MLS Decision Day has everyone in action on Saturday, October 18, with all games either at 6pm or 9pm EST.
While Philly has the Supporters’ Shield and tons of teams are eliminated from playoff contention, there is still lots to be decided for home field spots, the Western Conference title winner, seedings and a group of teams fighting to get into the play-in game in the West.
MLS Picks and Parlays #1
Cincinnati vs Montreal Prediction
Cincy can finish 2nd or 3rd in the East, while Montreal are out in 13th.
FCC are going into the playoffs in good form, undefeated in 4 at 3-1-0. Evander’s streak of 3 games in a row with an assist (5 total) ended last game, so too did a streak of 7 games with a shot on target. Denkey has goals in back-to-back games and a shot on target in 5 straight.
There’s nothing left to play for with Montreal but they haven’t given up. They have a 4-1 win and 1-1 draw in their last 2 and are 2-4-2 in their last 8. They’ve conceded in 16 straight. Owusu is usually the main man. He didn’t score or get a shot last game but had 11 games with a shot on target or more beforehand,
Cincy won 3-1 this season. Last year they won 4-1 and Montreal won 2-1. That makes BTTS & over 2.5 a 5-2 bet in the last 7 and BTTS alone 6-1.
- MLS Picks Today: Cincy double chance
Nashville vs Inter Miami Prediction
Miami are tied with Cincy and can also be 3rd or 2nd. Nashville is 6th and with a win could move all the way up to 4th but would need a lot of results to go their way. They could also drop way down into the play-in spots. As things stand, this would be a Round One Playoff matchup.
Nashville is 2-1-0 in their last 3 while scoring 6 goals. They’ve scored in 6 straight and 9/10 but have conceded in 11 straight. Naturally the BTTS is 9-1. BTTS & over 2.5 is 5-1. Surridge has goals in 3 straight and 5/6. Only 1 time in 14 games has he not had a shot on target. Mukhtar didn’t score last game but he did in each of the 3 prior.
After a draw and a loss, Miami won 4-1 and 4-0 in their last 2 games. Messi leads the Golden Boot race and in his last 2 MLS games he has 2 goals and 4 assists. He’s had a shot on target in 11 straight and recently shot on target totals of 5, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, and 3.
Miami won 2-1 this year and have owned this matchup. Miami is undefeated in 8. Past scores are also 2-1, 3-1, 3-1, 2-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-1, 5-1, and 2-1.
The way Miami games go this very likely could go a similar route.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS & Over 2.5
- Parlay Picks: CIN double chance / NAS vs MIA btts & O2.5 (-107)
- ADD Surridge sot (+127) and Messi sot (+145)
MLS Picks and Parlays #2
San Jose vs Austin FC Prediction
This will be the 3rd time they’ve met this season. First it was 2-2 in the USOC and Austin won in PKs. Then Austin won again 3-1 in MLS. It’s actually been 8 games since SJ got the better of Austin. Not since their very first meeting in 2021 has there been a nil-nil. It’s been all goals since with scores of 4-3, 4-0, 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 1-1, 4-3, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1.
Austin are almost locked into 6th, they can’t move up but could drop down to 7th with a loss and Portland win.
The game means much more for San Jose who are on the outside looking in, sitting in 11th. With 38 points, they need to win to try and hop over Colorado and RSL to get into the play-in spot. Just cause they need the win won’t mean they’ll get it. They’ve been in this spot for a while, hanging around the play-in posts. They have 3 wins in 15 overall matches, just 1 win in 5, lost 4-1 last week and have only 1 clean sheet in 18 games. Always good for a goal or two themselves, the BTTS has been money all season long and has hit in 17 of their past 18. Even the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 14-4 in that time.
Austin had some key players missing last week, but played an LAFC team also missing pieces and they got a 1-0 win. That snapped 3 straight losses and was their only clean sheet in 14 games, while they’ve scored 13/14.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS & Over 2.5
New England vs Chicago Prediction
New England, they’re 11th and done.
Chicago have had a banner season and will make the playoffs for the first time in years. They’re currently 8th in the play-in spots, but could jump to 6th so this is huge for them.
The Fire drew 2-2 last game, are 3-1-0 in 4, have only 2 losses in 12, have scored multiple goals in 4 straight and 5/6 and have only failed to score once (Philly) in 16 games.
Fire road games are always high—scoring so that’s not a bad bet. New England just lost 4-1, have 1 win in 6, but have scored in 6/7.
