It’s down to the final 8 teams in this weekend’s MLS Conference Semifinals from November 22-24. This round does have extra-time if we’re tied at the end of regulation so no more going straight to PKs. Let’s break down each game for our MLS predictions.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs LAFC Prediction
2nd hosts 3rd from the regular season in the West here between two teams with plenty of history.
There was little between them this season with a 2-2 draw in Vancouver and a 1-0 Vancouver win in LA. They met in Round One of the playoffs last year with LAFC winning in 3 games. They also met in the group stage of Leagues Cup last year, a 2-2 draw, won in PKs by Vancouver. They also played in the 2023 Round One playoffs won in 3 by LA and in the 2023 CCL won by LA. While LA has 8 wins in 14 since 2023, it’s really been back—and—forth.
In Round One, the Caps routed Dallas in Game 3-0 holding Dallas to 0 shot attempts! It was much closer in Dallas in Game 2, with FCD scoring early and almost holding on for the win until Ralph Priso scored in the 92’ to force PKs where Vancouver went on to win 4-2.
Muller has been an instant impact for the Caps with 8G/3A in 9 games. Since he got to MLS, just Messi, Bouanga, Son and Dreyer have more goal contributions.
With the time off, the Caps could also see Blackmon and White return from injury.
LAFC also only needed 2 games to get by Austin, first winning 2-1 at home and then 4-1 away. In Game 1 it was an OG and Ordaz with the goals and in Game 2, Ebobisse, Son and 2 from Bouanga.
Vancouver has only lost once in 11 games and they played the whole game down a man on Decision Day. It’s been 15 games since they didn’t score, but they have just 1 clean sheet in 7 and 3 in 12.
LAFC’s only loss in 10 games was with Son and Bouanga away on international duty. They’re 8-1-1 in 10, and have only 2 losses in 17, scoring in 16/17. A few weeks back they had 3 straight clean sheets but now they’ve conceded in 4 straight.
LA may be the higher-profile team but it’s Vancouver favoured to win in regulation at +115 and to advance at -150. It is probably a coin flip so at +120 LAFC to advance likely has better value. But the Caps have broken all kinds of franchise records this year.
What’s not a coinflip should be goals. BTTS is -170. We can add in some player props to improve that price in a SGP too or the Over 2.5. Bouanga has been a terror vs the Caps scoring 9 to go with 7 assists in 13 all-time meetings vs them.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-111)
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Prediction
Two teams that needed all 3 games in Round One meet here.
Cincy played Columbus and won 1-0, lost 4-0 (took red card) and then in Game 3 won 2-1. It was big comeback as they fell behind 1-0 just over an hour in, but then Brenner took over scoring in the 67’ and 86’ to rescue the win for Cincy.
Only the Game 2 loss to Columbus is the only losses Cincy has in 8 games, where they’re 6-1-1 with 3 clean sheets in their last 5.
Miami played Nashville and won 3-1, lost 2-1 and then cruised in Game 3 to a 4-0 route with Messi both scoring twice and assisting twice. He’s been on fire
In his last 6 games Messi has 10G/8A. He’s had a shot on target in 14 straight and multiple shots on target in 11 straight.
Miami also only has a Game 2 loss on their resume in recent weeks being 5-0-1, where they’ve outscoring opponents 21-6, scoring 4, 4, 5, 3, 1 and 4 goals in those ganes.
There’s been 3+ goals in 19/21 recent Miami games and the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 14-7 in that time. They have just 3 clean sheets in 21 but did almost shut out Nashville twice, with then only scoring very late off a free kick in Game 1 and then getting shut out in Game 3.
Cincy won the first meeting this year 3-0 at home in July, before they drew 0-0 in Miami just a couple weeks later. Cincy has had success vs Miami winning 3/5 and being 3-1-1. They’ve lost in regulation just 1 time in 9 games.
If Cincy wins, it likely won’t be by blowout fashion. 16/20 regular season wins were by just 1 goal and both playoff wins also came by 1. They were also minutes away from a coin flip shootout deciding Game 3 vs Columbus.
