The Women’s Olympic Soccer Gold Medal Game between USA and Brazil kicks off at 11am EST on Saturday, August 10.
USA is into their 6th Olympic Final and Brazil their 3rd.
Brazil vs USA Odds
- BRA +333
- DRAW +210
- USA -106
- BRA to adv +162
- USA to adv -225
- Over 2.5 +135
- Under 2.5 -167
- BTTS Yes +110
- BTTS No -150
Brazil Preview
In the group stage Brazil beat Nigeria 1-0, then lost to Japan 2-1 giving up 2 late goals, lost to Spain 2-0 but played a player down (Marta) half the game and then upset France 1-0 in the quarterfinals scoring in the 82’ minute from Gabi Portilho for the winner.
It was 1 of only 2 shots on target for Brazil in the game. But they did only allow France to register 3 on target themselves.
In the semis, they faced a rematch with Spain and this time were much stronger.
Spain shot themselves in the foot early with an own goal within 6 minutes versus.
Brazil could have added another with Priscila on a breakaway and rolling the ball wide of the net.
Brazil would add a 2nd right before the break from Gabi Portilho who knocked in a cross into the box to make it 2-0.
Into the 2nd half and Brazil kept coming and countered with Spain attacking. Adriana hit the woodwork and on the rebound, it was headed from Portilho back to Adriana to head it home to make it 3-0.
Spain would pull one back late off a Brazil own goal of their own, credited to Salma Parralluelo. They hit the crossbar immediately after, but Brazil iced it with a 4th in the 91’ from Kerolin. 4-1. Parralluelo gave Spain a glimmer of hope scoring in the 102’ but that still made it only 4-2.
The first time in 16 years Brazil has made the Olympic final and Marta will return from suspension in what will be her last Olympic game with Brazil.
Brazil are now 12-0-4 in their last 16 and have scored in all but 2 of those games, this tournament vs Spain and another vs USA (1-0) further back.
USA Preview
In 3 Group Stage games USA won 3-0 (Zambia), 4-1 (Germany) and 2-1 (Australia).
In the quarterfinals vs Japan, it would end 0-0 and go to extra-time where finally Trinity Rodman scored in the 107’ minute.
In a rematch with Germany in the semis, it would again end 0-0 where the US would need a Sophia Smith 95’ minute goal to get the win and advance.
Their leading scorers have been:
- Mallory Swanson (3)
- Trinity Rodman (3)
- Sophia Smith (3)
- Lynn Williams (1)
- Korbert Albert (1)
Further back the US is undefeated in 14 at 13-1-0 outscoring opponents 29-7, which includes clean sheets in 9/14 and multiple goals scored in 9/14. They also only have 1 defeat in 20 and 2 defeats in 28 games.
Brazil vs USA Head-to-Head
Back in March USA won 1-0 in the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
In that game Brazil had 57% possession and 11 shot attempts but 0 on target. The US only had 7 and 3, but Lindsay Horan found the back of the net in 1st half-stoppage time to get USA the win.
The previous 3 meetings were all in the SheBelieves Cup and all won by USA as well.
2-1 in 2023. 2-0 in 2021 and 1-0 in 2019.
USA has won each of the past 7 and in undefeated in 9. Brazil’s last win was a friendly in 2014. Their last competitive win over USA was in the 2007 World Cup.
So recently the trend is USA wins and close low-scoring games.
Brazil vs USA Prediction
The US has dominated Brazil historically though their recent win in the Gold Cup was close. The way the “Trident” is rolling right now, US have 3 players in Smith, Rodman and Swanson who can score at any moment.
But Brazil has maybe been less flashy, but equally impressive. They were minutes away from beating Japan and lost to Spain in the Group Stage playing short.
Then cruised past Spain last round which is no easy feat. Marta, and her teammates, will not only be motivated to win Gold obviously, but also to send Marta off on a high as she closes out a legendary career.
The knockout round games have mostly been close with 4/6 going to ET and 4/6 going Under. The 2 that went Over involved Spain.
This could be close too, bring the Draw or Under into play.
The Under 2.5 is just -167 so if you want to increase those odds let’s add some shot props into the mix.
Brazil’s Gabi Portilho leads the teams in goals (3) and shots (10).
Add her to get a shot and that goes to -115.
On the US side, Smith (25), Rodman (18), Swanson (14) and Horan (10) have all been piling up the shots.
Add any one of them to get 1 shot and you’ll improve the odds some more.
Add Smith to get 2 shots and you’re up to +120 at Bet365.
Her 25 shot attempts in 5 games averages out to 5 per game.
- Women’s Olympic Soccer Prediction: Under 2.5 + Portilho Over 0.5 shot attempts + Smith Over 1.5 shot attempts (+120)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
