It’s the 17th Euros that kick off on June 14 in Germany with 24 teams looking to be crowned the Kings of Europe. Here, we’ll look at the top 10 teams and make our Euro 2024 predictions for who makes the final and lifts the trophy on July 14.
Euro 2024 Odds
There are 24 teams but you rarely see a massive underdog winning these types of tournaments, with Denmark and Greece really the only ever true longshots winning and some time ago. You’d be hard-pressed to find many people picking someone outside of the top 5 to lift the trophy in their Euro 2024 predictions.
- England (+350)
- France (+400)
- Germany (+550)
- Portugal (+700)
- Spain (+750)
But let’s stretch this out to at least 10 teams and include:
- Italy (+1400)
- Belgium (+1600)
- Netherlands (+1600)
- Croatia (+4000)
- Denmark (+4000)
England (+350)
Favorites England don’t come in on a high note.
They had just 1 shot on target versus Iceland (72nd) at Wembley last week and lost 1-0.
The game doesn’t matter and Jude Bellingham didn’t even play but it’s still concerning for a team that often fails to impress in major tournaments.
Harry Maguire is out, Lewis Dunk missed their last game, Luke Shaw may not recover from a hamstring injury during the EPL in time and John Stones had to be subbed out with an injury, though should be ok. That’s a lot of defensive questions for Gareth Southgate.
But defensive questions aside, England is loaded up top with Bellingham, Harry Kane. Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Ivan Toney, Jarrod Bowen, Ollie Watkins and others.
Only Kylian Mbappe has equalled the 12 goals combined that Kane has over the last 3 big tournaments, World Cup, Euros, World Cup.
Southgate has a worrisome trend to reverse as well this tournament and that is his record vs teams ranked in the top 10 — a poor 7-6-10 (WDL).
Certainly you’d expect England to go far and maybe win, but then again they’ve not won a major tournament since 1966.
France (+400)
Les Bleus haven’t had many slip-ups in the past couple of years. They lost to Tunisia in the Group Stage of the World Cup but it came after winning the first two matches.
It was then a march to the finals where they came up just short to Messi and Argentina in PKs in the final.
Since, in 14 games, it’s been 10 wins, with their only losses coming to Germany in friendlies, 2-1 and 2-0. A 2-2 draw with Greece and 0-0 draw with Canada are their other results.
Didier Deschamps has been in charge of Les Bleus for 6 tournaments and during that time he’s brought them to 2 World Cup Finals (win in 2018) and 1 Euros Final.
Mabppe, Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembele, Aurelian Tchouameni, Adrien Rabiot, Ferland Mendy, Benjamin Pavard and others just to name a few make up a loaded roster filled with players from PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Marseille, Monaco, Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal and other top teams.
Germany (+550)
The home soil certainly gives them an advantage but can you trust a team that couldn’t get out of the Group Stage in the 2022 World Cup and lost in the Round of 16 in the last Euros when putting down your money for this year’s Euro 2024 predictions?
In fact there’s some real bad history with Germany in recent tournaments. The Germans have not won a Knockout Round game at a major competition (WC or Euros) since 2016. It’s also 12 straight games they’ve given up a goal going back to those Euros as well.
They may win their group and could get past a possible matchup with maybe Denmark in the Round of 16 (2nd in Group C). But that still lines up a path that could see them playing Spain, Italy or Croatia in the Quarterfinals and maybe Portugal in the Semis.
This year Qatar won the Asian Cup on home soil and so did Ivory Coast in the AFCON, so it is a factor to consider. Though a home nation hasn’t won the Euros since 1984 with France hosting and beating Spain and a host nation has only ever won 3 times in the history of the tournament.
But in 3 of the past 5 Euros the home nation has made the finals. England hosting and losing to Italy in 2020(21). France hosting and losing to Portugal in 2016 and Portugal hosting and losing to Greece in 2004.
In 2008 Austria hosted and 2012 Ukraine, but it would have been a big upset for those nations to win anyways.
Portugal (+700)
Portugal should coast in their group as they are the only team in Group E to even be ranked in the top 30 in the FIFA Rankings. But their opponents were Slovakia, Luxembourg, Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Liechtenstein in qualifying, so they had an easy qualifying path and to look to have another manageable group here.
They’re in one of the two easiest looking groups and they have one of the best paths to go deep if they win the group.
If they top Group E they’ll play a 3rd place team in the Round of 16 and then play a 2nd place team in the Quarterfinals, meaning they may not play another top team or 1st place team until the Semifinals.
The Portuguese have made the Semifinals in 4/6 recent Euros and that trend is set up nicely to continue here.
