The Champions League Playoff Knockout Round kicks off with Leg 1 ties on Tuesday, February 17 to Wednesday, February 18, 2026 with 4 games on each day. For today’s Champions League predictions, we’ll focus on 1 best bet parlay for each day.
UCL Picks #1
Tuesday.
Galatasaray vs Juventus Prediction
Gala didn’t impress me much in the League Phase. Just 3-1-4 and outscored 11-9, they were 20th, and didn’t win any of their final 4 games. At home though, they conceded only 3 goals in 4 games. Since losing to Man City on the final matchday Gala has returned to their high-scoring ways with wins of 4-0, 3-0 and 5-1 in Turkey.
Icardi registered 3 goals this weekend vs Eyupspor, while Osimhen has goals in 5/6 league games.
Meanwhile Juve only lost once, 1 of just 4 teams to have 1 or 0 losses in the UCL League Phase.
On Saturday they had a huge match with 1st placed Inter in Italy, were tied 1-1, took a first half red card, and almost made it to the end tied 1-1, before conceding in the 76’, tying immediately after in the 83’ but then conceding again in the 90’ to lose 3-2.
After a strong run, they now have only 1 win in 5 and have allowed 3, 2, 3, and 1 goal in their last 4.
Juve are the better side, could win, and should advance over 2 legs, but in Turkey, in their 200th European Cup match where they’ve lost just 1/11, I think Gala can at least get on the scoresheet. We’re going way back to 2013 and earlier, but Juve has never won in the 3 trips they’ve made to Turkey historically.
- UCL Picks: BTTS
Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
3rd in Portugal hosts 2nd in Spain.
It’s a quick rematch from the final League Phase round where Benfica shocked Los Blancos in Portugal winning 4-2. In a wild back-and-forth affair, Benfica was up 3-1 and 3-2, but needing a better goal difference otherwise jump into the top 24 keeper Trubin pushed up in on the final free kick and got the goal to clinch the win, bring Benfica to the final playoff spot in 24th, and send Real Madrid crashing out on the top 8 to finish 9th. To make matters worse for Real Madrid, both Ascencio and Rodrigo got sent off in stoppage time so they’ll be shorthanded.
Since that game Benfica has a 0-0 draw and wins of 2-1 and 2-1. In all home games in all comps they’ve only failed to score once, vs Leverkusen in the UCL.
Possibly resting a knee injury, Mbappe was on the bench this weekend vs Sociedad and it didn’t seem to matter. His replacement, Garcia scored, Vini had 2 and Valverde 1 as well and they won 4-1. Win or lose, Madrid has now scored multiple goals in 14 straight.
Prior to Saturday, Mbappe who has scored in 6 straight games and 9/10, with the one game he didn’t, only seeing 15 mins of playtime. In 3/5 recent games he’s scored a brace. And in 9/10 he’s had multiple shots on target. Versus Benfica last game he had 2 goals, 4 shots and 2 on target.
While my instinct is to bet another BTTS here, their last match had different circumstances where Benfica needed to attack and score to move up the standings, this one could be closer.
- UCL Picks: Over 1.5, Madrid to score, Mbappe 1+ shot on target
- Parlay Picks: GAL vs JUV btts / BEN vs RM over 1.5 / RM to score, Mbappe 1+ sot (+131)
UCL Picks #2
Wednesday.
Qarabag vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite finishing just 22nd, Qarabag were one of the surprises to me in the League Phase. They won 3, and scored plenty of goals with 13, but then shipped a ton giving up 21 — only last placed Kairat with 22 allowed more. At home in Azerbaijan is where they really shined offensively scoring 2, 2, ,2 and 3 goals and against Copenhagen, Chelsea, Ajax, and Frankfurt. Even on the road, they had 3 away to Benfica.
So while they’re huge underdogs to advance even huge dogs in Leg 1 (+650), it may not be too much to ask for them to get on the scoresheet. Newcastle were just 1-2-1 in their road games, and conceded in 3/4, albeit vs tougher teams than Qarabag.
The final UCL matchday saw Newcastle beat PSV 3-0. But since then, they went 5 games winless (4 losses), before beating Spurs 3-2 in the league and then Villa 3-1 in the FA Cup last weekend. Both of those wins came on the road, not a place where Newcastle has excelled, being 3-4-6 in away EPL games. With BTTS & Over 2.5 props going 5-0 and BTTS alone 6-0, we might get some goals from both here.
- UCL Picks: BTTS (-110)
Bodo/Glimt vs Inter Milan Prediction
This looks simple on paper, but Inter are only -143 road favs.
Which is likely cause any trip to the Arctic to play Bodo in Norway can be unpredictable.
Bodo scored in 7 of their 8 league phase games, scored multiple goals in 6 of them, and that includes a 2-2 draw with Tottenham, 3-2 loss to Juventus, 3-1 win over Man City and 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid. Take them lightly at your own peril. With Hauge and Hogh scoring 4 and 3 goals respectively, they have weapons.
With the Norwegian league off, Bodo is well-rested and have been waiting at home for this match,
Inter were looking a lock through 4 rounds of the League Phase with no losses but then lost to top teams, 2-1 Atleti, 1-0 Liverpool, and 3-1 Arsenal, before winning on MD8 2-0 over Dortmund.
They got a last-minute winner over Juve this weekend to win 3-2 and have not won 6 straight outscoring opponents 20-5, while only losing once in games in regulation across all comps. Still tops in Serie A, Inter is still far superior and it would be a shock for them not to advance.
- UCL Picks: Over 1.5
Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Club Brugge won their final 2 games in the UCL and with 15GF/17GA, their 4.0 GPG in UCL matches was only behind Barcelona’s, and … was tied with this opponent, Atleti. They’ve been involved in tons of high-scoring games no matter the competition lately, as they beat Cercle Brugge this weekend 2-1, have won 5/6 and have scored multiple goals on their own in 9/10 games. There’s been 3+ goals in Brugge games in 11/12.
Atletico have their road form to blame for missing the top 8, as they went 1-1-2 and were outscored 10-6 in road games, only having the 22nd best road record. But losing 2-1 to Bodo/Glimt at home in the final matchday also didn’t help. Back in La Liga this weekend, road form was again an issue, as they lost 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano. They’ve not been able to string together consistency lately having lost to Bodo and drawing vs Levante, then blowing out Real Betis 5-0, losing to Betis 1-0, blowing out Barca 4-0 in CDG and then the Rayo loss.
Both teams saw all 8 league phase games have 2+ goals. Atleti was 7-1 to BTTS and CB was 5-3. Brugge scored 10 goals in 4 home games.
- UCL Picks: Over 1.5
- Parlay Picks: QAR vs NEW btts / BG vs INT over 1.5 / CB vs ATM over 1.5 (+161)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
