Europa League Picks Today – Knockout Round (Feb 13)

The Europa League has reached the Knockout Round Playoffs with Leg 1 between the 16 teams being played on Thursday, February 13, 2025. Let’s get into this week’s Europa League predictions, picks and parlays.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Ajax Prediction

USG were 21st at 3-2-3 with 11 points and played to rather low-scoring games only scoring and allowing 8 goals. 

Ajax missed out on the top 8 and came 12th, 4-1-3 with 13 points, 1 point off the 14 that Rangers had in 8th. Ajax were one of the highest scorers with 16 goals while giving up 8.

USG have risen to 3rd in Belgium and their 21 goals allowed is the best in the Jupiler League. USG’s only 2 losses across 21 matches have come in the UEL vs Rangers and Anterwerp in the Cup and both on the road. Only once in those 21 games have they not scored. 

But they’ll have a tough test vs Ajax who are 1st in the Netherlands and just won 2-0 this week. That was 1-0 though until a late stoppage time goal on a counter with Sittard pushing to level. Ajax have won 3 straight and are 8-1-2 in 11 and have scored multiple goals in 9/11. They came out on top of a tough opponent on Matchday 8 beating  Galatasaray 2-1 and it was 2-0 until a late Gala goal. They’ve been dealt a big blow though with leading scoring Wout Weghorst ruled out for many weeks with a toe injury suffered this weekend.

I like the Draw (+240) or Under 2.5 (+105).

• Europa League Predictions: Under 2.5 (+105)

Midtjylland vs Real Sociedad Prediction

20th Midtjylland was 3-2-3 and scored 9 and allowed 9 and will host 13th Real Sociedad, 4-1-3 scoring 13 and allowing 9 and who saw 2+ goals in all 8 games.

Midtjylland are tied in 1st in Denmark with Copenhagen. They’ve only played 2 games in 2025 still being on break and both in the UEL, a 2-0 win over Ludogorets and a 2-2 draw with Fenerbahce. Look at all matches and they’re a mediocre 3-1-6 in their past 10 though. 

Sociedad have been struggling and were 11th heading into this weekend in La Liga but got a win and moved up to 7th. Their games are all tight with just 20 goals scored and 20 allowed in 23 games. Overall, while it’s only 3 wins in 7, it’s also 3 wins in 4 where they’ve scored in all 4, twice 3 times and kept 2 clean sheets. 

Midtjylland only won 1/4 home games in the League Phase so don’t own a big home-field advantage. I could see a Draw (+230), the Under (-130) or a tight Sociedad win. Perhaps the Sociedad double chance and Under 3.5 combo could be an alternative way to look in an SGP (+110).

• Europa League Predictions: Under 2.5 (-130)

Ferencvaros vs Viktoria Plzen Prediction

17th Ferencvaros is 4-0-4 and played in a bunch of high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 GPG and going 6-2 to Over 2.5.

Plzen’s games also saw over 3 GPG at 3.1 and they were also 6-2 to the Over. They were 16th at 3-3-2, so these teams were side-by-side in the table with 12 points each.

Ferencvaros met fellow title contender Puskas in Hungary on Sunday and lost 1-0 slipping to 2nd. They’ve been exceptionally strong at home in their league being 6-3-0.

Plzen likely won’t win the Czech title being 10 points back but are still 2nd at 14-4-3. They won 3-2 this weekend which stopped a 2-game losing run of 3-1 and 2-1 but they’ve lost just 4 times across 21 overall matches and have scored in 13 straight and 19/21. 

Both teams saw 2+ goals in 7/8 games and I can see that happening again. Let’s back the BTTS at -120 in leg 1 of two-leg parlay.

• Europa League Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-120)

Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht Prediction

Claiming the final spot Fenerbahce was 24th at 2-4-2 and will host 10th Anderlecht 4-2-2. Anderlecht just missed out on the top 8 and saw some high—scoring games at 3.3. All 8 of their games saw 2+ goals and they both scored and conceded in 7/8.

Fenerbahce are right in the title race in the Turkish Super Lig at 2nd. They’ve piled up the goals with 57, the most in the league, even above Galatasaray. Look at all matches and they’re undefeated in 12 with multiple goals scored in 10/12 and only 2 losses in 19. In their 8 UEL games they scored in 6/8 but also conceded in 7/8.

Anderlecht topped Antwerp 2-0 this weekend and are 4th in Belgium. That’s their only win though in 4 games and their only clean sheet in 6 games. Their final 2 UEL games saw them lose 2-0 to Plzen and 4-3 to Hoffenheim. 

