Copa America Futures, Group Winners and Outrights

Copa America is here, and while it’s essentially the South American version of the Euros, the limited countries in South America allows for others to join and this year we have several CONCACAF nations in it and it’s hosted in the USA.

Let’s look at the current Copa Amerca odds and make our Copa America predictions here.

Copa America Title Odds

• Argentina (+175)
• Brazil (+225)
• Uruguay (+500)
• Mexico (+1100)
• Colombia (+1200)
• USA (+1200)
• Ecuador (+1600)
• Chile (+2800)
• Peru (+5000)
• Venezuela (+6600)
• Paraguay (+6600)
• Canada (+6600)
• Costa Rica (+8000)
• Jamaica (+15000)
• Panama (+15000)
• Bolivia (+15000)

Copa America Group A

• Argentina (-400)
• Chile (+600)
• Peru (+1000)
• Canada (+1200)

Argentina

FIFA Ranking: 1st

It’s been a great few years to be Argentinian with La Albiceleste winning the 2021 Copas and 2022 World Cup.

Only Brazil and Chile have won back-to-back Copas this century but Argentina do look to be at the height of their powers. 

Argentina lost to Brazil in the 2019 Copas, but then went on a a 36-game undefeated going into the World Cup. A shock 2-1 loss to Suadi Arabia ended the streak but since, they won 14 straight until a 2-0 loss to Uruguay in november in WCQ. 

It was another rare blip on the radar for the loss column for Argentina as they’ve won 5 straight since by a 12-2 combined score. Recently they beat Ecuador 1-0 and Guatemala 4-1.

A win over Ecuador is notable since they may meet in the Knockouts. 

In WCQ for 2026, Argentina are tops in CONMEBOL at 5-0-1, scoring 8 and conceding just 2, the best defensive record. 

Messi and Argentina should have every opportunity to at bare minimum make the final again. They have only 2 losses in 57 games. 

Chile

FIFA Ranking: 42nd

Alexis Sanchez is still the standout star for Chile, now 35 on an aging team that likely has seen it’s best days come to an end for this generation.

Chile won the Copas in 2016, but since have finished at best 4th in the tournament and missed both World Cups.

They lost 1-0 to Brazil in the quarterfinals in 2021. 

Chile’s current manager is Ricardo Gareca, who has previously taken Peru to two Copas semis so they’ll be hoping he can spark La Roja to life. 

But Chile doesn’t look to be going anywhere fast here. They’re 8th in CONMEBOL WCQ at 1-2-3 and 3 goals scored in those 6 games.

Since the start of 2023 they’ve had mixed form at 6-3-4, but only 3 of those wins have come since October. 

They’re 2-1-3 of late but their 3 friendlies in 2024 are a 3-0 win over Albania, 3-2 loss to France and a 3-0 win over Paraguay.

They’re expected to fight with Manager Gareca’s old team Peru for 2nd place behind Argentina in Group A and meet Peru in Round 1.

Peru

FIFA Ranking: 32nd

Peru lost to Brazil 1-0 in the semis in 2021 before losing the 3rd Place Game 3-2 to Colombia. 

Another nation still clinging to an aging star, 40-year-old Pablo Guerrero is back for another major tournament La Rojiblanca.

After 2 semis in the Copas, coach Ricardo Gareca was sacked when Peru failed to qualify for the World Cup and was replaced by Jorge Fossati. Now with Chile, he’ll see his old squad real soon in Round 1.

But Peru has been woeful in World Cup Qualifying so far sitting bottom of the table in CONMEBOL at 0-2-4, scoring 1 goal and allowing 8.

Despite being awful in WCQ, their 2024 friendlies have been positive: 2-0 win Nicaragua, 4-1 win Dominican Republic, 0-0 draw Paraguay and a 1-0 win over El Salvador.

Still, those are wins over weaker CONCACAF teams and a scoreless drew vs a fellow CONMEBOL side 

Canada

FIFA Ranking: 49th

Canada lost all 3 games at the World Cup in 2022 and it’s now a new regime with ex-New York Red Bull, RB Leipzig and Leeds United coach Jesse Marsch taking over Canada’s coaching job as recently as last month in May.

