CONMEBOL Libertadores Round of 16 Leg 1 games go down from Tuesday – Thursday, August 13-15 with 3 Tuesday, 3 Wednesday and 2 Thursday. Let’s get into this week’s top soccer picks and Copa Libertadores predictions for the Round of 16.
Of the 16 teams remaining, six countries are represented:
- Brazil: 7
- Argentina: 3
- Uruguay: 2
- Bolivia: 2
- Chile: 1
- Colombia: 1
Betting on South American soccer is a little different in terms of scoring, often being lower-scoring.
If we look at the Group Stage, only three teams played to more Over 2.5 totals than Unders. Two went 4-2 and only one went 5-1.
Seven teams were an even 3-3, two were 2-4 and four went 1-5.
With some of the weaker teams out and the games continuing to have more on the line, I would expect these games to get even tighter. And odds on the Under for most games reflect that, being heavily juiced, so I have a lot of draw predictions coming up.
Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction
It’s 1 of 2 all-Brazil matchups in the Round of 16.
Gremio – 13th in Brazil Serie A
Fluminense – 18th in Brazil Serie A
Gremio were 2nd in Group C at 3-1-2 (7GF/5GA).
Fluminense were 1st in Group A at 4-2-0 (9GF/5GA).
Gremio has owned this matchup of late winning 1-0 in June, 3-2 in December and each of the last 7.
Gremio won 3-1 this weekend and have only 2 losses (1 in PKs) in their last 9. Their games have been tight going 4-1 and 6-2 to the Under 2.5.
Fluminense lost 2-0 this weekend, have 1 win in 4, have allowed multiple goals in 3/4, but have 4 wins in 7 and only 2 losses in 9, but then it’s just 4 wins in 17. Saturday’s 2-0 loss is 1 of only 2 times in 10 games where they haven’t scored.
Fluminense haven’t lost in 11 straight knockout round games in this tournament but have a poor record vs this opponent. They were 3-3 to O/Us in the Group Stage but Gremio was 5-1 to the Under.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Gremio to win (+110)
Colo Colo vs Junior Prediction
Colo Colo – 4th in Chile Primer Division
Junior – 13th in Colombia Categoria Primera A (but have only 4 games and this weekend’s game was postponed)
They have not met since 1994.
Colo advanced as 2nd in Group B with only 1 win at 1-3-2 (4GF/5GA) but just barely and only based on 1 more away goal.
Junior topped Group D with just 2 wins themselves at 2-4-0 (7GF/4GA).
Colo Colo have been rolling. They drew 0-0 this weekend and are undefeated in 8 with only 1 loss in 14 and 2 losses in 19. Just twice in 14 games have they not scored and they’ve scored multiple goals in 5/8.
Junior’s last game was 2-2 on August 4. On one hand they have just 1 win in 6, on the other hand they have just 3 losses in 16. While 2/4 Colombia league games have gone Over 2.5, their trend has been Unders with Under 2.5 going 12-4.
Colo Colo has not made it to the Round of 16 since 2018 and Junior not since 2011. This could be tight. Under 2.5 went 5-1 in the Group Stage for Colo Colo and also 5-1 for Junior. Both saw their past 5 go Under.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Under 2.5 (-200) / Draw (+225)
San Lorenzo vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction
San Lorenzo – 25th in Argentina Liga Proseional
Atletico Mineiro – 9th in Brazil Serie A
They’ve not met since 2018.
San Lorenzo were 2-2-2, 2nd in Group F (6GF/6GA).
Atletico Mineiro were 1st in Group G at 5-0-1, scoring 14, allowing 6, tied for the most goals scored in the Group Stage.
San Lorenzo is lagging down near the bottom of the Argentine league. Overall, they have 1-0 and 3-1 losses in their recent games in all comps and are winless in 4, but have just 2 losses in 7, but then it’s just 5 wins in all comps in 20. The Under 2.5 has gone 5-1 of late.
Atletico Mineiro drew 0-0 this weekend, are 4-3-1 in their past 8 and have scored in 7/8 and 12/14. But top scorer Hulk, 3rd in Brazil Serie A scoring is out injured.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Atletico Mineiro draw no bet (-138)
Penarol vs The Strongest Prediction
Penarol – Uruguay Primera Division (not started)
The Strongest – 2nd in Bolivia Primera Division (Clausura)
They’ve not met since 2018.
Penarol were 2nd in Group G at 4-0-2 (12GF/5GA).
The Strongest were 1st in Group C at 3-1-2 (8GF/6GA).
The Clausura in Uruguay hasn’t started but Penarol has still had many games and only 2 losses in 18 in all comps and just 1 in regulation. Only once in 24 games have they not scored.
The last game was a 1-1 draw with Nacional in the Intermediate Round Final where they lost in PKs 8-7 on August 4.
The Strongest have won 2-1 and 5-0 in recent games, are undefeated in 4, have only 3 losses in 13 and 3 losses in 19.
