We’re into the Leagues Cup Semifinals and the final four are all from MLS, with each of Miami, Orlando, LA and Seattle knocking out their Mexican opponents in the quarterfinals. It’s been a fun tournament so let’s cover each of Wednesday’s semis as we edge closer to the final.
Inter Miami vs Orlando City Prediction
Miami’s LC games: 2nd in Group A, 2-1-0
- 2-1 win over Atlas
- 2-2 draw with Necaxa, then PK win
- 3-1 win over Pumas
- In the QFs a 2-1 win over Tigres
Last week it was no Messi, no problem, as 2 Luis Suarez PK goals proved to be enough to beat Mexican juggernauts Tigres. Still, Miami put only 4 shots on target (2 PKs) and it was 1-1 until the 89’ minute.
This weekend Miami heavily rotated their lineup and went to DC and drew 1-1. DC scored early and Baltasar Rodriguez drew Miami level in the 64’.
The BTTS bet is now recently 20-5 across their past 25 overall matches. The BTTS & Over 2.5 is 10-3. Miami has just 2 clean sheets in their past 25 overall matches as well.
Orlando’s LC games: 4th in Group A
- 1-1 draw with Pumas and PK loss
- 3-1 win over Atlas
- 5-1 win over Necaxa
- In the QFs a 0-0 draw and PK win over Toluca
The nil-nil with Toluca was a very rare low-scoring game for both teams. In fact, both only put 1 shot on target.
Back in MLS this weekend, Orlando rotated with this game in mind, and suffered their first loss in any match after 8 games undefeated. It was a heavy defeat too, away in Nashville, losing 5-1.
Orlando, usually plays in high-scoring games. BTTS bets are now 13-1 and 15-2. The BTTS & Over is 11-3. Prior to the Toluca game, they had 4 wins of 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 and 3-1.
DP, Ojeda’s streak of 15 games with a goal or assist came to an end vs Toluca, but against a leaky Miami defense, he’d certainly be a good player prop bet, as he has 3G/3A in the tournament. Another DP, Muriel, got Orlando’s only goal this weekend. But he then got a silly red card minutes later.
Picks
- To qualify odds:
- MIA: -200
- ORL: +150
Orlando has owned Miami this season winning 3-0 in May and more recently 4-1 on August 10. In that game, all of the Lions’ DPs got on the scoresheet with Muriel scoring twice, and Ojeda and Pasalic each getting 1. Orlando led in shots 21-10 and shots on target 12-5.
Given their dominance and the better health of their main players (Messi and Alba could miss out or be limited with injuries), certainly making a case for an Orlando win is not a bad bet. It is in Miami and certainly Messi is the x-factor. It’s safer to bet on goals.
BTTS is -225, BTTS & Over 2.5 is -150. You could add Suarez to have a shot on target (-105) or one of Orlando’s top guys to get that price better. Suarez is 3rd in LC shots with 7.
- Leagues Cup Picks: BTTS & Over 2.5 & Suarez 1+ shot on target (-105)
LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders Prediction
LA’s LC games: 3rd in Group A, 2-1-0
- 5-2 win over Tijuana
- 1-1 draw with Cruz Azul and PK loss
- 4-0 win over Santos Laguna
- In the QFs won 2-1 over Pachuca
An own goal in the 27’ and a Reus goal soon after, proved enough for LA to get past Pachuca last round. Pachuca’s only goal was in the 96’, but LA also had only 2 shots on target and were outshot 18-5 and 5-2.
Back in MLS this weekend, LA’s stars started on the bench but came on later. They won 3-0 over Colorado and held the Rapids to just 1 shot on target.
LA are 7-3-5 in their last 15 and in all comps they’ve scored in 16/19 and scored multiple goals in 7/11. But defense is always a concern having conceded in 27/31 games this season.
Pec had a streak of 14 straight games with a shot on target end though vs Pachuca. Painstil’s streak of 9 games with a shot on target also ended.
Seattle’s LC games: 1st in Group A, and the only 3-0-0 team
- 7-0 win over Cruz Azul
- 2-1 wn over Santos Laguna
- 2-1 win over Club Tijuana
- In the QFs a 0-0 draw and PK win over Puebla.
I took Seattle to advance over Puebla, but I thought it would be easier than a PK win. However, they did dominate. They had 80% possession and led in shots 11-5. They held Puebla to only 2 shots on target. But … they only put 1 shot on target themselves all game. Musovski also took a silly red so will miss the semis.
Seattle’s offense was firing on all cylinders this weekend though, as they dropped 5 on SKC and won 5-2. Musovski had a hat-trick, so obviously his offense will be missed this game as the team’s top scorer. They’re also likely still out second-leading scorer Albert Rusnak.
Since going out of the CWC vs PSG, the Sounders have been near perfect at 8-4-1. In 10 of those 13, they’ve scored mutltiple goals, but they have only 4 clean sheets in that time.
Picks
- To qualify odds:
- LA: +105
- SEA: -143
We don’t have to look to far to find the last meeting between these teams. They literally just met on August 10, and it was a dominant win by Seattle, routing LA 4-0 behind an own goal, 2 from Musovski and 1 from Brunell. Seattle outshot LA 23-8 and 8-3. LA did knock Seattle out of the playoffs last year though.
Seattle have to be favored and they are at +130. But it is in LA, and surely LA will put up a better showing than the 4-0 loss they just suffered.
At this stage, you’d expect some tighter games with the final 1 game away. But it’s hard to see LA shutting out Seattle. With the talent LA have, I also think they should get on the scoresheet too. BTTS is -163, the BTTS & Over 2.5 is +105.
- Leagues Cup Picks: BTTS and Painstil 1+ shot on target (+100). He has the most LC shots on target in the tournament with 11. OR LA to advance (+105)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