Canada’s warmed up with a 4-0 loss to Netherlands, though it was 0-0 at half and rebounded with a 0-0 draw with France which was impressive. 

But … Canada is very much preparing to co-host WC 2026 and even listening to an interview with Marsch you can tell he’s looking ahead to that and using this tournament to see what he’s got an not setting the expectations too high.

Canada has just 3 wins in 11 games and those are vs Cuba, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

The 3 wins prior to that are vs Panama, Honduras and Curacao.

There’s certainly talent on this Canadian team with Alphonso Davies (Bayern), Stephen Eustaquio (FC Porto), Ismael Kone (Watford), Tajon Buchanan (Inter Milan) and Jonathan David (Lille) playing abroad on big clubs. 

But expectations are low. But I can’t decide between Chile and Peru so let’s pick a big upset for Canada to finish between Argentina.

• To Advance from Group A: ARG and CAN

Copa America Group Group B

• Mexico (+110)
• Ecuador (+160)
• Venezuela (+550)
• Jamaica (+900)

Mexico

FIFA Rankings: 14th

Mexico may be 10-3-6 in their last 19 games but they have just 3 wins in 9 and 1 in 4 coming into the tournament and just lost 4-0 (URU) and 3-2 (BRA).

They have a 1-0 win over Bolivia (9th in WCQ) and also lost 3-2 to Colombia, and even a 2-0 loss to USA recently, so they may not be able to stack up alongside the top South American teams, or top teams in their own conference.

They won the Gold Cup Final last summer over Panama in July, but it’s 4 wins in 12 games since. 

Those 12 games have produced a fair amount of goals though, averaging 3.33 GPG.

Ecuador

FIFA Rankings: 31st

Ecuador went out in the quarterfinals 3-0 to Argentina back in the 2021 Copas.

Ecuador sits top 5 in CONMEBOL WCQ at 3-2-1 in 5th. 

Ecuador’s record looks good coming in at 9-2-3 in their past 14 after winning their past 2 friendlies 3-1 and 2-1 over Bolivia and Honduras. They lost the 2 friendlies prior but thsoe were vs Argentina (1-0) and Italy (2-0).

They do have 3 wins over Bolivia though in that time. 

Betting Ecuador BTTS games has not been a good bet lately outisde of their last 2 games.. The BTTS No is 6-2. So is the Under 2.5.

Venezuela 

FIFA Rankings: 54th

It’s been a bright start to WCQ as Venezuela are 4th in CONMEBOL so far at 2-3-1, scoring 6 goals only conceding 3. The Under has gone 5-1 in those games.

Venezuela’s recent form though overall coming into the Copas isn’t great. 

They’ve not won in 5 games, have 2 goals scored in those 5 games and their 2 friendlies this year were 0-0 with Guatemala and a 2-1 loss to Italy. 

In fact, they’ll come in sorta cold having not played any warm-up games since March 24. 

Betting the Under has been the way to go as Under 2.5 has gone 10-2 in their past 12.

Jamaica

FIFA Rankings: 55th

The form guide will show Jamaica is 11-3-3 which looks good, but those wins have come versus much lower competition than they’ll see at the Copas, with many wins in CONCACAF and lower-ranked Carribean nations.

Coming into the tournament they’ve beaten Dominica 3-2, Dominican Republic 1-0 and Panama 1-0 in their past 3.

Their 3 losses in that time have come vs some of the tougher CONCACAF nations of USA, Canada and Mexico.

But they have been good for a goal in most games scoring 18 of 21 past games. They’ve kept clean sheets in 4/6 as well. 

• To Advance from Group B: ECU / MEX

Copa America Group C

• Uruguay (-138)
• USA (+137)
• Panama (+1600)
• Bolivia (+1800)

Uruguay

FIFA Rankings: 15th

Uruguay Drew Colombia 0-0 in the quarterfinals in 2021 but lost in PKs. 

In 6 games into CONMEBOL WCQ Uruguay are 2nd only behind Argentina at 4-1-1. They’re the highest scorers with 14 goals in 6 games. No one else has more than 8.