Anderlecht are out defender Jan Vertonghen but then Fener are out several defenders and their keeper. But have also added a ton of signings in the January transfer window. I can see a Fenerbahce win, the BTTS or at at least just 2+ goals to include in this parlay.

• Europa League Predictions: Over 1.5
• Parlay Picks: Ferencvaros vs Plzen both to score / Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht over 1.5 (+120)

PAOK vs FCSB Prediction

PAOK were 3-1-4 and 20th and 7/8 games saw 2+ goals but only 3/8 saw 3+. While FCSB were 11th at 4-2-2, also with only 3/8 going Under 2.5, but 5/8 going Over 1.5.

PAOK are 4th in Greece. They won 5-0 this weekend but have only won 3 of their past 9 games.

FCSB are 2nd, but tied in 1st in Romania. In all matches they have lost just 1/8 and 4/32.

I can see this being close so would lean to the Draw (+260) or Under (-125).

• Europa League Predictions: Under 2.5 (-125)

Porto vs Roma Prediction

18th Porto 3-2–3 got in on the final day with 11 points and hosts 15th Roma, 3-3-2, 12 points. The 6 goals allowed by Roma were the 3rd fewest. 

Porto are 3rd in Portugal but have been on a slide being 1-3-0 in 4 with just that lone win in 8 games. The win, 1-0 over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEL is also the only time they’ve kept a clean sheet in those 8 games.

Roma are 9th in Italy. They lost in the Coppa Italia last week and won in the league this weekend. Only 3 times in 15 have they been defeated and only twice in those 15 games have they not scored. Roma’s road form is abysmal, though, despite winning 2/3 recent road games (one vs Venezia) they’re 2-8-7 on the road in all comps this season. 

Roms is in better form so could win but an away draw also wouldn’t be bad for them. 

• Europa League Predictions: Draw (+230)

AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasaray Prediction

19th AZ hosts 14th Galatasaray. Both saw high-scoring games, with AZ scoring and allowing 13 and Gala being the highest scorers with 19 but then also giving up 16 which was the 5th most among all 36 teams. Gala’s games saw the most goals at 4.4 and they were 7-1 to Over 2.5 totals.

AZ are 4th in the Netherlands. On Sunday they won 2-0. Overall they’ve been in solid form with only 2 losses in 17 games. Only one time in 21 games have they not scored.

Galatasaray are 1st in Turkey at 18–3-0 and had their game called off mid—way this weekend. New signing Alvaro Morata scored a PK and soon after in protest of the decision the Adana Demirspor team walked off the pitch and the game was abandoned. On Monday their club President Bedirhan Burak also resigned. 

Not counting the abandoned game Gala’s only loss in 29 games was their last UEL game vs Ajax 2-1. They’ve scored in all 29 of those games. They’ve also conceded in 13/15.

Gala are out some big names due to suspension in Davinson Sanchez, Lucas Torreira and Victor Osimhen being the biggest but new signing Morata has already scored and will likely lead the line.

It was 1-1 on Matchday 5 when they recently met with both putting 5 shots on target and I see goals from both again. Let’s bet on goals from both for leg 1 of a two-leg parlay.

• Europa League Predictions: Both Teams to Score

Twente vs Bodo-Glimt Prediction

23rd Twente finished at 2-4-2 with 10 points just barely qualifying and will host Bodo who just barely missed out on the top 8, finishing 9th at 4-2-2 with 14 points, being seeded 9th vs 8th to Rangers based on goal-differentials of +6 to +3. 

Twente played out an entertaining match with Heerenveen this weekend in a 3-3 draw. They’re 6th in the Eredivisie and current form sees them undefeated in 4 gamed with 2 wins and 2 draws. Recent scorelines are 3-3, 2-2, 1-0 win, 3-2 win, 2-1 loss, 3-1 loss and 6-2 win, so the BTTS & Over is 6-1.

Bodo/Glimt won the Norway title on December 1 so have been quiet in the offseason just playing in Europa and a few friendlies. They have a 2-1 win, 3-1 win and 1-1 draw in those 3 UEL games since lifting their domestic title. Their a more dangerous home team, but are rested and scored in 7/8 UEL games, but then also conceded in 7/8.

• Europa League Predictions: Both Teams to Score
• Parlay Picks: AZ vs Galatasaray both to score / Twente vs Bodo/Glimt both to score (+112)

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