There’s the looming question as to how much 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo will play, but he did start 9/10 qualifying games for this nation this term and he was suspended for the one he didn’t. As the all-time Euro scoring leader with 14 goals and having scored in every Euros tournament he’s been in, he certainly has anytime scorer potential in the player props or could maybe even be worth a shot at the Golden Boot if Portugal go far.
Spain (+750)
Spain has lost only two of their last 22 matches at the Euros (W13, D7), but, those two defeats came against Croatia and Italy in the 2016 tournament, teams they’ll play in the Group Stage here.
Still, they’ve reached the knockouts in 6 of the past 7 Euros.
And I expect them to do so again for this year’s Euro 2024 predictions but in what way I’m not sure. They look like the likely 1st place finishers in Group B, but nothing is ever that easy and they have talent, but some young talent, and no stand-out striker.
Any of Spain, Croatia, or Italy could realistically top Group B. For Spain if they win, they could meet Germany and then Portugal in the Quarterfinals and Semis. If they come 2nd, it could be England and France in a potential path through the Quarters and Semis.
This is an odd stat I came across for Spain and it’s that they have not scored a goal in the Euros from outside of the box since Euro 2000, their last 50 goals have been inside the box. I would say this may come from their propensity to build up with the ball and pass around, sometimes maybe too much. Proof of this was making 1,000 passes vs Russia in 2018 and still losing.
However, they did score the 3rd most goals of any team in qualifying, and spread out among 12 different players. There’s tons of talent on this team even without the injured Gavi. Though they could start some teenagers including Barca’s Lamine Yamal who will become the youngest player to ever play in the tournament at 16. Man City’s Rodri is a star who is involved in everything and Alvaro Morata and Joselu led La Roja in qualifying scoring but neither can likely take over a game.
Spain won the 2023 Nation’s League but their last major win was the 2012 Euros. Penalties have been their downfall being knocked out by Russia, Italy and Morocco in their past 3 tournaments all in penalties.
Italy (+1400)
Italy came into the 2020 Euros in amazing form and road that all the way to a semis win over Spain and finals win over England.
They then failed to even qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
They’ll be looking to become just the 2nd ever team to win back-to-back Euros.
On route to winning Euro 2020, Italy went 37 games undefeated. But that streak has ended and they are 15-9-8 since. But … they have only 1 defeat in their last 11 games leading into the Euros (3-1 England) in qualifying.
Luciano Spalletti, the architect of Napoli’s Serie A title last season, gets his first crack at coaching in a major tournament and will be ushering in a new wave of Italian stars, including Gianluca Scamacca, the Atalanta man who scored in each round of the UEL except the final, for a total of 6 goals for the Europa League winners.
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Belgium (+1600)
We’ve been talking about the “Golden Generation” of Belgium football for years. And while they’ve had the talent to make deep runs in multiple tournaments they’ve continually come up short and didn’t even make it out of the Group Stage at the 2022 World Cup.
You’d still expect them to win or at least get out of their group alongside Slovakia, Ukraine and Romania, but the window may have closed on this team.
They did coast in qualifying and Romelu Lukaku did lead all scorers in qualifying with 14 goals in 8 games so has potential in the Golden Boot when considering your Euro 2024 predictions.
Netherlands (+1600)
The Oranje went out in the Quarterfinals to eventual winners Argentina in the World Cup, in PKs after drawing 2-2.
They went out in the Round of 16 in 2020(21) in the Euros losing 2-0 to the Czechs.
Playing in Germany will bring back good memories, as the Dutch won the competition in Germany in 1988. But they missed the Euros in 2016 and haven’t made the Quarters since 2008 and the Semis since 2004.
The Dutch will lean on what looks to be a solid defensive lineup led by Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk. But they have injury-related concerns with Feyenoord’s Justin Bijlow in goal, Barcelona’s Frenkie de Jong in midfield and Atlético Madrid’s Memphis Depay up front, who may not all be ready to start from the get-go.
Netherlands will be expected to come 2nd behind France in Group D, but don’t count out Austria who seem to be everyone’s darkhorse pick.
- Austria (+8000)
Austria has just 1 loss in 16 (3-2 Belgium), has scored in 17 straight games and in their last 5 games have a 2-0 win over Germany, 2-0 win over Slovakia, 6-1 win over Turkey, 2-1 win over Serbia and 1-1 draw with Switzerland, all tournament teams.
Croatia (+4000)
Croatia may be longshots but it was just two years ago they were 3rd at the World Cup in 2022. They were 2nd in 2018 and made the Round of 16 in the 2020 Euros and all under current manager Zlatko Dalić.
