MLS Round One, Game 2s of the MLS Cup Playoffs kick off with 5 games on Saturday, 2 on Sunday and 1 on Monday from November 1-3.
In the Game 1,s 7/8 home teams won, though 2 went to PKs. So we have a ton of road teams, now at home in Game 2 that need to go for it. I’m thinking that will give some of these games the push they’ll need to force these home teams to attack and hopefully open up the scoring.
NYCFC vs Charlotte FC Prediction
Game 1 was a tight match which saw Alonso Martinez’s 34’ goal stand up as the only score in a 1-0 NYC win. NYC have a huge advantage taking Game 1 on the road and now travelling back to New York looking to close out the series. They had an advantage in Game 1 with Charlotte missing key players like Biel (injury) and Zaha (suspension). Zaha will return though in Game 2.
NYCFC were the only road team to win in Game 1??? And that could bode well for them to advance. Since 2023 when the current playoff format began, 3 road teams have won Game 1 and all 3 went on to win the series 2-0.
Despite the loss, Charlotte has wins 8 of their last 11. Oddly, the two losses came to weaker sides in Montreal and DC, before losing in Game 1.
New York had lost 3/4 before winning in Game 1. NY has scored just 5 goals in 5 games and have 2 clean sheets in 9, but both have come vs this Charlotte team.
These teams aren’t known for drawing. At home, New York is 11-0-6, meanwhile on the road, Charlotte is 6-1-10. And now with scores of 2-0, 2-0 and 1-0 between them in 2025, it could shape up as another tight, low-scoring game.
- MLS Picks Today: NYCFC moneyline (-138)
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
Zinckernagel left injured early in Game 1 for Chicago. The game looked destined for a low-scoring game and a 0-0 game that was going to PKs. That was until, a goal explosion in the final 20 minutes. Philly scored in the 70’ and 75’ and the win looked in the bag. But the Fire scored in the 84’ and 93’ to send the game to PKs but in a 2-2 draw that Philly went on to win 4-2. Chicago’s Sergio Oregel got sent off at the end so will miss out now.
The Fire did create plenty of chances and led in xG 1.78 to 1.09. Philly though have still not lost at home to Chicago since 2013. And this season, Philly have won 5-0, 1-0 and then in PKs after the 2-2 draw.
The Union have now conceded 2 goals in back-to-back games, but have clean sheets in 5/9. They still had the best defense in MLS this season.
But only the 4.0 GPG in Miami games was more than the 3.8 in Chicago games this year.
Chicago, despite the PK loss, have now not lost in regulation in 7, they’ve scored multiple goals in all of those 7 games and outscored opponents 19-10. But BTTS & Over 2.5 is 5-0, so they’ve also been conceding. Go further back and they’ve only lost twice in regulation in 15 games. They’ve only failed to score once in 19. games.
Chicago has not been a good home team, being just 6-6-5, scoring 25 and allowing 25. They need to win here, and if Philly get on the board, this could turn into an open game where Chicago needs to attack.
- MLS Picks Today: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-141)
Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF Prediction
The first game of the playoffs went like they usually do between Nashville and Miami. It was another Miami win and another high-scoring game, a 3-1 Miami win. But, Nashville only got on the board off a free kick in the 102’ minute from Hany Mukhtar. Messi had 2 goals and Allende the other. Messi also assisted on that goal.
In his last 4 games Messi has 7G/6A. He’s had a shot on target in 13 straight and recently shot on target totals of 4, 5, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3 and 2.
Miami is now undefeated in 11 vs Nashville. They also won twice this year in the regular season (including Decision Day) and past scores in this time are now 3-1, 5-2, 2-1, 3-1, 3-1, 2-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1. The BTTS & Over 2.5 prop has cashed in 11/13. BTTS is 12-1.
The Herons look to be peaking at a good time being 7-1-1 in 8 and having wins of 4-1, 4-0 5-2 and 3-1 in their last 4.
Nashville is now winless in 3 with only 3 wins in 9, but their games too have been filled with goals. BTTS is 11-1 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 10-2 in recent Nashville games.
There’s been 3+ goals in 17/19 recent Miami games and the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 13-6 in that time. They have just 2 clean sheets in 19.
With Surridge and Mukhtar the Yotes usually always score. Surridge’s 24 goals were tied with Bouanga and only behind Messi. Mukhtar also had 16. Surridge has goals in 4/5 and 1+ shot on target in 14/16, just barely missing last week as he hit the crossbar in the final moments. Mukhtar has goals in 4/6 and a shot on target in 4/6 as well.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS & Over 2.5 + Messi goal or assist (-125)
FC Dallas vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction
Vancouver absolutely dominated in Game 1. The scoreline of 3-0 only tells half the story. Dig deeper and the Caps led in possession 62%, shots 22-0, shots on target 10-0, corners 10-1 and xG 4.34 to 0.00! Vancouver got goals from Daniel Rios, a PK from Thomas Muller and a third goal from Kenji Cabrera.
It was quick revenge for a Decision Day 2-1 loss that saw them play a man down and lose out on finishing top of the West. That’s Vancouver’s only loss in 10 games and just their second in 14. They’ve scored multiple goals in 7/9, but have only kept the ball out of their net once (last game) in their past 6.
Muller’s PK goal gives him goals in 5 straight and 9G/3A in his brief time in Vancouver. He’s instantly fit in and is a great player prop option. He also has 11 shots on target in his last 5 games.
Getting shut out last game was the first time Dallas didn’t score in 13, while they too had been scoring 2s and 3s often, with multiple goals scored in 6 straight prior to Game 1. In a similar story, their defense hasn’t been great conceding in 6 straight and 8/10.