Uruguay’’s recent form is a bit spotty drawing Basque Country 1-1, losing 2-1 to Ivory Coast and drawing Costa Rica 0-0 in 2024. But their final game was a 4-0 route of Mexico earlier in June. 

So it’s 1 win in 4, but further back they’re 9-4-2 in 15. 

Failign to score vs Costa Rica is the only time they’ve not scored in 15 games. 

Narwin Nunez is the player most expected to win the Golden Boot from Uruguay and he just had a hat-trick vs Mexico on June 5.

Uruguay will be expected to beat out USA for top spot in Group C.

USA

FIFA Rankings: 11th

Who knows what you’re getting from USA. Last week they had their worst since 2016, losing 5-1 to Colombia. They then went on to draw Brazil 1-1 on Wednesday.

Still, they’re 13-4-5 in their past 22 but have just 2 wins in 6 and one came in PKs.

The USMNT are now 5-8-6 (WDL) under Gregg Berhalter against teams ranked in the top 20 of FIFA’s World Rankings.

Four of those wins are against Mexico.

The USMNT’s only win under Berhalter against a top 20 team excluding Mexico is Iran (20th).

Panama

FIFA Rankings: 45th

They made the Gold Cup Final last summer vs Mexico and lost 1-0.

Panama’s recent form since though is 8-1-2. Go back further and they’re 12-2-3.

That looks good and it is, though you won’t see many big-time names on that list of wins. They beat USA though in the Gold Cup semis.

But they had recent losses to Mexico 3-0 and Jamaica 1-0 in the UNL to start the year, before 2-0 and 3-1 wins this month over Guyana and Montserrat.

In those past 17 games, outside of the 3 losses where they were shut out, they did score in all of the other 14. 

Bolivia

FIFA Rankings: 85th

Bolivia faces uphill battle to qualify for World Cup 2026 being currently 9th of 10 teams in CONMEBOL at 1-0-5, outscored 14-4 with their -10 goal differential the worst in the conference.

Bolivia’s recent form overall thohgh is also poor reading. 

They’ve lost 3-0 (COL), 3-1 (ECU) and 1-0 (MEX) in recent friendlies and have just 3 wins in their past 22 games in all comps.

They’ve conceded in 19/22, given up multiple goals in 13/22, and been shut out 12/22.

In that time they’ve played 2/3 fellow Group C contenders losing 2-1 to PAN and 3-0 to URU.

• To Advance from Group C: URU / USA

Copa America Group D

• Brazil (-250)
• Colombia (+275)
• Paraguay (+1200)
• Costa Rica (+1800)

Brazil

FIFA Rankings: 5th

It’s been a shocking qualifying campaign for the 2026 WC for Brazil so far. In 6 games they are 2-1-3, sitting in the bottom half of the table in 6th. 

Brazil do have a new coach in Dorival Junior from Sao Paulo who took over as recently as January.

Brazil had been winless in 4 games at the time, but Dorival is still undefeated in 2024 friendlies.

• 1-0 win England
• 3-3 draw Spain
• 3-2 win Mexico
• 1-1 draw USA

Decent results. But not enough to stop Brazil legend Ronaldinho from coming out this past weekend and saying this is the worst Brazil team he’s seen and that he won’t be watching the tournament. 

Since losing to Argentina in the 2021 Copas, they had gone 17 games without defeat, but in their last 16 games are just 6-3-7, so he may not be wrong.

Still, Brazil is Brazil and will be expected to go deep.

Colombia

FIFA Rankings: 12th

Colombia lost to eventual winners Argentina in the semis last tournament but did draw 1-1 in regulation and lost in PKs. They went on to beat Peru 3-2 in the 3rd Place Game. 

Colombia are the only team in South America WCQ to not lose yet after 6 games. They’re 3-3-0 and sit 3rd.

Colombia’s recent form is the best of any team coming into this tournament.

In their last 23 games they are 18-5-0, have outscored opponents 42-14. They’ve scored in all but 3 of those 23 games and have kept clean sheets in 14 of those.

Go back further and they have just 3 losses in their past 35 games. 

