Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Matchday 3 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for the following games.
AFCON Schedule: Tuesday, December 30
- Uganda vs Nigeria
- Tanzania vs Tunisia
- Botswana vs DR Congo
- Benin vs Senegal
AFCON Picks
Here are today’s best bets for the Africa Cup of Nations in Groups C and D.
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Uganda vs Nigeria | Nigeria double chance / to score / under 4.5 | (-163) |
| Tanzania vs Tunisia | Both Teams to Score | (+150) |
| Botswana vs DR Congo | DR Congo to win to nil & under 3.5 | (+100) |
| Benin vs Senegal | Senegal to win / Mane 1+ shot on target / under 3.5 | (+115) |
| Parlay Pick | Nigeria to score / DRC to win / Senegal to win | (+111) |
Uganda vs Nigeria Preview
Uganda (The Cranes)
85th in FIFA Rankings.
They started the tournament with a lopsided 3-1 loss to Tunisia. They were down within 10 minutes and only got one back in the 92′ (Omedi) which was also their only shot on target.
Then on MD2 they met Tanzania and drew 1-1. They again conceded first (59 minutes in from a PK), and again scored late in the 80′, but they did hold Tanzania to only 2 shots on target. A glorious chance at a win was missed, when they failed to convert a stoppage time penalty.
They’re now 5-2-4 in their last 11. Losses to Morocco, Algeria, Senegal and Tunisia aren’t terrible defeats. Neither is getting wins in 5/11. Historically they’ve been poor in AFCON, with just 1 win from their last 10 tournament games.
Nigeria (Super Eagles)
38th in FIFA Rankings.
Their current form has seen some higher scoring games. On Matchday 1, Ajayi and Lookman scored to pace them to a 2-1 win over Tanzania, while also seeing them put up 16 shots and 9 on target. Osimhen had 7 shots/3 on target.
On MD2 they were drawn with Tunisia 0-0 until the 44′ when Osimhen broke open the scoring. With goals in the 50′ and 67′ from Ndidi and Lookman, they were cruising at 3-0. But then conceded 1 back in the 74′ and a PK in the 87′ to need to hang on for the 3-2 win.
They lost to Egypt 2-1 in a friendly before the tournament but before that it was a 1-1, 4-1 win, 4-0 win, 2-1 win and 1-1. They’ve scored in 11 straight and in 18/19. BTTS bets are 5-0 and 7-1 as they’ve also conceded in 7/8.
Pick
Nigeria is 4-2-2 all-time in the matchup but the last meeting was 0-0, but back in 2018 in a friendly. With 6 points Nigeria tops Group C and are moving on. But Uganda, 4th with 1 point, need to go for this.
The fact that Nigeria are only +115 to win a matchup they should clearly win, perhaps speaks to the fact they may rotate. And also that they often make games harder for themselves than need be.
- AFCON Picks: Nigeria double chance / to score / under 4.5 (-163)
Tanzania vs Tunisia Preview
Tanzania (Taifa Stars)
112th in FIFA Rankings.
Their first AFCON match saw them score, and was higher-scoring, but ended in defeat losing to Nigeria 2-1. They did push Nigeria, being tied 1-1 in the second half but conceded the winner just 2 minutes after equalizing.
On MD2 they took the lead through a Msuva PK, but saw Uganda tie it in the 80′ for a 1-1 draw. A stoppage time PK save, rescued a point in that game,
Last month they had a wild 4-3 loss to Kuwait in a friendly, but this team usually plays in low-scoring games with the Under 2.5 being 6-2. They’re also winless in their last 8 games, and are still searching for their first trip to the knockouts at AFCON.
Tunisia (Eagles of Carthage)
40th in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they ran out to a 3-0 lead over Uganda with goals from Skhiri and Achouri (2), and only conceded once in stoppage time to win 3-1. They led in shots 16-6 and shots on target 8-1.
Matchday 2 saw them give up 3 goals, and the first 3 goals in a game to Nigeria where they were down 3-0, but fought back with 2 late goals to make things interesting but ultimately lost 3-2, with the 2 goals being their only 2 shots on target. They likely lose midfielder Romdhane, who left that game injured.
But they have only 2 defeats across their last 10 matches, to go with only 4 losses in 13. They’ve also scored in 9/10. The Over/Under has gone 5-3 to Over 2.5 totals of late.
Pick
They’ve only ever played twice, both in 2020 with a 1-0 Tunisia win and a 1-1 draw. A draw is good enough for Tunisia to move on, but may or may not be enough for Tanzania. Tunisia are 2nd in Group C with 3 points and Tanzania 3rd with 1.