Dallas weren’t a top home team this year at 6-3-8 scoring and conceding 25. The Caps were one of the best road teams at 8-5-4 and outscoring opponents 24-18.
- MLS Picks Today: Both Teams to Score + Muller 1+ shot on target (-105)
Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC Prediction
Game 1 saw all of the goals come in the first half and then scoring stopped. San Diego led 2-0 with goals from Valakari and Dreyer, Velde pulled one back for Portland soon after but that was it, a 2-1 San Diego win. The Timbers saw red in the 66’ with Fory getting sent off which didn’t help in their comeback attempt. What’s even more impressive is San Diego did it without Lozano, held out of the team for disciplinary issues. His status is questionable, but it seems likely he’ll return.
When looking at props, Dreyer has scored 5 goals in 3 MLS games and another 2 with Denmark For shots, he has at least 1 in 7 straight and 11/12.
On the Portland side, summer signing Kristoffer Velde has been a good shot prop target with 1+ in 9 straight, (14 total). Felipe Mora only has 2 goals in in 14 games, but for shots, he has at least 1 in 5 straight.
San Diego won’t be afraid on going on the road as they’re actually better on the road (37 pts) than they are at home (26 pts). In fact, their 12-1-4 road record is tops in MLS.
San Diego has been a little off in recent weeks with only 4 wins in 8, but they’ve also only lost twice in 11 games and ended the year with 4-2 and 4-0 wins. Only twice in 15 have San Diego not scored, but they’ve conceded in 6/7.
And that 4-0 Decision Day win came against this Portland team.
Portland’s Wild Card Round win is their only win in 7 games, and second in 13.
San Diego road games average 3.7 GPG, the most in the West while Portland’s home games average far more at home than the road, at 3.0.
- MLS Picks Today: Over 2.5 and Anders Dreyer goal or assist (-125)
Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Prediction
Cincinnati were the clear favourites in Game 1 at home, but like most of their games this season, it was tight. Despite a ton of chances, they couldn’t break through until Kevin Denkey’s 78’ minute goal which got them a 1-0 win. It was the 17th win out of 21 this season that came by just 1 goal.
In Denkey’s last 4 games he has an A, G, G, and G and shots on target totals in his last 6 of 1, 2, 2, 3, 1 and 2.
The form guide is clearly in Cincinnati favour. After Game 1, Cincy has won 3 straight and all in shutout, 1-0, 3-0 and 1-0. They’re also 5-1-0 in 6, only giving up 4 total goals.
Columbus only has 2 wins in 10 and both vs non-playoff teams (NYRB and ATL). A 3-1 win over the Bulls is the only time they’ve scored multiple goals in 5 games. Scoring has been an issue with Wessam About Ali and Diego Rossi injured. But, Rossi returned last game and played 75 minutes, but had no shots.
It’s another game where the home team needs to come out and attack. But Columbus may not have the offense here. And Cincy rarely win big and this was close to 0-0 last game.
- MLS Picks Today: Under 3.5 (-145) OR add Denkey 1+ shot on target (+170), sot and Under 4.5 (+100)
Austin FC vs LAFC Prediction
Austin will return home in need of a win after losing in LA in Game 1. LA got the winner without goals from Bouanga and Son which is rare, scoring off an own goal and getting the winner from Nathan Ordaz in a 2-1 win. John Gallagher had the goal for Austin.
Prior to Game 1, Austin had won the two previous meetings this year by 1-0 scores. Considering past meetings were 1-1, 2-0 LA and 1-1, this is typically a close matchup.
LAFC has been red-hot to end the year and their only loss in 9 games came to this Austin team when Boulanger and Son were away on international duty. Otherwise, they’re now 7-1-1 in 9 with only 2 losses in 16. LA have also scored 2+ goals in 7/9.
Austin can’t say the same about their form as they’ve dipped at the wrong time. The LAFC win is their only win in 6 games. Obviously, with 5 losses in that time, they’ve been conceding, and have given up multiple goals in 5/6 and at least 1 in 15/16. But by scoring in 15/16 too, BTTS bets are 14-2 and BTTS & Over 2.5 is 13-3 in that time.
I’m always going to expect LAFC to score, but Austin are at home and need to attack and they could find the scoresheet too.
- MLS Picks Today: BTTS and Bouanga goal or assist (+105)
Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United Prediction
This matchup always looked hard to split to me in Game 1. I liked a draw and that’s exactly what we got. Minnesota played like they always do, being hard to break down and rarely scoring from the run of play. That was again the formula. They only allowed 4 shots on target, had none of their own and only 35% possession and the game ended scoreless. Dayne St. Clair came up clutch in PKs and Minnesota took Game 1 in penalties 3-2.
The Loons have had the Sounders number this year with regular season wins of 3-2 and 1-0 so are undefeated in 3.
Minnesota’s only win in their last 5 games of the regular season came against the 28th-ranked team SKC. Then they lost to the team just above SKC, the LA Galaxy, 2-1 on Decision Day. Minnesota has clean sheets in 2/3 now but only 2 in their last 9. Offensively, just twice in 11 games have they not found the back of the net.
Let’s switch to Seattle, who were scorching hot all the way through Leagues Cup and eventually won the title. They then went winless in 4 games, but to end the year had wins of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. They had scored in 10 straight before ending 0-0 in Game 1. They’re also undefeated in regulation in 5 games.
I’d think this one will be close like Game 1. Under 2.5 is 3-1 in recent Seattle games and 2-2 in recent Minnesota games. As a parlay piece, Under 3.5 (-200) looks even safer. It’s 6-0 for Minnesota and 5-1 for Seattle of late.
- MLS Picks Today: Draw (+333) or Under 2.5 (+130)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
