4 games.
Toronto wasn’t bad vs Philly last year drawing 0-0 in Philly and winning 2-1 in Toronto.
The best bet is likely a Philly win, it’s just that TFC seem to hang around games and seem capable of getting some draws here and there.
- MLS Predictions: Philadelphia to score
- Parlay Picks: Miami over 1.5 / NYRB to score / Philly to score (+107)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
Cincinnati vs Dallas Prediction
Cincinnati will be looking to pick themselves up after going to Atlanta and seeing the previously dormant Five Stripes offense explode for 4 goals, in a 4-2 loss.
Cincy drew 1-1 the game prior but are 7–1-2 across their past 10 games. All three non-wins came on the road. At home, they’re 1 of 2 teams (Seattle) who have still yet to lose, while scoring 10 and allowing only 4 goals.
Dallas lost 1-0 away to Seattle on the weekend. They’re winless in 5 in all comps and have only 2 wins in 10. Those 2 wins came vs Alta in the USOC and in a dramatic comeback win (4-3) over a heavily rotated Miami team. FCD haven’t kept a clean sheet in 7 games either.
I generally like Cincy for the win here. My only concern is they’ll have the shortest rest outside of Atlanta this midweek having played Sunday night and could rotate some pieces. They also lost defender Hagglund to a broken rub and punctured lung on Sunday.
- MLS Predictions: Cincinnati double chance
NYCFC vs Houston Prediction
Houston have improved in recent weeks but they’ll still come into this one off the backs of a 3-1 loss to Austin in the USOC and a 3-3 draw to San Jose in MLS this past weekend. Both were on the road, where they’ll also be here, away in New York.
Games in New York are never easy where the Pigeons are 6-0-2, outscoring opponents 12-6. They’ve won their past 2 home games 2-0 and 3-1 and have scored in 18/20 home games going back into last season.
I like most NYC games for Unders, as they’re 9-6 to Under 2.5 and their games average only 2.2 GPG, tied for the second-fewest.
Houston has found the back of the net though in 6 straight and 11/12.
- MLS Predictions: NYCFC to score
Vancouver vs Minnesota Prediction
1st in the West Vancouver hosts 3rd in the West Minnesota.
These teams are hard to split. They’ve played 29 combined MLS games this season between them they’ve only suffered 4 losses, 1 for Vancouver and 3 for Minnesota.
They’ve also only allowed 12 and 14 goals respectively. 26 goals allowed combined easily comes in under a GPG.
Look at all MLS and the Caps own the top defense and the Loons the 3rd-best, with New England between them in 2nd.
I like this to be tight. Maybe a draw, Under 2.5 or Under 3.5 in a parlay. However, they played on April 25 and Vancouver won 3-1 in Minnesota. Berhalter opened the scoring, Vite had a brace and the Loons scored late in the 80’ to avoid the shutout.
With the Champions Cup Final against Cruz Azul coming up on Sunday, you’ve have to expect some key Caps’ players to get a rest here too.
The Caps haven’t lost a game in any match in 14, while Minnesota has 2 losses in 16. If not an Under, this could have good draw potential.
- MLS Predictions: Under 3.5
- Parlay Picks: Cincinnati double chance / NYCFC to score / Vancouver vs Minnesota under 3.5 (-115)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
Seattle vs San Diego Prediction
It’s 5th Seattle hosting 2nd San Diego in the West. It’s als a rematch of an April 5 matchup that saw San Diego dominate in California winning 3-0 and scoring all 3 in the first half.
San Diego lost 3 straight after that win, but have since gone 4–1-0. It was seconds away from a 1-1 draw with the Galaxy this weekend before Chucky Lozano grabbed the winner after a disastrous LA error deep into stoppage time. San Diego has scored 11 goals in 5 gams while also allowing only 2 and keeping 3 clean sheets.
For Seattle, they used that loss to San Diego as a turning point. After losing that game they were winless in 5. But since, they’re 5-2-1 and have scored in all but the 1 loss, an away 4-0 defeat to LAFC.
Seattle, along with Cincy are the only teams who have to lose at home. The Sounders are 4-2-0 at Lumen Field, outscoring opponents 15-5.
- MLS Predictions: Seattle to score
LA Galaxy vs San Jose Prediction
The Cali Clasico is always one of the highest scoring rivalries every season. Last year LA swept aside San Jose winning 3-1, 4-3, and 3-0 in MLS and then again, 2-1 in the Leagues Cup.
There’s now been 3+ goals in 11 straight games between them. In those 11 the total goals scored is 46. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is also 10-1.
It’s hard to bet against that trend continuing. LA have allowed 35 goals in 15 games, easily the most. No one else has allowed more than 27. But San Jose is just below that mark, having allowed 26, so is also among the worst.
However, San Jose’s 32 goals scored is also tops in all of MLS. They had 3 this weekend vs Houston in a 3-3 dra which makes them undefeated in 7 at 4-3-0 in all matches.
LA has only scored 13 goals on the year, among the worst. They had only 1 this weekend in an “almost draw” vs San Diego. But … in true LA fashion this season they imploded imn the late stages and gave up the winner in stoppage time ans lost 2-1.
So they’re still winless. They at least have 5 goals in 3 games, and have offensive talent. At home and desperate and vs a weak Quakes defense, you’d think they can contribute in another high-scoring Cali Clasico.
- MLS Predictions: Both to score & over 2.5
- Parlay Picks: Seattle to score / LA vs SJ btts & O2.5 (+101)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
