It’s MLS Week 6 with 13 games on Saturday followed by 2 more on Sunday with SNF being Portland vs Houston. A few teams have CONCACAF Champions Cup Quarterfinals to look ahead to with the LA Galaxy playing Tigers on Tuesday, and Vancouver meeting Tigres and Miami and LAFC meeting each other on Wednesday. Those teams could rotate this weekend, so keep that in mind when making your MLS predictions.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Atlanta United vs NYCFC Prediction
These two always see goals between them. It was 1-1 and 2-2 last year and 2-2, 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2 in other recent matchups.
NYC is 2-2-1 but their two wins came at home. On the road they’ve lost 1-0 and drew 0-0 last week and also drew Miami 2-2 despite playing most of the game up a man. Top scorer Alonso Martinez was away last week but should be back. Last week’s draw with Columbus was a tough game offensively as they had 0 shots on target.
Ex-coach Ronny Delia who led NYC to the MLS Cup in 2021 is now on the Atlanta sidelines and will face his old team for the first time.
Atlanta made some of the biggest waves this offseason but have been disappointing at 1-2-2 and winless in 4. New signing Latte Lath does have 4 goals already and the slew of international absences from last week should return.
Their only win came in the season opener vs a Montreal team that just fired their coach and they still gave up 2 goals, winning 3-2. Since, it’s a 2-0 loss, 0-0 draw, 2-1 loss and 2-2 draw.
A 0-0 with the Red Bulls this season notwithstanding, Atlanta home games typically produce goals. The BTTS and Over 2.5 is 6-1 and 11-2 and… 15-3 in MLS games going back into last season at the Benz.
- MLS Predictions: Atlanta to Score
Colorado Rapids vs Charlotte Prediction
The Crown have just 1 loss so far and that was away to Miami and only 1-0. Otherwise it’s a 2-2 draw and wins of 2-0, 2-0 and 4-1. Last week’s route of San Jose saw Pep Biel 1G/2A and get named player of the week. However, all 3 of Charlotte’s win have come at home, not on the road where they’ll be here.
Colorado got embarrassed at home last week losing 3-0 to Portland. They had scored 6 goals in their 3 previous games. I expect some sorta response from the Rapids here.
Charlotte have been one of the most impressive teams so far, but they’ve yet to prove they can win on the road, a place they have just 1 win in 10 away MLS games going back into last season and just 1 clean sheet in 12.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal Prediction
One team is over performing expectations while the other is underperforming, or maybe performing exactly how you would expect for a team that made little investment to their team in the offseason and has started the year with 5 straight road games.
An 0-1-4 record where they were outscored 9-2 in that time saw Montreal fire head coach Laurent Courtois. They’re still on the road here and will face an exciting Chicago team who’s 3-1-1 and have scored 12 while allowing 9.
The Fire own the league’s 2nd-leading score in Hugo Cuypers with 5 goals and 1 assist.
Last season both won at home, Chicago 4-3 and Montreal 2-0. There’s been 2+ between them in 6/7.
This should be a good BTTS game. It’s hit in all Fire games (4-2 loss, 2-2 draw, then 3-1 win, 2-1 win, 3-1 win). But then Montreal has been so bad it could just be a Fire win. But then you maybe have to consider the “new coach bump” angle. So let’s just bet Over 1.5 in this parlay.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: Atlanta to score / Colorado vs Charlotte over 1.5 / Chicago vs Montreal over 1.5 (-133)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
This should be the highlight match of the weekend between Miami 3-1-0 and Philly 4-0-1. Both have piled up goals with Miami with 9 goals and Philly 12.
Messi is likely to miss out with injury after not playing or Argentina, but the Herons have 5 other players who have scored in MLS led by Telco Segovia with 3 goals and Tadeo Allende with 2. Luis Suarez has racked up 4 assists.
Miami has CCC to look ahead to but they have lost any game in MLS, CCC or even pre-season since losing to Atlanta in the playoffs (13), have won 6 straight and outscored opponents 14-3.
The Union have the league’s top scorer in Tai Baribo with 6 goals, have the 3rd-best xG, the most shots on target and the 8th-most attacking third touches.
The offense has cooled down a bit only scoring twice in the past 2 games but has still scored in all 5 games.
Last year Miami won both meetings 2-1 and 3-1. Other scores were 4-1, 4-1, 2-0 and 2-1
- MLS Predictions: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-123)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
LA Galaxy vs Orlando City Prediction
Juggling Champions Cup and a slew of injuries has taken its toll on Galaxy who have yet to win in MLS at 0-2-3 and have been outscored 10-4.
Count all matches and they’ve conceded in all 7, but are undefeated in 3, winning 4-1 in CCC and then putting up back-to-back draws in MLS, 1-1 and 2-2 and both on the road.
No team has seen more goals in their games than Orlando who’s average 4.8 GPG in their matches. They’re 4-1 to Over 3.5 and 5-0 to Over 2.5.
Being in opposite conferences they don’t play often and last played in 2023, a 2-0 home Orlando win, Orlando also won 1-0 in LA in 2022, those being their only 2 meetings since 2019.
LA looking ahead to CCC gives me some pause in case Greg Vanney rotates but this is mostly about Orlando who keeps scoring but can’t keep the ball out of their net either. Their scoreless have been 4-2, 4-2, 2-1, 2-2 and 4-1 and they’re second overall in xG.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
St. Louis City SC vs Austin FC Prediction
Both are off to solid starts and both by playing tight defence. Austin is 3-0-2, scoring 4 and conceding 3, while St. Louis had scored 4 and allowed just 1, making them the league’s top defence.
Both teams are 1-2 in lowest average GPG with St. Louis seeing 1.0 and Austin 1.4.
They’re both 4-1 to Under 2.5 and also even Under 1.5. Up it to Under 3.5 and they’re both 5-0.
Look at some advanced analytics and they’re about mid-pack in the West for xG. But among the best for xGa, Austin 1st and 2nd in all of MLS and St. Louis 5th in the West.
Both are among the bottom 10 overall in shots on target, but then among the top 10 in opponent shots on target allowed.
When it comes to attacking third touches St. Louis is dead-last in MLS while Austin is tied 6th-worst.
- MLS Predictions: Under 3.5
- Parlay Picks: LA vs Orlando both to score / St. Louis vs Austin under 3.5 (+116)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
