Champions League Predictions – Matchday 1 (Sept 17)

The new format of the UCL Group Stage kicks off with 6 games on Tuesday, in the opening round of 8 Matchdays. Let’s cover each game and make up 1 parlay from the games at the end for our top Champions Predictions, picks and parlays.

Juventus vs PSV Prediction

• Juve: 2-2-0, 6 GF / 0 GA, 3rd in Serie A
• PSV: 5-0-0, 20 GF / 2 GA, 1st in Eredivisie

This is their first-ever meeting. 

Juve suffered a shock away draw to Empoli Saturday, 0-0. While they’re undefeated in Serie A it’s now back-to-back draws where they’ve not scored. 

PSV played Saturday, winning 2-0 and have been perfect in the Netherlands so far. And they rarely lose when playing domestically. 

I could go back further in their last 24 games in all comps they have just 3 losses, only one in the Eredivise and then 1 in the UCL to Dortmund and 1 in the Super Cup, losing to Feyenoord in PKs after a 4-4 draw.

Only once in those 24 games have they not scored (Dortmund) only twice in 36 games have they not scored (Feyenoord). They were last year’s Dutch champions, setting an Eredivisie record for points (91) and made the Round of 16 in the UCL. Despite some UCL success, they’ve won only 1 of 17 road UCL games going back over many seasons.

So perhaps you could say PSV, if they are to struggle, it comes vs some top teams. Which could be the case here. Juve have kept 4 clean sheets to start the year but have also started struggling to score.

• Champions League Predictions: Under 2.5 (+110)

Young Boys vs Aston Villa Prediction

• YB: 0-3-3, 7 GF / 14 GA, 12th in Switzerland
• AV: 3-0-1, 7 GF / 6 GA, 5th in EPL

Young Boys have been off in their league since August 31, but did play Saturday in the Swiss Cup winning 4-2. 

But in the league, they’ve been struggling, still winless in 6 games and sitting 12th (last).

Despite 0 wins in the league, they beat Galatasary 3-2 and 1-0 to get to the UCL Group Stage. And now, between the league, UCL and Cup, are undefeated in 7 games at 4-3-0, outscoring opponents 23-9, but that is inflated by a 10-0 demolition of lower side Printse-Nendaz in the Cup.

Still, they’ve allowed multiple goals in 4 of those 7, and to weaker teams than Aston Villa. 

Villa have scored multiple goals in 3/4 EPL games including in a 3-2 win over Everton on Saturday. They’ve only been shut out to Arsenal. 

This is their first-ever meeting and Villa’s first UCL game in modern times, which Villa should come out on top in.

• Champions League Predictions: Aston Villa win (-154)

Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Prediction

• RM: 3-2-0, 9 GF / 2 GA, 2nd in La Liga
• STU: 1-1-1, 7 GF / 7 GA, 10th in Bundesliga

This is the first-ever meeting between the teams. 

Real Madrid met Sociedad Saturday and won 2-0 on the road to remain undefeated at 3-2-0 but they do have some concerning draws against lower sides, 1-1 with each of Mallorca and Las Palmas. Those are the only 2 goals they’ve conceded in 5 La Liga games though.

Stuttgart rolled past Gladbach 3-1 Saturday in Germany with 1 goal from Undav and a brace by Demirovic. That’s their first win in 3 games, now being 1-1-1 after a 3-1 loss to Freiburg and a 3-3 draw with Mainz.

They’re being thrown right into the deep end in their UCL adventure, facing the champs who have just 1 UCL loss in 20 games, the 2023 final and who have 0 losses in all comps in 32 games and just 1 loss in 54 games, a CDR extra-time defeat vs Atleti a year and a half ago. 

Stuttgart lost several key players from last year’s 2nd place Bundesliga team and have already given up 3 goals twice to teams far inferior to Los Blancos.

• Champions League Predictions: Real Madrid -1.5 (-133)

Bayern Munich vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction

• BM: 3-0-0, 11 GF / 3 GA, 1st in Bundesliga
• DZ: 4-1-1, 13 GF / 4 GA, 3rd in Croatia HNL 

There’s been only 2 games between them, both in the 2015 UCL, won 5-0 and 2-0 by Bayern.

Bayern just had another big win, 6-1 this weekend, routing the newly promoted Holstein Kiel which included a Harry Kane hat-trick. They’ve been perfect so far under Vincent Kompany in the Cup and league winning 4-0, 3-2, 2-0 and 6-1. 

Bayern may not always win the UCL title, but they rarely lose in this competition. In their last 53 UCL games they’ve lost only 5 times and to generally better teams like PSG, Villarreal, Man City, Lazio and Real Madrid. In the Group Stage, they’ve not lost in 40 games, winning 36.

Zagreb have a rest advantage having played last Friday, suffering their first loss of the season to now, 2nd place Hajduk Split. 

But in all comps, not counting friendlies, that is actually their first loss after 22 games undefeated. Go back further and they have only 3 losses in 43 in all comps. They also won a record 25th Croatian title last season and their 7th straight.

This weekend’s 1-0 loss was the first time in 11 games there weren’t 2+ goals in their games. In 8/11 there’s been 3+.

Bayern are massive -700 favorites so you’d need to ask them to win by 3 or 4 to get any sorta value. Or create some sorta SGP.

• Champions League Predictions: Bayern Munich win + to score over 1.5 + Harry Kane anytime scorer (-163)

Sporting vs Lille Prediction

• SPO: 5-0-0, 19 GF / 2 GA, 1st on Portugal
• LIL: 2-0-2, 5 GF / 4 GA, 8th in Ligue 1

It was way back in the 2010 UEL when they met last with Sporting winning both. 

Sporting lost in the Super Cup to Porto 4-3 in extra-time to start the season but have been perfect since winning 5 straight. All told, they’ve outscored opponents 22-6, scoring multiple goals in each game and keeping 3 straight clean sheets. 

In the league alone, their 19 GF is 10 more than the next closest, Benfica with 9.

In their last 30 games they have only 3 losses, 2 to Porto in ET and 1 to Atalanta in the UEL.

Lille beat Slavia Prague to get here. While they started the summer strong at 4-1-0, they’ve now lost 2-1, 3-1 and 1-0 in UCL and L1 games so don’t come in with great form. 

I’d back Sporting at home who have won 19 straight on their pitch domestically. Granted this is a different competition but I give them the edge.

• Champions League Predictions: Sporting win (-150)

AC Milan vs Liverpool Prediction

• AC: 1-2-1, 9 GF / 6 GA, 9th in Serie A
• LIV: 3-0-1, 7 GF / 1 GA, 4th in the EPL

When they last met competitively it was in 2021 UCL play with Liverpool winning 3-2 and 2-1. 

This weekend Milan coasted past Venezia 4-0. But that was their first win in Serie A in 4 games. They had given up 2 goals in each of their previous 3 games, and this win, comes against a promoted side who is now 20th in Serie A at 0-1-3 and outscored 8-1.

Meanwhile, Liverpool suffered a shock upset, 1-0 at home to Nottingham Forest. They had won 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0 in the games prior.  

If I’m picking a winner I’d say Liverpool. You can’t put too much into a big win over Venezia. But then losing at home to Forest is concerning too. In Italy, they may split the points.

• Champions League Predictions: Draw (+280)

Parlay Picks: Real Madrid win / Bayern Munich win + O1.5 / Young Boys vs Aston Villa over 1.5 (-127) Bet365