When they played in September, the Frie won 3-2. BTTS bets between these teams have gone 6-1 in recent seasons.
- MLS Picks Today: Chicago to score
- Parlay Picks: SJ vs AUS btts & O2.5 / CHI to score (+101)
MLS Picks and Parlays #3
LA Galaxy vs Minnesota Prediction
It’s been long done for LA, while 4th Minnesota could move up to 2nd.
LA won last week 2-1, though Dallas took an early red card and still managed to score down a man. LA always concede. They’ve done so in 36/40 overall matches this season. They also often score, doing so in 30/40. BTTS is on a 7-0 run and BTTS & Over 2.5 6-1.
The Loons won 3-0 last week but have only 1 win in 4 and have conceded in 8/9. They’re the better team by far but aren’t in top form.
Some way, Somehow, there are always goals between these teams. It was 2-2 this year and past seasons have seen scores of 6-2, 2-1, 2-2, 5-2, 4-3, 3-2, 1-1 and 3-3.
It’s the same story for LA all season; they score lots and concede even more. Why would it change now?
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS
SKC vs Houston Prediction
It’s over for both of these teams, with 14 vs 12.
SKC was on the other end of that 3-0 score with Minnesota last week. That was their 5th straight loss to go with 10 losses in 12 games. SKC often manage to find a goal doing so in 6/8 but have now been shut out in 2/3.
Houston only have 2 wins in 15 themselves and have lost 3-1 and 4-2 in recent games. The goals often come fast and furious at both ends for them with BTTS being 9-1. Ponce leads Houston with 10 goals but 18 different players have scoeed this season.
SKC won 3-1 in May, and last year it was 1-1 and 2-1 Houston. The BTTS is now 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS
- Parlay Picks: LA vs MIN btts / SKC vs HOU btts (+112)
MLS Picks and Parlays #4
Vancouver vs Dallas Prediction
1st Vancouver is in pole position to win the West and any points in this game will do it with San Diego 3 points behind. So a draw will do.
The Caps are one of the league’s hottest teams right now. Their Canadian Championship winners, are undefeated in 8 league games and have won 4-1 and 2-1 in their last 2. Muller scored the late late winner last week and he’s got 7G/3A in 7 games. His first game he only played 29 mins, so he’s contributed a goal or assist in every game where he’s played at least an hour.
Dallas is 8th with 41 points. That’s 1 of the 2 play-in spots. But all kinds of movement can happen here. Dallas can still drop out of the playoff picture. RSL with 40, Colorado with 40 and San Jose with 38 are all in the picture.
FCD had a 8-game undefeated run going before taking an early red card last week vs LA and losing 2-1. What’s worse is 1st and 4th-leading scorers Musa and Farrington are both suspended this week.
The BTTS is 7-1 and given the Caps have also conceded in 5 straight and how badly Dallas need this, that could be a good bet.
This was a tight game back in March, though with Vancouver only winning 1-0 and with 0.8xg to Dallas’ 0.2.
While a draw will do for Vancouver, it may not be enough for Dallas, and being forced to go for a win either limited attackers may help in Vancouver getting the win.
- MLS Picks Today: Vancouver to win (-210)
Colorado vs LAFC Prediction
As mentioned, Colorado may be 10th, but they can jump to 9th or drop to 8th into the play-in game. The way the Rapids have played in recent weeks it may be the latter. They have 1 win in 6 and none in their last 3 and they;ve not kept a clean sheet in 13 games. Bad news were an in-form and high-flying LAFC side.
LAFC are 3rd. They can’t mvoe to first but can go to 2nd or drop to 4th. Bouanga and Son had scored 18 straight goals for LAFC but then left for international duty. in their absence, LAFC still won 2-0 and then lost 1-0. Last week’s lost snapped a run of 6 wins where they had outscored opponents 18-5. It was the first time they didn’t score in 13.
This will be the 4th meeting this season with each winning one leg in the Concacaf Champions Cup and LAFC winning 3-0 in MLS. LAFC is 4-0-1 in the last 5 head-to-heads.
You’d have to bet something on LAFC with some sorta prop on Bouanga and/or Son. Is Messi fails to score earlier in the night, Bouanga could still be in line for the Golden Boot with a big night.
- MLS Picks Today: LAFC over 1.5 (-130)
- Parlay Picks: VAN win / LAFC over 1.5 (+161)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
