Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Round of 16 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for today’s game between Mali vs Senegal on Friday, January 9, 2026 at 11am EST.
AFCON Odds and Picks
Here are today’s odds for the Africa Cup of Nations Quarterfinals.
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mali | +550 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Senegal | -163 |
| Mail to advance | +275 |
| Senegal to advance | -400 |
| BTTS Yes / No | +137 / -188 |
| Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 | +140 / -188 |
Mali vs Senegal Preview
Mali (Les Aigles)
54th in FIFA Rankings.
They were 2nd in Group A, but didn’t win any games at 0-3-0, scoring 2, and allowing 2.
On Matchday 1 they drew Zambia 1-1, being moments away from the win before Zambia scored in stoppage time.
They drew again on MD2, 1-1 against Morocco with both teams only scoring on PKs.
And it was a third draw, 0-0, on MD3 vs Comoros, despite holding Comoros to just 1 shot on target and having 68% possession.
So it was onto the Round of 16, where despite all odds, they drew again, and went on to win in PKs vs Tunisia. After Coulibaly saw red in the 26′ it looked all but over. But they held on almost til the end, finally conceding in the 88′. With just moments left, they were awarded a PK deep into stoppage time and Sinayoko stepped up and scored his 3rd of the tournament. With nothing solved in extra-time, they went on to win 3-2 in PKs to advance. Not only is Woyo Coulibaly suspended, but Lassana Coulibaly also went off injured so they have some missing pieces.
So in 4 games, they have 3 total goals, 2 are from PKs and only 2 were in regulation time. But you can say the same on the defensive side, giving up only 3, 1 being a PK and 2 coming very late in games. Offensively, they’re bottom 10 in shots on target with only 9, but top 10 defensively allowing only 11.
Despite the string of recent 1-1 scores, the BTTS bet rarely hits in previous Mali games, with the BTTS NO being 13-4. Under 2.5 is 9-2 and they’ve also drawn each of their past 5 now.
In all comps they come into this game with decent form at 3-5-1 in regulation.
Senegal (The Lions of Teranga)
19th in FIFA Rankings.
They won Group D at 2-1-0, scoring 7, and allowing just 1.
Their first game was a blowout vs Botswana winning 3-0, with 2 goals from Jackson and another from Ndiaye.
Next up was DR Congo in a much closer game with DRC scoring first in the 61′ minute, but Mane levelling them minutes later in the 69′ for a 1-1 draw.
Their final match was another blowout vs Benin. It was close for a while, but then Senegal broke out scoring in the 38′, added a second in the 62′ and then a third in the 97′ by PK.
In the Round of 16 they were big favorites overs Sudan, but had a bit of a scare early when Sudan scored just 6 minutes in. But Gueye scored twice in the first half and Mbaye again in the 77′ and Senegal won 3-1. At 17, Mbaye became the youngest player to ever score at AFCON.
Through the Group Stage, Senegal put the most shots on target with 26 in the 3 games. Sadio Mane led all player with 7 shots on target, on 11 attempts. After the Round of 16 they still lead with 35 shots on target.
In all matches, Senegal have won 8/10 and 6/8 wins have all come by shut out, and in their last 10 games they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 32-6. They’ve also only lost 1 time in regulation in 40 overall matches (Brazil 2-0 in November) going all the way back to September 2023 which was another friendly. In that time only 4 games ended drawn. It’s been 50 games since their last competitive loss, 1-0 to Uganda in January 2023 in the group stage of the African Nations Championship.
Mail vs Senegal Head-to-Head
Senegal owns a 19-14-9 all-time record vs this opponent and hasn’t lost in 13 games going back to 1997. But the last 3 have all been friendlies in 2019, 2014 and 2007 (2-1, 1-1, 3-2).
AFCON Prediction
Mali have been solid but unspectacular. They’re hard to break down but don’t offer much offensively. They could also be tired from playing down a man and going all through extra-time and PKs last round.
A straight moneyline win looks the simplest way to attack this for Senegal at (-163). Given the defensively solidity of both sides, combining an under will improve the price.
- AFCON Picks: Senegal moneyline & under 3.5 (+100)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