Tunisia should win but they don’t need to. They’re big -200 favs. While they shut out all opponents in WCQ, recently, across all comps, they have only 1 clean sheet in 8, making BTTS bets 6-2.
Both teams have seen the BTTS hit in both of their tournament games, and I’ll back that to continue.
- AFCON Picks: Both Teams to Score (+150)
Botswana vs DR Congo Preview
Botswana (The Zebras)
138th in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they were put to the sword vs Senegal losing 3-0 and having 0 shots on target.
On Matchday 2, it was closer and they had 2 shots on target but were again shut out and again lost 1-0 to Benin.
In all comps Botswana has only 1 win 12 games and it was versus Somalia. They’ve also been shut out in 4/5.
DR Congo (Les Leopards)
56th in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1, Bongonda scored early to set up a 1-0 win over Benin. They did have only 38% possession and allowed 11 shot attempts, but just 1 on target. That extended their winning streak in all matches to 6 games.
But on Matchday 2 the streak ended as they drew Senegal 1-1 on Saturday. Both teams had just 2 shots on target and both scored in near succession. First DRC in the 61′ from Bakambu and then then Mane for Senegal in the 69′. Bakambu is now 1 goal away from tying DRC’s all-time record of 22 national goals.
All DRC games are close with Under 2.5 being 7-0 of late. They’ve also scored in 12 straight, but rarely score more than a single goal.
Pick
There’s little history between them with DRC being 2-2-1 and the last meeting being in 2017.
In Group D, DRC are 2nd with 4 points, but tied with Senegal. They could still finish anywhere in the top 3, while Botswana are last with 0 points and guaranteed of going home.
DRC are heavy favorites at -450 so if you think they’ll win, which I do, you’ll have to be creative. Also considering that they rarely blow anyone away. A DRC win t nil is -163, but if you add the Under 3.5 you can bump that to +100.
- AFCON Picks: DR Congo to win to nil and under 3.5 (+100)
Benin vs Senegal Preview
Benin (Les Guepards / The Cheetahs)
92nd in FIFA Rankings.
On Matchday 1 they conceded early to DR Congo in the 16′ minute and that ended up being the only goal of the game and Benin managed just 1 shot on target on 11 shot attempts.
Then in Game 2, it was another tight came, but this time they came out on top of a 1-0 result, beating Botswana with Yohan Roche scoring in the 28′ minute
The Under 2.5 has cashed in 6-3 recent Benin games. Record-wise, in their last 12 they are 4-7-2. More recently, they’re an even 3-0-3 and 4-0-4. The BTTS NO is also 9-0. Obviously with lower-scoring games, they usually haven’t won or lost big. But … this does include heavy losses to Burkina Faso (3-0) and Nigeria (4-0).
Senegal (The Lions of Teranga)
19th in FIFA Rankings.
They’re one of the form teams in the tournament. Their first game was a blowout vs Botswana winning 3-0, with 2 goals from Jackson and another from Ndiaye. They led in possession (68%), shots (22-2) and shots on target (13-0). Sadio Mane had 9/6 of those attempts/shots on target and Jackson 7/5.
Next up was DR Congo in a much closer game with DRC scoring first in the 61′ minute, but Mane levelling them minutes later in the 69′ for a 1-1 draw.
Senegal have won 5/6 and the wins have come by shut out, and in their last 8 games they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 28-3. They’ve also not lost in regulation in 38 overall matches going all the way back to September 2023 which was a friendly. In that time only 4 games ended drawn. It’s been 48 games since their last competitive loss, 1-0 to Uganda in January 2023 in the group stage of the African Nations Championship.
Pick
Senegal is 7-2-1 in this matchup and the 1 loss came way back in 1961. They last played in a friendly in 2024, won by Senegal 1-0. Senegal leads Group D with 4 points, while DRC with 4 (2nd) and Benin 3 points (3rd) are right behind.
Mane has had particular success vs Benin with 5 goal contributions in past matchups.
It should be close, but Senegal should edge out a win. Maybe 1 or 2-0.
- AFCON Picks: Senegal to win / Mane 1+ shot on target / under 3.5 (+115)
AFCON Parlay Best Bet
As always, let’s look to 3 games for a best bet AFCON parlay on Tuesday. We’ll simplify some of the above picks to simply ask DR Congo and Senegal to win, along with Nigeria to score.
- Picks: Nigeria to score / DRC to win / Senegal to win (+111)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
