MLS Cup is here with two of the most exciting teams of the season meeting on Saturday, December 6 230pm EST at Miami’s Chase Stadium.
Let’s break down the full matchup, with the odds, form of both teams, key stats, props and MLS Cup predictions.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps Odds
| BET | ODDS |
| Miami | -125 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Vancouver | +270 |
| Miami to lift trophy | -225 |
| Vancouver to lift trophy | +162 |
| Over 2.5 | -225 |
| Under 2.5 | +162 |
| Both to Score Yes | -225 |
| Both to Score No | +162 |
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Head-to-Head
There’s only been 3 meetings between these teams ever and 2 came this year in the Concacaf Champions Cup Semifinals, won 2-0 and 3-1 by Vancouver.
Last year they met in the regular season in Vancouver as well and Miami won 2-1. Miami won that one without the likes of Messi, Suarez, or Busquets in the lineup.
If we extend the head-to-head review to a Messi vs Muller outlook we get:
- Muller is 7-0-3 vs Messi
- And 2/3 Messi wins were friendlies
- Muller and Germany beat Messi and Argentina in the 2014 World cup Final
Miami Preview
Miami has hit top gear at the perfect time with everything clicking. Messi is on fire, they’re getting contributions from young players and even the defense has stepped up in recent weeks and against some top players.
In Round One, Miami won 3-1, lost 2-1 and then won 4-0 vs Nashville.
In the Conference Semifinals they rolled Cincinnati 4-0 playing away in Ohio.
Then last round in the Conference Final it was another blowout, this time 5-1 over NYCFC. Messi had just 1 assist, but Silvetti again started in place of Suarez and scored, and Allende exploded for a hat-trick. Miami had 5 goals on just 1.73 of XG. After their 17 playoff goals, Miami has scored 97 goals in all matches this season, which is the most of any team ever in a season.
Allende’s 8 playoff goals ties the playoff record. He now has 12 goals in 12 games. Let’s just look at his shots in this time as well. In the playoffs it’s 13 shots and 9 on target in 5 games, with 2+ on target in 4/5. In the last 12, he has at least a shot attempt in all 12 and 1+ shot on target in 9/12. In one of those games he was a substitute.
Messi has been a lock for a goal or assist, tallying 6G/7A in his 5 playoff games. Go a bit further back and it’s 11G/12A in his last 8 games. He’s had a shot on target in 14/15 games and multiple shots on target in 11/13.
Miami’s only recent loss was Game 2 in Round One vs Nashville, making them 7-0-1, where they’ve outscored opponents 30-7, scoring 4, 4, 5, 3, 1, 4, 4 and 5 goals in those games.
There’s been 3+ goals in 21/23 recent Miami games and the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 15-8 in that time. They have just 4 clean sheets in 23 games but have given up just 3 goals in these 5 playoff games.
Vancouver Preview
The Whitecaps have been in just as good of form as the Herons and specifically since Thomas Muller arrived. Vancouver is 9-5-1 since Muller joined and he has 8G/3A.
Vancouver has only lost once in 16 overall games and they played that whole game down a man on Decision Day vs Dallas. It’s been 17 games since they didn’t score, but they have just 1 clean sheet in 9 and 3 in 14. Playing on the road won’t concern them either, as their last road loss was way back on August 9. And even in that game, they also took an early red card within the opening 30 minutes and still had the game tied at 1-1 until giving up the winner in stoppage time. So you’d have to go all the way back to July 12 for their last loss in a game where they didn’t take a red card, a steak of 20 games.
In the playoffs in Round One, they beat Dallas 3-0, then drew 1-1 and won in PKs.
In the Conference Semifinals, they had a wild back and forth game with LAFC, went up 2-0, were tied 2-2, took a red card, suffered an injury, played extra-time with just 9 players, yet still came out on top in PKs.
Then in the Conference Final they went to San Diego and stormed out of the gates with 3 first-half goals (an OG and 2 from Brian White) which essentially ended the game. San Diego pulled one back in the 60’, then took a red card in the 79’ and the Caps won 3-1. They also did it without the the defender of the year, Blackmon, who was suspended and Halbouni, out with an ACL.
Inter Miami vs Vancouver Best Bet
This is obviously huge for both teams. Winning MLS Cup is why both Messi and Muller were brought to their respective teams. This is the furthest Vancouver has made it in their 15 years as a franchise. Meanwhile, the Messi and Friends experiment will likely be seen as a bit of a failure if they don’t win MLS Cup. This will be the last chance for the group to do it together. Messi and maybe Suarez will be back, but this is the last game for Alba and Busquets as they get set to retire.
It’s hard to bet against either of these teams, they’ve both been moneymakers for weeks now. The Caps are a great story and the Canadian in me wants to see them win. And I think they can. But, the final is in Miami, and betting against Messi is tough to stomach. If I’m picking a winner, I lean Miami.
The Caps have made every final though this season they’ve been involved in — CCC, Canadian Championship and MLS. They’re 1-1 in those finals.
So instead, I’d rather create a same-game parlay. I expect goals. And while it’s harder to pick out 1 Whitecap to target since anyone can step up on any day, I feel it’s easier to target 2 scorching hot players on Miami.
Options:
My starting point is BTTS & Over 2.5. So:
- BTTS & Over 2.5 (-150)
- Add Messi G/A (-115)
- Add Allende shot (-105) / or shot on target (+160)
Or if you want a Miami winner SGP:
- BTTS & Over 2.5 (-150)
- Miami to lift trophy (+140)
- MLS Best Bet: BTTS & O2.5 / Messi G or A / Allende 1+ SOT (+160)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
