It’s MLS Matchday 10 and let’s get into this week’s MLS predictions and best bets.
This week we have 12 games on Saturday and two on Sunday.
Nashville is coming off the bye and Philadelphia is still undefeated and will stay so at least for another week as they’re the bye team this round.
Columbus has CCC Semifinal action coming up next week on Tuesday versus Monterrey, so we’ll skiop betting on them this week.
But let’s dive into six games we will be betting in these MLS predictions below.
Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Prediction
Another Miami vs Nashville game. These teams just keep meeting up in every tournament. They’ve played twice already in the CCC with a 2-2 draw in Nashville and a 3-1 Miami win in Florida.
Since the start of last year they’ve played 6 times with Miami being 3-2-1. The only road win came with Miami winning in PKs in the Leagues Cup Final after a 1-1 draw.
In all comps Nashville has now allowed multiple goals in 7 straight and their defense is just not the same without Walker Zimmerman and Shaq Moore.
And their offense is non-existent when Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge aren’t clicking.
Nashville has only 1 win, at home, versus a Charlotte team that doesn’t score much over their past 8 games.
Miami are rightfully big favorites, but their defense was already bad and Jordi Alba left injured last week. That could open up space for the speedy Jacob Shaffelburg for Nashville.
The Herons got their first win in 5 games last week but have still given up a goal in 10 straight and multiple in each of their last 4.
Betting on BTTS and Over 2.5 in your MLS predictions could be a good bet or simply Miami Over 1.5 in this soccer parlay.
- MLS Predictions: Inter Miami over 1.5
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Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Prediction
Despite missing several key players, Ben Olson has the Dynamo 3rd in the West at 4-1-2. Defensively, they’re tied for the lowest GA in the league with just 7.
Offensively, they aren’t lighting up the scoreboard with just 9 goals, but they’ve still scored in every single MLS game as well as in 10/11 overall matches and in 6 straight. They also have 4 wins in their past 5 and won 2-1 away to Minnesota last week.
The Dynamo are always strong at home and in all matches are 11-3-2 in their past 16 and have just 4 losses in their past 29 home games.
Austin’s 2-game win streak ended last week losing 1-0 in St. Louis, leaving them 11th.
Save for one, 0-0 draw with Seattle on March 2, Austin has let in a goal in each of their other 7 games.
Austin is never good on the road. Their 2 wins this season were at home and going back to last season they are winless in 10 road games in MLS and have just 3 wins in 25. Unsurprisingly, they’ve given up a goal in 24/25.
Last year the home team won all 3 games, Houston 2-0 and 2-1 and Austin 3-0. Home teams have gone 7-0-1 in the all-time meetings and the last meeting (3-0 Austin) was the only time Houston has failed to score versus Austin in those 8 games. Certainly Houston looks like good bet to win or to simply score in this parlay.
- MLS Predictions: Houston to score
LAFC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
There’s some Game of the Week potential here with 6th in West LAFC hosting 2nd in the East NYRB.
Both have scored some goals, LAFC 13 in 8 games, and New York 11 in 8 games.
LAFC’s defense hasn’t been perfect, letting in 12 goals, but New York’s has been tight giving up only 7 which is tied for the league-best.
New York drew CHI 0-0 last week but were controlling that game until taking a red card and still hung on and almost won hitting the post twice at the end of the game. They still have just 1 defeat on the year.
The Red Bulls have conceded in 3/4 road games and the only one they didn’t was their first game to Nashville who struggles to score.
LAFC are undefeated in 2 games drawing Portland 2-2 last week, have just 1 loss in 4 and have scored 11 goals in their last 4 games, but, they’ve allowed 6 goals in their last 3 games and have conceded in 6/8 games.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- MLS Parlay Picks: MIA over 1.5 / HOU to score / LAFC vs NYRB over 1.5 (+117)
Sporting KC vs St Louis City Prediction
One of MLS’s newest rivalries has been one of the most exciting in its’ early existence. They played 5 times last year with the home teams winning 4/5 and there were no draws. SKC went 3-0-2 and scorelines were 4-0, 2-1, 4-1, 4-1 and 2-1.
