The final 16 teams meet in the Europa League Round of 16 on Thursday, March 12. We have 4 games in an early slot and 4 in the late slot. Let’s create 1 best bet parlay for each time slot in today’s Europa League picks.
UEL Picks #1
Early games.
Bologna vs Roma Prediction
Both teams were strong defensively in the LP giving up 7 goals (BOL) and 6 (ROM).
Bologna needed the playoff to get here where they beat Brann 1-0 in both leg. That was oddly pat of a streak of 4 straight 1-0 wins, and 5 straight wins, before they lost 2-1 to Verona this weekend; the only time they’ve given up multiple goals in 8 games. The Under 2.5 is 6-2 in that time.
Roma’s form is all over the place right now being 2-4-2 in their last 8. They too lost 2-1 this weekend but have scored in 12/13. But are also out one of their best attackers in the injured Dybala.
It was 1-0 Roma earlier this season in Serie A and I can see another low-scoring game. Bologna have scored more than 1 goal just once in 9 games.
- UEL Picks: Under 3.5
Stuttgart vs Porto Prediction
4th in Germany hosts 1st in Portugal Porto.
Stuttgart were 5-0-3 in the LP but all 3 losses were on the road. At home it was all wins and multi-goal games. That trend reversed in the playoff round where they won 4-1 away to Celtic and then lost 1-0 at home, though they didn’t need the win after a big Leg 1 victory. Since then, they’ve won 4-0 and tied 2-2 in the Bundesliga and the Celtic loss is the only time they’ve not scored in 11 games. It’s also multiple goals scored in 5/6, while they’ve conceded in 6/7.
Porto have only given up 10 goals in the league, but drew Benfica 2-2 this weekend and have conceded in 5/7. But it’s just 2 losses in any competition all season. Not since October 23 have they failed to score, a run of 22 games. They were one of the best LP teams at 5th but have lost their last 3 road UEL games. A big miss up top is leading scorer Samu who’s done for the year with an injury.
- UEL Picks: Both Teams to Score
Panathinaikos vs Real Betis Prediction
Real Betis may be favored away here in Greece but they’re not in good form with 1-1 and 2-2 draws and a 2-0 loss this weekend. Betis has conceded in 9/10 games and in each of their last 4 UEL games. Only 3 times in 16 have they not scored.
You could’ve made a fortune betting draws on Panathinaikos this tournament. They were 4-6-2 through the UEL qualifying and LP games. They drew Plzen twice in the playoff round before winning in PKs, so have now drawn 5 straight games in the tournament 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 2-2 and 1-1. On top of a few injuries they have several suspensions in Bakasetas, Touba and Hernandez. Bakasetas is tied for the team lead with 5 goals in Greece.
Since the playoff round, they’ve won 3-1, 4-1 and 4-1 in Greece and in all comps haven’t lost in 12 games, while scoring in 10 straight (22 total).
With so many draws it’s certainly not the worst bet to make here. At home, I’ll just ask the Greeks to score in this parlay. They’ve not exactly used home field to their advantage being just 1-3-1. But then Betis has already lost away in Greece this tournament, 2-0 to PAOK.
- UEL Picks: Panathinaikos to score
- Parlay Picks: BOL vs ROM under 3.5 / STU vs POR btts / PAN to score (+197)
UEL Picks #2
Late games.
Celta Vigo vs Lyon Prediction
Lyon finished top of the pack in 1st at 7-0-1 and with the best goal difference scoring 18, allowing 5. However, in their one match vs Spanish opponents, they lost 2-0 away to Betis.
A few weeks ago Lyon was one the of the hottest teams in Europe winning 13 in all comps. But recently they lost 3-1 and 3-2 in Ligue 1, drew 2-2 and lost in PKs in the Coupe de France and then drew 1-1 this weekend again in Ligue 1. Sometimes after a long winning streak, when it finally snaps, a teams falls off a bit. Still, Lyon have found the back of the net in 17 straight games.
Celta Vigo scoring is also a good bet. It’s something they’ve done in 7/7 and 13/14 overall games. It’s also something they did in 10/10 UEL games, however BTTS bets went 8-2. Hosting a French team will be nothing new for Celta, having already beaten both Nice and Lille 2-1 this tournament.
After 4 straight wins, they were tied 1-1 with Real Madrid last week before conceding late and losing 2-1. Still, it’s been a solid season Spain so far.
- UEL Picks: Both Teams to Score
Nottingham Forest vs Midtjylland Prediction
Forest may be big odds-on favourites here but it was Danish side Midtjylland that progressed easily in the top 8 at 6-1-1 to finish 3. No one scored more than their 18 GF. The Danes have also already beaten Forest 3-2 in England in the LP.
Forest were 13th at 4-2-2. That sent them to the playoff vs Fenerbahce where they won 3-0 and lost 2-1. Since the Leg 1 win they’re 0-1-3 but have played Liverpool, Brighton, Man City and Fenerbahce in a game they didn’t need to win. Drawing Man City 2-2 last weekend is a solid result. But it’s hard to trust a team with 4 wins across 18 matches and who could be more focused on avoiding relegation in the EPL.
Midtjylland are 2nd in Denmark. They only drew 0-0 in their last league game and then drew 1-1 this weekend, but that was enough to advance to the Danish Cup final. They’re undefeated in 10 overall games and had scored in 21 straight games prior to that 0-0, including goal totals of 4, 4, 2, 2, and 3 in other recent games. But, they have a key absentee in top scorer Franculino Dju who has 21 overall goals.
7/8 Midtjylland UEL games saw 2+ goals and 13/14 as well when you count the qualifying rounds. While 8/10 Forest games also saw 2+.
- UEL Picks: Over 1.5
We could leave the parlay at that or add something from this game too.
Ferencvarosi vs Braga Prediction
Ferencvarosi still haven’t lost at home in Europa so far and they’ve scored in all home games, while only failing to score home or away once. The BTTS has hit in 7/10 overall UEL games. Last round they lost 2-0 and won 2-1 vs Ludogorets in the playoffs. Since the Leg 1 loss, they’ve won 4 straight and have scored 3, 2, 2 and 3 goals.
Braga skipped the playoff round having finished 5th at 5-2-1, scoring 11 and allowing just 5 goals. That’s even more impressive considering 4 of those 5 goals came in 1 game. In fact if you count the qualifying rounds for the tournament too, it’s clean sheets in 10/14 and in each of their last 3 vs Nice, Nottingham Forest and Go Ahead Eagles.
In Portugal they’re 4th. Offensively, they’re the 2nd highest scorers. But defensively, they’ve allowed the joint-most goals among the top 6. At 25 in 25 games that is still just 1 GPG.
They drew 2-2 with Benfica this weekend, have scored multiple goals in 5/6, the BTTS & Over 2.5 is 4-0 and they have just 2 losses in any competition in 19 games.
This is tough. Ferencvarosi games usually see BTTS and they are at home, while Braga have shut out most teams in this tournament, but their overall form has seen some BTTS bets lately.
- UEL Picks: Braga to score to Braga double chance to add into the parlay
- Parlay Picks: CV vs LYO btts / NF vs MID over 1.5 (+120)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