Penarol are big -334 favorites you could try to add the Under 4 in an SGP.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Penarol to win + Under 4 (-110)
Botafogo vs Palmeiras Prediction
Botafogo – 1st in Brazil Serie A
Palmeiras – 4th in Brazil Serie A
Botafogo were 2nd in Group D at 3-1-2 (7GF/6GA).
Palmeiras were undefeated in Group F at 4-2-0, scoring 14, tied for the most in the Group Stage and allowing 5.
Recent meetings have seen Botafogo win 1-0 in July and Palmeiras 4-3 in November.
Botafogo had been in good form but recently in all comps they have a 2-2, 3-0 loss, 1-1, 4-1 win, 1-0 loss and 3-2 loss in recent games. That 1 win came against Brazil’s worst team, Atletico Goianiense. They’ve not kept any clean sheets in those past 6 games.
Palmeiras hasn’t lost in 3 but their results have been 1-1, 1-0 win and 1-1 and they’re 1-2-3 in their past 6, keeping just 1 clean sheet and never scoring more than 1 goal.
I’d say the Under (-167), Draw (+225) or BTTS (+100).
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Draw (+225)
CA Talleres de Cordoba vs River Plate Prediction
CA Talleres de Cordoba – 7th in Argentina Liga Profesional
River Plate – 9th in Argentina Liga Profesional
In this all-Argentina matchup they drew 2-2 in March and River Plate won 1-0 in October in recent meetings. That is River’s only win in 6 though.
Cordoba were 2nd in Group B at 4-1-1 scoring 10, allowing 6.
River Plate topped Group H at 5-1-0 scoring 12, allowing just 3, tied for the fewest goals allowed in the Group Stage.
Cordoba can suddenly neither win or lose. It’s been all draws of late, with 4 straight 1-1 results. Plus a 3-0 loss to complete their recent competitive games.
River themselves have drawn 1-1 and 0-0 in recent games and have only 1 win in 6 games. They’ve at least scored in 4/5 recent games.
Could be the under (-163) or a draw. The draw for this game has the shortest draw odds of any of the 8 games.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Draw (+200)
Nacional De Football vs Sao Paulo Prediction
Nacional De Football – Uruguay Primera Division (not started)
Sao Paulo – 5th in Brazil Serie A
No meetings since 2008.
Nacional were 2nd in Group H at 3-1-2 (8GF/7GA).
Sao Paolo won Group B at 4-1-1, scoring 10, allowing 3, the joint-fewest goals allowed in the Group Stage.
Nacional’s last game was a 1-1 draw with Penarol in the Intermediate Round Final where they won. in PKs 8-7 on August 4. That makes them 15-2-3 in their last 20 scoring in 19/20 and keeping clean sheets in 4/6 and allowing only 3 goals in 7.
Sao Paulo won 1-0 this weekend are 3-1-0 in 4 and 8-3-2 in 13, keeping clean sheets in 4 straight and 6/8. Only once in 5 games have they scored more than 1 goal in a game.
This again looks tight and could be the Under (-175) or a draw.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Draw (+210)
Flamengo vs Bolivar Prediction
Flamengo – 3rd in Brazil Serie A
Bolivar – 1st in Bolivia Primera Division (Clausura)
At 3-1-2 Flamengo were 2nd in Group E (11GF/4GA).
Bolivar finished ahead of Flamengo for 1st in the group at 4-1-1 (13GF/9GA), giving us the only rematch from the Group Stage. The 9 GA is also the most of any team that advanced. One team allowed 7 and then the next most is multiple teams with 6.
In their Group Stage games Bolivar won 2-1 in Bolivia in April and Flamengo won 4-0 in Brazil in May.
Bolivar’s Group Stage games saw the highest average goals at 3.7 and they were the highest “Over” team at 5-1.
Flamengo is winless in 3 though now after back-to-back 1-0 losses and a 1-1 draw. They had won 4 straight prior to that scoring 2 goals in all 4.
Bolivar is rolling with 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0 wins of late and is 9-4-2 in their past 15. Only twice in 12 games have they not scored.
Bolivar won’t have that elevation advantage in La Paz here and oddsmakers see a straightforward Flamengo win at -900 odds.
You’ll have to ask Flamengo to win by a 2 or 3 and even that is only good for a parlay piece unless you want to add in Bolivar scoring.
- Copa Libertadores Predictions: Flamengo -1.5 (-268) or -2 (-183) or -2.5 (+100)
While surely there won’t be as many draws as I’ve picked, if you hit a couple of them you should do ok.
But here is one Under 3.5 parlay option too.
- Colo Colo vs Junior under 3.5
- Cordoba vs River Plate under 3.5
- Nacional De Football vs Sao Paulo under 3.5
- Parlay Odds (-135)
Other options to include in parlays:
- Gremio to score
- Penarol vs The Strongest over 1.5
- Flamengo over 1.5
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
