This year’s Copa Libertadores final kicks off on Saturday, November 30 at 3pm EST. Let’s break down the odds, form, key stats and best bets to make for our Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo prediction.
It’s an all-Brazilian matchup here that will be played at the Estadio Mas Monumental in Buenos Aires. Meaning for the 6th straight year a team from Brazil will win and will bring Brazil level with Argentina on 25 wins for the most wins by a team from their country in all-time records. Despite this, neither of these teams was involved as winners or finalists in any of those finals. In 3/5 recent years it’s been 2 Brazilian teams contesting the final.
Mineiro last reached the final and won in 2013 which is the only time they’ve made it this far, while Botafogo makes their first finals appearance ever.
Atletico Mineiro are the underdogs sitting 10th in Serie A at 10-14-12 with 44 points, a full 29 points behind their opponents, 1st placed Botafogo at 21-10-5 with 73 points.
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo Odds
- AM (+280)
- DRAW (+230)
- BOT (+105)
- O2.5 (+140)
- U2.5 (-188)
- BTTS Yes (+110)
- BTTS No (-150)
- AM adv (+137)
- BOT adv (-188)
Atletico Mineiro Preview
Mineiro relatively breezed through the group stage at 5-0-1.
From there it was a 1-1 draw and 1-0 win over San Lorenzo in the Round of 16.
In the quarterfinals they lost 1-0 in Leg 1 to Fluminense before winning 2-0 in Leg 2 to advance to the semis.
That set up a meeting with River Plate. A huge 3-0 Leg 1 win was more than enough to see them through as they also drew 0-0 in Leg 2.
Include all 12 Copa Libertadores matched and Mineiro are 8-2-2. They’ve not lost in 7 games, only allowed more than 1 goal once in 12 games (10 games back), have kept clean sheets in 4/5 and 5/7 recent games and have scored in 9/12. During the knockout rounds the Under 2.5 has gone 5-1.
Botafogo Preview
Botafogo didn’t have as straightforward of a group stage being 2nd in their group at 3-1-2.
In the Round of 16 they won 2-1 and drew 2-2 with Palmeiras.
Then onto the quarters where the drew Sao Paulo twice. First 0-0 and then 1-1. That srnt things to PKs where they advanced 5-4 on spot kicks.
In the semis, they too essentially had a trip to the finals locked up after Leg 1 after beating down Penarol 5-0. Meaning even a 3-1 loss in Leg 2 saw them easily advancing.
In all 12 games for Botafogo, they’re 6-3-3 but only last game’s loss where they didn’t need to win is their only loss in 10. They’ve scored in 9/12 and conceded in 8/12.
In the knockout rounds, Botafogo only lost 1 game they didn’t need to win, but … only won 2/6 games in regulation as 1 needed PKs. They did pile up the goals scoring 11 goals in 6 games and the Over 2.5 went 4-2.
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo Head-to-Head
This season Botafogo won at home 3-0 in July and they drew 0-0 in Mineiro recently on November 20. That was the only draw between them in 14 games oddly. The Under 2.5 has gone 5-1 of late and Botafogo is 3-1-1.
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo Prediction
For all of the positives about Mineiro in this competition, that Leg 1 semifinals win over River Plate is their last win back on October 22. 10 games have now passed without them winning, they’ve scored only 6 goals in 10 games and 4 came in the last 2, a 2-2 draw and then a 3-2 loss on Tuesday, albeit with a reserve squad. They could not possibly be any colder coming into this final.
In contrast, Botafogo could not be in better form entering this final. Look at all comps and they’re first in Brazil and that 3-1 Penarol loss in Leg 2 is their only defeat in 20 games across all matches. On Tuesday they beat Palmeiras 3-1, but had only scored 1, 0, and 0 goals in the 3 games prior. They’ve only allowed 2 goals in their past 5 games.
Neither has been great road teams in this tournament. Botafogo has just 2 road wins but 1 needed PKs and the other was back in the group stage. Mineiro have 2 road wins this tournament but none in the knockout round.
Recent finals have been tight with 2 ending 1-1 and needing extra-time and 2 finishing 1-0 in the last 4 years.
If we look to the last meeting played between them just 11 days ago, it was 0-0. The stats will all favor Botafogo with 71%, shot attempts 27-3 and shots on target 4-0, but then Mineiro took a red card in the 40th minute. Botafogo took 2 themselves but late in the 97’ and 100’ minutes.
This looks tight. And another close game should be expected. You’d have to lean to Botafogo to win given their form and that Mineiro has not beaten a Brazilian team in the knockout rounds of the Copa Libertadores since 2013. Botafogo have not lost to a Brazilian team since August and have only conceded 1 goal in the past 5 head-to-head matchups with Mineiro.
- Copa Libertadores Final Prediction: Botafogo double chance + Under 3 goals (-115) Bet365
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
