Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Round of 16 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for today’s game between Mali vs Tunisia.
This games kicks off on Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 2pm EST in Casablanca, Morocco.
Mali were 2nd in Group A at 0-3-0, scoring and conceding 2 goals each.
Tunisia were 2nd in Group C at 1-1-1, scoring 6 and allowing 5.
AFCON Odds and Picks
Here are today’s odds for the Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16.
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mali | +200 |
| Draw | +180 |
| Tunisia | +180 |
| Mali to advance | -106 |
| Tunisia to advance | -125 |
| BTTS Yes / No | +120 / -163 |
| Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 | +187 / -250 |
Mali vs Tunisia Preview
Mali (Les Aigles)
54th in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they drew Zambia 1-1, being moments away from the win before Zambia scored in stoppage time. They drew again on MD2, 1-1 against Morocco with both teams only scoring on PKs.
And it was a third draw, 0-0, on MD3 vs Comoros, despite holding Comoros to just 1 shot on target and having 68% possession. Sinayoko scored vs Zambia and then again via PK vs Morocco but couldn’t score for a third time vs Comoros. They suffered a blow that will come back to haunt them this game with midfielder Haidara being shown red. The decision has been appealed though.
The BTTS bet rarely hits in Mali games outside of their first two group stage games, with the BTTS NO being 13-3. Under 2.5 is 8-2 and oddly despite lower-scoring games they’ve only drawn 4/13, but they’ve also drawn each of their past 4 now.
In all comps they come into this game with decent form at 3-4-1.
Tunisia (Eagles of Carthage)
40th in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they ran out to a 3-0 lead over Uganda with goals from Skhiri and Achouri (2), and only conceded once in stoppage time to win 3-1. They led in shots 16-6 and shots on target 8-1.
Matchday 2 saw them give up 3 goals, and the first 3 goals in a game to Nigeria where they were down 3-0, but fought back with 2 late goals to make things interesting but ultimately lost 3-2, with the 2 goals being their only 2 shots on target.
Next up they met Tanzania on MD3. They scored first with a PK in the 43′, but then saw Tanzania tie it up immediately in the 48′. The game ended 1-1 with both only having 2 shots on target.
But they have only 2 defeats across their last 11 matches, to go with only 4 losses in 14. They’ve also scored in 10/11. The Over/Under has gone 5-4 to Over 2.5 totals of late.
While they shut out all opponents in WCQ, recently, across all comps, they have only 1 clean sheet in 9, making BTTS bets 7-2, including all 3 games so far at AFCON.
Mali vs Tunisia Head-to-Head
Tunisia owns the all-time edge at 7-3-5. In the 2024 AFCON they drew 1-1 in the most recent meeting. The last 2 games have both been draws (0-0) and the Under 2.5 is 6-0 with just 7 goals scored in those 6 games.
AFCON Prediction
The BTTS has hit in 3/3 Tunisia games and 2/3 Mali games and when these teams meet up the margins have historically been razor-thin. There’s also only been 1 win in 6 games combined for these team in the Group Stage. Furthermore, despite moving on, they’re both in the bottom half of shots on target with Mail only having 8 and Tunisia 10. Defensively, they’re both in the top 10 for shots on target allowed, with Mali only allowing 7 and Tunisia 8.
I see a tight game where the BTTS (maybe 1-1) or the draw is in play.
- AFCON Picks: Draw (+180)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