It’s a Miami game,so how can we not just keep betting on goals. The defense did tighten up vs Nashville last round but can it continue? They’re on the road here against another top team with game-breakers in Evander and Denkey. Evander’s 33 goal contributions were only behind Messi and Dreyer. Miami’s defense makes the upset for Cincy look very tempting.
But Messi is also scorching hot and can win the game himself. Miami to advance at -140 is an option. Or the BTTS & Over 2.5 (-161).
- MLS Picks Today: Miami to advance & Messi goal or assist (-105)
Philadelphia vs NYCFC Prediction
NYCFC played in one of the tightest Round One series. They won 1-0 away in Charlotte. Then drew 0-0 at home and lost in PKs. Then back in Charlotte in Game 3 they won 3-2. Nico Fernandez had 2 goals in Game 3.
But they suffered some losses as they’ll be out two central mids in suspension and injury with Aiden O’Neill and Andres Perea. But things got worse over the international break with leading scorer Alonso Martinez suffering a torn ACL with Costa Rica.
Road teams didn’t win often in Round One but NYC did win twice so they’ll have some confidence going to Philly. They were also the only team to pull off the Round One upset.
Still, NYC’s overall form is only mediore. They’re 3-1-3 in regulation. They’ve scored more than 1 goal just 1 time in 5 games, while conceding more than 1 also only once in 5 games.
The Union were up 2-0 over Chicago in Game 1, then coughed up 2 late goals to draw 2-2, before going on to win in PKs. In Game 2 they cruised though in Chicago to a 3-0 win to advance in 2 games.
Philly’s Decision Day loss to Charlotte is their only loss in 6 games, and in those games they’ve outscored opponents 13-4 to go with 4 clean sheets. Tai Baribo may be the leader in the goals department, but 18 players have scored this season, and 10 have 5+ goal contributions.
Both matches this season were super close, with each winning 1-0 at home.
They also have playoff experience against each other meeting in the 2021 and 2022 Conference Finals won by NYC and Philly respectively.
The Supporters Shield winners are home and odds-on favourites here at -118 in regulation and -210 to advance. The Union lost just 1 game at home all season so they’re hard to bet against.
Parlay options? Philly to advance, Philly double chance or Philly double chance and Under 3.5 (-138).
- MLS Picks Today: Philly moneyline (-118)
San Diego FC vs Minnesota United Prediction
The league’s best-ever expansion team, San Diego, who finished 1st in the West, hosts 4th-placed Minnesota.
Minnesota had a whirlwind Round One. They had 0 shots on target in Game 1 and drew Seattle 0-0 but won in PKs. Then got run off the pitch down 3-0 in Game2 before losing 4-2. In Game 3 they went down 2-0, cut the lead to 2-1, took a red card, fought back to take a 3-2 lead, gave up the lead in the 88’ and needed 7 rounds of PKs to win and advance
Overall, you really can’t say Minnesota are in good form. In fact, they’re the team in the worst form of the 8 remaining sides. They’ve actually not won in regulation in 4 games and have just 1 win in 8, vs a non-playoff team in SKC.
San Diego just came through 4 games with Portland. They met on Decision Day, which was a 4-0 San Diego win. They won in Game 1 by a 2-1 score, then drew 2-2 and lost in PKs in Game 2 and then got another 4-0 win in Game 3 to wrap things up.
Anders Dreyer had 3G/2A in Round One and in his last 5 games he has 7G/3A. He’s had 1+ shot on target in 12 straight games (26 total).
Overall, they’ve not lost in regulation in 5 matches, and have just 2 regulation losses in 13, while only failing to score twice in 17. But clean sheets have been hard to come by, with only 2 in 9 — both vs Portland.
In their 2 matches this year San Diego won 4-2 in Minnesota and then Minnesota won 3-1 in San Diego.
Other interesting points to consider are that San Diego has become the first expansion team since Nashville in 2020 to reach the Conference Semis, while Minnesota has seen 4 of their last 6 playoff games go to PKs and … they’ve won all 4.
Minnesota will certainly sit back in this game, and San Diego home games are typically lower-scoring, so this could be tight and low-scoring. The Loons also had the 3rd-best road record in all of MLS behind only San Diego and Cincinnati.
- MLS Picks Today: San Diego moneyline & Dreyer goal or assist (-120)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