But, then they have not made it past the Round of 16 at the Euros since it expanded to 24 teams. Still, this is never a team to underestimate and a 2nd or even 1st place finish in the Group of Death wouldn’t be a massive shock. It’s an aging but experienced roster that still features Luca Modric, Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, Mateo Kovacic and others.
Croatia comes in on a high having just beaten one of the tournament favorites Portugal 2-1 in a friendly last Saturday.
Go back to their 5-3 extra-time loss to Spain in the last Euros and since, Croatia has been hot at 25-7-5 – with losses to Austria, Argentina, Spain (PKs), Turkey and Wales.
I think an upset pick could be, for Croatia to top Group B and make a deep run.
Denmark (+4000)
Having lost to England 2-1 in extra-time in 2020(21) in the semis, they could be worth a longshot bet. However, they failed to get out of the Group Stage in Qatar at the World Cup.
Rasmus Hojlund tied for the Manchester United lead in goals this season with 10 and had 7 for Denmark during qualifying and will be a player to watch this tournament. So too will Pierre-Emile Højbjerg who has been getting interest from a ton of big clubs looking to sign him from Tottenham.
Assuming the Danes come 2nd to England in their group and Germany can win their group, it may be a Denmark/Germany Round of 16.
Some familiar names may not feature as much in this Euros, as Christian Eriksen hasn’t been starting and defenders Simon Kjær and Andreas Christensen have been injured.
Who Wins Euro 2024?
I’m making a lot of assumptions here and as you get to the quarters and semis there are no easy games. But assuming France wins Group D, and England wins Group C, that is a very likely semifinal matchup on one side of the bracket.
And if not England, it could be Spain, Italy, Croatia and even the hosts Germany who would meet France in that semi “if” Germany were to falter and not win their group.
If Portugal wins their group they’ll play a 3rd place team in the Round of 16 and a 2nd place team in the Quarters. That sets up a possible Portugal vs Germany or Portugal vs Spain/Italy/Croatia Semifinal.
All of this, again, assuming no major upsets. So who makes the final?
France have made the final of 3 of the last 4 major soccer tournaments while Portugal have reached the Semis of 4 of the past 6 Euros.
If it is France vs Portugal, France has a massive all-time head-to-head edge at 19-3-6.
The teams drew 2-2 in the last Euros in the Group Stage in June 2021, and Portugal have only won once versus France in the past 14 meetings.
Both teams are loaded with talent but I’ll give the edge the more experienced France in my Euro 2024 predictions and the more experienced coach, Didier Deschamps over Roberto Martinez who was never able to get his old team, Belgium over the hump.
Euro 2024 Picks
- France (+400)
- France over Portugal (+2800)
- Portugal to Reach Final (+350)
Euro 2024 Futures Parlay
Let’s get into a few different types of futures bets you can make for the Euros and combine them into a Euro futures parlay in our Euros picks.
England Win Group C (-250)
Anything other than a 1st place finish in Group C would be a shock. The Danes could be tricky but I’ll still bet on England.
Portugal Win Group F (-225)
Portugal is stacked with one of the best rosters in the tournament – Rafael Leão, Bernardo Silva, Diogo Jota, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix and Pedro Neto. And you can say that even without mentioning Ronaldo who had 10 goals in qualifying (2nd).
That parlay would be +102 alone or you could add these next two selections in the Euro 2024 predictions too.
Ukraine To Advance (-250)
- With Slovakia and Romania in Group E, this is the only group with 2 teams ranked lower than 40 in the FIFA Rankings, and Belgium, while favorites always underachieve.
- They did need a playoff to get here but were behind England and Italy in their qualifying group. Still, this nation has made 4 straight Euros and reached the quarterfinals in 2020(21) losing to England.
- Ukraine also have Artem Dovbyk in their ranks who lead all scorers in La Liga with 24 goals (8 assists) with Girona this season.
Albania Not To Advance (-500)
- Impressive showing in qualifying topping their group ahead of Czech and Poland and have 18-goal scorer Rey Manaj from the Turkish Super Lig, but they’re in the Group of Death and it’s just their 2nd major international tournament.
- They’re facing teams that rank 8th, 9th and 10th in the FIFA Rankings.
- Their xG per 90 in qualifying was 1.13 (36th out of 50 teams) which is the 2nd-lowest only above Georgia’s 1.00 among the 24 teams in the tournament. (FootyStats)
Parlay Odds: +239 (Bet365)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