This season SKC games average 3.4 GPM and they have put up the 4th most shots on target.
Despite only 2 losses they also only have 2 wins. And they’ve blown leads of 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0 in recent weeks. Last week they scored early vs Miami but lost 3-2.
BTTS bets has hit in 7/8 games, which is a bet that has hit in 5/8 for St. Louis too. But it has not hit in either of their past 23 games, a 1-0 win over Austin and 0-0 draw with Dallas.
St. Louis has kept 3 clean sheets this season, but in their 3 road games have drawn 2-2 and 3-3 and lost 3-1.
Both have been scoring and neither been very capable of keeping clean sheets. I certainly expect SKC to score at home in this rivalry and St. Louis has just 1 road clean sheet in 11 games. But SKC can’t seem to hold a lead and St. Louis could get Eduard Lowen back this week which should bolster the attack.
- MLS Predictions: Both Teams to Score
Chicago Fire vs Real Salt Lake Prediction
Chicago is undefeated in 2 games and have just 1 loss in five but are still 11th in East at 2-3-3.
RSL only has 3 points more than Chicago (12 vs 9) but are 4th in the West at 3-3-2.
RSL started with only 1 win in 4, but are now undefeated in 4. They’ve scored in 6/8 but also conceded in 6/8. BTTS is 5-3 and there’s been 2+ goals in 7/8.
Chicago has been all over the map. The Fire had only 1 win in 5 to start the season, but now only 1 loss in their last 5. They drew the Red Bulls 0-0 last week but spent half the game up a man and still came inches away from losing with New York hitting the post at the end of the game twice.
They too have scored in 6/8, but allowed in 7/8 and there’s been 2+ goals in 7/8 games.
Hugo Cuypers has yet to take off for the Fire, but does have 2 goals, while 4 Fire players have scored multiple goals and 6 have at least 1.
RSL will go as Chicho Arango goes as he has 6 of the team’s 11 goals and is tied atop the Golden Boot race. This could be another good BTTS bet in the MLS picks or just Over 1.5 in this parlay.
- MLS Predictions: Over 1.5
- MLS Parlay Picks: SKC vs STL Both to score / CHI vs RSL Over 1.5 (+103)
LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
The last game of the round, looks like a layup for a Galaxy win in our MLS predictions and we’ll make this a single bet, not a parlay.
It’s the Cali Clasico between 1st in West LA Galaxy and last in the West, the San Jose Earthquakes. LA has scored the 2nd most goals, only behind Miami, though they have played 1 fewer game, while SJ has allowed the most goals, 20, in just 8 games.
This is the highest scoring rivalry in MLS history and we’ve already seen them play once, and that trend continued in a 3-1 road Galaxy win on March 2.
Other scores between them have been: 3-2 LA, 2-2, and 2-1 LA last year. And before that, 3-2, 3-2, 2-1, 3-1.
LA has actually scored 2+ goals in 7/8 and in each of the past 6 vs the Quakes.
That’s something LA did last week winning 3-1 in Vancouver and something they’ve done in 5/8 games this season.
Allowing 2+ goals is something San Jose has done in every single game this season, allowing in reverse order, 3 last week to Colorado and 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2.
They’re giving up goals to teams that don’t even usually score like Austin, Houston, Colorado and Dallas.
San Jose’s only chance here is that they usually come to play in this derby and LA’s defense rarely keeps clean sheets. The BTTS & O2.5 bet is 15-2 in Galaxy games dating back into last season. That is priced at -138 in the MLS odds.
But San Jose has been so poor I’m just going to focus on LA for this MLS prediction and bet a Galaxy win and for them to score at least two goals in a same-game parlay.
- MLS Predictions: LA win and over 1.5 LA goals (-150)
Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