After beating Bolivia 3-0 and USA 5-1 in warm-friendlies last week, they come in scorching hot having won 8 straight by a combined score of 19-6.

Paraguay

FIFA Rankings: 56th

They drew Peru 3-3 in the quarters last tournament but lost in PKs. 

In CONMEBOL WCQ Paraguay has just 1 win in 6 games, and at 1-2-3 are 7th out of 10. The good news? They’ve only allowed 3 goals in those 6 games. The bad news? They’ve scored only 1 themselves.

Paraguay’s recent form makes it hard to see them upsetting the odds and moving on.

Their 2 friendlies within the past week saw them lose 3-0 to Chile and draw Peru 0-0, two teams also not in good form.

The Albirroja are winless in 4, have 2 wins in 13 and have been shut out in 10/13 and 4 straight. 

In those 13 games they have just 5 goals scored. 

Paraguay may be 3rd favs in the group, but are only slightly favored above Costa Rica. They’re in awful form, but have played much higher-rated opponents in South America than Costa Rica has. 

In reality it likely shouldn’t matter with both stuck playing behind the 5th and 12th ranked nations in the world. 

Costa Rica

FIFA Rankings: 52nd

Los Ticos, 52nd in the FIFA Ranking, have a changing of the guard in net with Keylor Navas retired in net after 114 international matches.

Costa Rica’s recent form is decent having beaten St. Kitts and Nevis and Grenada 4-0 and 3-0 in recent CONCACAF WCQ. A 0-0 draw with Uruguay in a friendly will also be a confidence booster and their only loss in 6 games came vs Argentina (3-1), making them 4-1-1 of late. 

But all 4 wins have come in CONCACAF and they also have recent losses near the end of 2023 vs Costa Rica, Panama, and the UAE.

Playing in a group alongside Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay won’t be easy and they’re easily favored to be 4th. 

• To Advance: from Group D: COL / BRA

Copa America 2024 Predictions

With so few teams participating and only few true power teams, you’re usually pretty safe on backing Argentina or Brazil to make the final and likely win.

Argentina has made the finals the most times at 29 followed by Uruguay (21), Brazil (20), Paraguay (8), Chile (6), Peru (3), and Bolivia, Colombia and Mexico doing so twice 

There’s been 47 Copas won, 15 by each of Argentina and Uruguay, 9 by Brazil, 2 by Paraguay, Chile, and Peru and 1 each by Bolivia and Colombia. 

Uruguay actually topped Brazil in both of those all-time stats, but in the last 11 Copas, Argentina has made the final 5 times (5 of last 7), while winning once and Brazil has made the finals 7 times, winning 5 times. 

Uruguay has made the final just 3 times, winning twice, but not since 2011. Since that win, it was Chile in 2015 and 2016, Brazil in 2019 and Argentina in 2021. 

Outside of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, the only other nation to win since Paraguay in 1979, has was Colombia in 2001.

Let’s look at how I see the bracket unfolding.

Argentina should coast to the final. To not win Group A would be shocking. Whoever they meet from Group B in the quarterfinals should be another win, and then it will be a rematch with someone from Group A in the semis.

It’s the other side of the bracket where there could be chaos. 

I’m taking an upset and picking Colombia to win Group D. That would mean they likely play USA, 2nd from Group C in the quarters and then Uruguay or Brazil again in the semis.

But if they come 2nd in Group D as expected, they play Uruguay in the quarters and then probably Brazil again. 

Winning the Group would be a big advantage in that they may get USA whom they just beat 5-1 and then maybe they can hope Uruguay knocks out Brazi.

I like Colombia for the final, but they do have the toughest potential path. But they are one of the hottest teams in world football. We’ve seen Italy come in hot to the Euros and win and Argentina come in hot to the World Cup and win. This current Colombia streak is comparable.

But no doubt Argentina are favorites and should not have to expend much energy to make the final and they still have the best player in the world … Messi. 

Copa America Futures

• ARG and URU to win groups (+115)
• ARG to reach final (-133)
• ARG to win final (+175)
• COL to reach or win final (+550 / +1200)
• COL qualify (-350) – for a parlay piece in the Copas/Euros
• COL win Group D (+275)