Five series have moved into Game 3s in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Home teams have won 8/16 in regulation and 11/16 after PKs. A road team has only win in regulation in 3/16 games through 2 rounds. Let’s break down each game for this weekend’s MLS predictions.
Charlotte vs NYCFC Prediction
Alonso Martinez’s first half goal was the only one in Game 1 and saw NY go on the road and win 1-0. But Charlotte was without Zaha who waa suspended.
He returned in GAme but didn’t score. Game 2 was close again (0-0) though and needed extra shooters in PKs to decide a winner. Charlotte keeper Kahlina came up big in the 7th round to get Charlotte the win and force a Game 3.
NY has only scored only 5 goals in 6 games and has clean sheets in 3/10, but all of those have come vs Charlotte. This season they’ve played 4 times and all the scores have been close: 2-0, 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0.
Why would this be different?
A draw is possible at +250. Or this same-game parlay.
- MLS Picks Today: Charlotte double chance & under 3.5 (-120)
Minnesota United vs Seattle Sounders Prediction
In Game 1 they drew 0-0 in Minnesota and the Loons went on to win in PKs. The win came without Minnesota putting a single shot on target during regulation.
I had though it be tight again in Game 2, but Seattle exploded for 3 goals within 41 minutes to take a 3-0 lead, then Minnesota scored twice in 1st half stoppage time and it was 3-2 at half. Obed Varhas scored his 2nd late in the game and Seattle won 4-2.
That was Seattle’s first win over Minnesota this season having lost the previous 3, also losing 3-2 and 1-0 in the regular season.
Minnesota has only not scored in 2/12 games, but have only 2 clean sheets in 25 games! But both came vs Seattle and when playing at home.
Meanwhile, Seattle is undefeated in 6, have scored in 11/12 and kept clean sheets in 3/5.
Another game where a draw or under looks possible to me. Let’s combine a version of that again.
I started leaning to Minnesota at home, but they also had 0 shots in Game 1 and were run off the field in Game 2.
- MLS Picks Today: Seattle double chance and under 3.5 (-105)
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Prediction
Cincy was good in Game 1, but squandered chances and Kevin Denkey’s 78’ minute goals stood up as the only goal in a 1-0 win.
Game 2 was all Columbus, and Cincy’s Kubo taking a red card just 38 minutes into the game played into that.
The Crew won 4-0 and led in shots 19-1, shots on target 9-0, xG 3.84 to 0.09. 4 different players scored for the Crew.
Cincy’s 0 shots on target, the first time since April 2022.
Prior to Game 2, Denkey had A, G, G, and G and shots on target totals in his last 6 of 1, 2, 2, 3, 1 and 2.
Before last game Cincy was 5-1-0 in 6, only giving up 4 total goals.
Columbus now has only 3 wins in 11
Cincy has just been better all year and have the home edge. Win (+150) or to advance (-125).
- MLS Picks Today: Cincinnati to advance (-125)
Inter Miami vs Nashville Prediction
Game 1: It was all Miami with Nashville scoring late and Miami winning 3-1.
Game 2: It was all Nashville and Miami scored late with Nashville winning 2-1. Another loss on the Miami side is Suarez getting suspended for violent conduct so he’ll be a big miss in Game 3.
Nashville finally beat Miami, their first win over the Herons in 10 meetings!Miami did lead in xG 3.09 to 2.36.
Past scores in this time are now 2-1, 3-1, 5-2, 2-1, 3-1, 3-1, 2-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1. The BTTS & Over 2.5 prop has cashed in 12/14. BTTS is 13-1.
In his last 5 games Messi has 8G/6A. He’s had a shot on target in 13 straight and multiple shots on target in 10 straight.
There’s been 3+ goals in 18/20 recent Miami games and the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 14-6 in that time. They have just 2 clean sheets in 20.
Nashville games have been filled with goals too. BTTS is 12-1 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 11-2 in recent games.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS & Over .25 and Messi g/a (-115)
San Diego FC vs Portland Timbers Prediction
Game 1 saw all of the goals come in the first half and then scoring stopped. San Diego led 2-0 with goals from Valakari and Dreyer, Velde pulled one back for Portland soon after but that was it, a 2-1 San Diego win. The Timbers saw red in the 66’ with Fory getting sent off which didn’t help in their comeback attempt. What’s even more impressive is that San Diego did it without Lozano, held out of the team for disciplinary issues.
In Game 2, Lozano came back from a benching and scored in the 2nd half to give San Diego a 2-1 lead. But Portland had plenty of chances near the end and eventually tied it off a corner deep into stoppage time for a 2-2 draw from Gage Guerra, a Timbers II product.
The game went to PKs and SD missed 3 shots giving Portland the win.
Velde scored the other Timbers goal and has now scored in both games for Portland and he’s a solid prop pick for goals or shots. He has 1+ shot on target in 10 straight, (16 total).
San Diego saw starting keeper Dos Santos leave on a stretcher wth a fractured cheekbone.
Dreyer didn’t score for San Diego last game ,but he did assist and has 5G/2A in his last 4 games to go with 1+ shot on target in 11 straight.
Only twice in 16 games have San Diego not scored but they’ve conceded in 7/8 too.
In the regular season they drew 0-0 in Sn Diego in August and SD won 4-0 in Portland on Decision Day.
The Timbers may have won last game but it needed PKs. In regulation they have just 1 win in 8 and 2/14. Both came at home.
Home San Diego games AND road Portland games have been lower-scoring, though we did have 3 goals in Game 1.
- MLS Picks Today: San Diego to win and score over 1.5 (-138)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
