Champions League Predictions – Thursday, September 19

Champions League Matchday 1 continues with 6 more games on Thursday. Let’s cover each game and make up 1 parlay from the games at the end for our top Champions League Predictions, picks and parlays.

Red Star Belgrade vs Benfica Prediction

• RSB: 6-1-0, 21 GF / 4 GA, 1st in Serbia
• BEN: 3-1-1, 9 GF / 4 GA, 5th in Portugal

This is their first meeting in 40 years. 

Red Star has still yet to lose in their league, are the reigning champs in Serbia and go further back across other comps and it’s just 1 loss in 30 games and they’ve only failed to score once as well. 

In home games in all comps they have no losses in 18, going back to December 2023 and have scored multiple goals in all but 2 of those 18.

Benfica is undefeated in 4, the 3 wins came at home and the 1 road game they drew. They also suffered the 1 loss in Portugal on the road. In 19 games in all comps they have just 4 losses. But a draw to Moreirense did see them change managers already this season.

Away in any comp they have conceded in 7 straight and in 12/15.

So perhaps Red Star can get on the scoresheet. But they went out in the Group Stage last year and have lost 14/18 recent UCL games. Benfica too couldn’t get past the group stage last season. 

• Champions League Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-140)

Feyenoord vs Leverkusen Prediction

• FEY: 1-3-0, 9 GF / 5 GA, 6th in Eredivisie
• BL: 2-0-1, 9 GF / 6 GA, 5th in Bundesliga

This is their first meeting.

Feyenoord is off to a slow start in Netherlands under new coach Brian Priske after Arne Slot took the Liverpool job but have still not lost in 4 games and have not lost in any comp in 19 games, with their last being a PK loss to Roma in last season’s UEL. 31 games have past since they lost in regulation.

All of their games this season have featured goals with scorelines of 4-4, 1-1, 5-1, 1-1 and 2-2.

Bundesliga champs Leverkusem finally saw a long long undefeated streak in Germany snapped when they lost to Leipzig 3-2 last month. They responded with a 4-1 beatdown of Hoffenheim on the weekend. 

The RBL loss and the UEL Final loss are their only defeats in 58 games in all comps. Leverkusen games have been all about goals themselves so far. All 4 pre-season games saw BTTS hit, and then it’s been 2-2, 3-2, 1-0, 3-2 and 4-1.

The bets here have to be on Leverkusen or goals. Leverkusen to win (-150) or to score Over 1.5 (-200), BTTS (-200), BTTS & Over 2.5 (-138), Leverkusen to win and BTTS (+180) or Leverkusen to win and score Over 1.5 (-125).

• Champions League Predictions: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-138)

Brest vs Sturm Graz Prediction

• BRE: 1-0-3, 6 GF / 10 GA, 14th in Ligue 1
• SG: 4-0-1, 10 GF / 4 GA, 1st in Austria

This is their first meeting and Brest’s first UCL game, whle it’s the first in over 20 years for Sturm Graz. 

After a great season last year that saw Brest qualify for the UCL, they’ve struggled this campaign. They didn’t win any of their 5 pre-season games and have only 1 win in 4 in Ligue 1 and even drew 2-2 with lower side Guingamp in the Cup. All told in 10 games this season (pre-season and competitive) they’ve kept 1 clean sheet 

Sturm Graz won the Austrian title and finished last season undefeated in 10 games across all matches and have started this season at 6-0-1 in the league and Cup. They even drew PSG 2-2 in a friendly. In the competitive games they’ve outscored opponents 17-7. Goals have been flying at both ends with recent wins of 4-2, 3-1 and 2-1.

There looks like way better games to bet than this one. Perhaps a draw. 

• Champions League Predictions: Draw (+260)

Atalanta vs Arsenal Prediction

• ATA: 2-0-2, 8 GF / 8 GA, 9th in Serie A
• ARS: 3-1-0, 6 GF / 1 GA, 2nd in EPL

This is their first meeting.

Europa League winners Atalanta are off to a so-so start in Serie A, only about mid-pack, winning 2/4. They started the campaign off losing in the Super Cup 2-0 to Real Madrid and followed it up with a 4-0 win over Lecce, 2-1 loss (Torino), 4-0 loss (Inter) and then a 3-2 win over Fiorentina in their last game. So outside of a thumping of Lecce, they’ve conceded multiple goals in 4/5. Only twice in 26 home games in all comps have they not scored though.

Arsenal are hoping this is the year the win the EPL, but also have a shot at the UCL. Only 3 times in 21 games in all matches have they not scored, and that came vs Bayern Munich, Aston Villa and Man City. Their games are generally tight, with Under 2.5 going 5-0 in all comps this season, scoring 7 and allowing just 1. 

Arsenal are dealing with a ton of injuries including Odegaard, Calafiori, Merino and Saka but did shut out Tottenham on the road last weekend. They also have Man City coming up this weekend to look ahead to but Atalanta’s games have been wide-open and their defense is not great and was without injured defenders Toloi and Godfrey in their last game, but then see Kolasinac and Djimsiti fit again.

Don’t see Atalanta keeping a clean sheet and Arsenal’s defense is tough to break down, but I’ll bet La Dea can get 1.

• Champions League Predictions: Both Teams to Score (-140)

Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction

• ATM: 3-2-0, 9 GF / 2 GA, 3rd in La Liga
• RBL: 2-1-0, 4 GF / 2 GA, 3rd in Bundesliga

There’s been 1 meeting, back in the 2020 UCL, won 2-1 by RBL.

Atleti is off to an undefeated start in La Liga after 5 games and any game where they’re at home you have to consider betting them. They just won at home 3-0 over Valencia this weekend and they are 32-6-3 in all comps at the Wanda in recent time. Last year they won all 5 of their home UCL games. 

Leipzig are also yet to lose this season in 3 league games and 1 in the Cup. Go back to last season and in all comps they’ve not lost since February 24 away to Bayern, a run of 16 games. 

RBL have shut out 2 teams that struggle to score in Bochum and Union Berlin and both when playing at home. But away to Leverkusen they allowed 2, and away to Essen in the Pokal 1.

These two are both in great form, but Atleti at home is always worth a bet. 

• Champions League Predictions: Atletico Madrid moneyline (-135)

Monaco vs Barcelona Prediction

• MON: 3-1-0, 7 GF / 1 GA, 3rd in Ligue 1
• BAR: 5-0-0, 17 GF / 4 GA, 1st in La Liga

These teams just played in August in an exhibition match, the Trofeo Joan Gamper. A game Barca usually wins to kick off the season having won 12 straight, this time Monaco came out on top 3-0.

Both are off to flying starts with Monaco undefeated in 5 in the league and Cup, with scores of 3-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-0. In 16 games in all comps going back to last season, Monaco has only lost once, away to Lyon 3-2 in April.

It’s a similar story for Barca, sitting top of the La Liga table scoring for fun with wins of 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 7-0 and 4-1. So naturally the BTTS or combo with Over 2.5 has been a moneymaker in their games. They do have not lost often with just 3 defeats (Girona, Real Madrid, PSG) in 26 games. 

Both are in great form and scoring plenty of goals which I’d expect to continue here.

• Champions League Predictions: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-138)

Champions League Parlay Picks

• Monaco vs Barca – BTTS
• Feyenoord vs Leverkusen – Over 1.5
• Atleti – to score
• Odds (-101)