Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Matchday 2 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for the following games.
AFCON Schedule: Sunday, December 28
- Gabon vs Mozambique
- Equatorial Guinea vs Sudan
- Algeria vs Burkina Faso
- Ivory Coast vs Cameroon
AFCON Picks
Here are today’s best bets for the Africa Cup of Nations in Groups E and F.
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gabon vs Mozambique | Gabon to win and Bouanga 1+ shot attempt | (+100) |
| Equatorial Guinea vs Sudan | Under 2.5 & Nsue 1+ shot on target | (+150) |
| Algeria vs Burkina Faso | Algeria to score / Algeria double chance / under 3.5 match goals | (-125) |
| Ivory Coast vs Cameroon | Under 3.5 & Mbeumo 1+ shot on target | (+115) |
| Parlay Pick | Gabon to score / Algeria to score / Ivory Coast vs Cameroon under 3.5 | (-118) |
Gabon vs Mozambique Preview
Gabon (The Panthers)
78th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in group at 3-1-2, but outscored 9-7.
In World Cup Qualifying: Went 8-1-1, scoring 22 and allowing 9. Were 1 of the best 2nd-place teams so made the playoffs but lost 4-1 to Nigeria.
In 2024 AFCON: DNQ
Current form: Had gone undefeated in 5 before losing to Nigeria in the WCQ Playoff game. It’s now 2 losses in a row though after losing to Cameroon on Matchday 1. Cameroon’s 6′ minute goal proved to be the only goal, despite a spirited Gabon comeback attempt that even saw Pierre-Emerick Abameyang return off the bench earlier than expected. Gabon had 12 shot attempts, but couldn’t break through . Bouanga had 3 shots but 0 on target.
Gabon has firepower and has only failed to score twice in 13 games.
Mozambique (The Mambas)
102nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 3-2-1, scoring 9, allowing 5.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were 6-0-4 but 3rd, so will miss out.
In 2024 AFCON: Were 0-2-1 and didn’t advance.
Current form: On Matchday 1 they hung around with the reigning champs, Ivory Coast and the game was tied until Ivory Coast scored early in the 2nd half. Mozambique did only muster 2 shots on target though and they’ve still never won an AFCON game in this history (16 games total).
Have now only won 1/6 and it was vs Somalia and also have only 2 wins in 10.
Sporting’s Geny Catamo has 2 goals in Portugal and could be involved in player props. On MD1 he had 5 crosses, 3 shots and both of the team’s 2 shots on target.
Pick
Mozambique has only won 2/7 meetings but they haven’t played since 2015 WCQ where both teams won 1-0.
Both teams lost by 1-0 scores to open the tournament. I think Gabon offers just a bit more and Mozambique haven’t won ever in this competition. Prior to Matchday 1, Gabon also hadn’t lost in regulation in 6 games (4-2-0). This is basically a must-win for either both teams with tough tests coming up vs the other top sides in the group on Matchday 3.
- AFCON Picks: Gabon to win and Bouanga 1+ shot attempt
Equatorial Guinea vs Sudan Preview
Equatorial Guinea (Nzalang Nacional / The National Thunder)
97th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 2-2-2 but outscored 8-5.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were 5th in their group and outscored 15-8.
In 2024 AFCON: Won their group at 2-1-0 and then lost 1-0 to Guinea in the Round of 16. The tournament also saw a breakout performance by captain Emilio Nsue who won the Golden Boot with 5 goals. However, this tournament, Nsue, their all-time scorer was an unused sub in Game 1.
Current form: Played 2 friendlies since WCQ ended and lost 2-0 (Madagascar) and won 1-0 (Kenya). Then started off AFCON with a loss, 2-1 Burkina Faso. Despite 3 goals in the game, it was nil-nil most of the way. Then Equatorial Guinea took a red in the 50′ minute, but still scored in the 85′. But they couldn’t hang on conceding twice in stoppage time in the 95′ and 98′ to lose 2-1.
The Under 2.5 is 7-3 in their last 10 and only once in 14 have their been more than 3 goals in one of their games.
Sudan (Falcons of Jediane)
118th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Were 2-2-2, 2nd in their group and outscored 6-4.
In World Cup Qualifying: DNQ, being 3rd in their group 3-4-3, but outscored opponents 8-6.
In 2024 AFCON: DNQ
Current form: It was a tough start to this AFCON, conceding in the opening 2 minutes, being reduced to 10 men in the 39′ and going on to lose 3-0 to Algeria.
They’re now 1-3-7 in regulation. In the Arab Cup group stage they had a 0-0 draw, 2-0 loss and 3-1 loss.
Pick
There are only 2 historical meetings to go by, both won by Equatorial Guinea, 1-0 and 4-1 but back in 2018 and 2019.
Equatorial Guinea were moments away from a draw, while Sudan’s game is hard to judge given they were red carded early on. But then so too were Guinea, so we haven’t seen the full version of either team. The Under 2.5 (-225) is possible, but only in a parlay. A draw (+200) is on the cards, though wouldn’t do that much to help either’s chances of progressing.
If Nsue starts, we can use him to get a shot on target in a low-scoring game.
- AFCON Picks: Under 2.5 & Nsue 1+ shot on target
Algeria vs Burkina Faso Preview
Algeria (Les Fennecs / The Desert Foxes)
35th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Won their group at 5-1-0, outscoring opponents 16-2.
In World Cup Qualifying: Mohamed Amoura led all players in African qualifying scoring 10 goals to go with 4 assists. They also won their group at 8-1-1 and outscoring opponents 24-8.
In 2024 AFCON: Disappointed at 0-2-1 in the groups and not advancing.
Current form: They met Sudan on Matchday 1 and the game quickly went in their favor. Mahrez scored 1 minute in, Sudan took a red in the 39′, and Algeria added 2 more in he second half (another from Mahrez) to win 3-0.
Algeria lost to Sudan in the quarters of the Nations Championship in August and since then they’re 8-3-0 in regulation. Their only loss was in the Arab Cup quarters, drawing UAE 1-1 and losing in PKs.
Burkina Faso (Les Etalons / The Stallions)
62nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Came 2nd in their group at 3-1-2, scoring 10 and conceding 7.
In World Cup Qualifying: Also came 2nd in their group at 6-3-1, scoring 23 and allowing 8, but were not one of the top four best 2nd place teams so their journey came to an end.
In 2024 AFCON: Again were 2nd in their group, 1-1-1, in all low-scoring games 3GF/4GA. Lost to Mail in the Round of 16.
Current form: Since the WCQ games ended, have played in 2 friendlies and won both, by 3-2 and 3-0 scores over Niger and Benin. Then they fought back to win on Matchday 1 in AFCON, 2-1 vs Equatorial Guinea. Despite being a man up from the 50′ minute on, they conceded in first and needed 2 stoppage time goals to win. All the goals in that game came late in the 85′, 95′ and 98′ minutes.
They’ve now won 5 in a row and are 6-1-0 in their last 7 overall games and have scored in 8/10.
Pick
This is historically a close matchup with Algeria leading, but only at 7-6-6. The last 3 are all draws, 2-2, 2-2 and 1-1, including in the 2024 AFCON (2-2) in the group stage.
Given their history of draws (+240) and both teams scoring (+110), and the fact that a draw would give both 4 points and a strong chance of progression, both of those options are enticing.
The edge, slightly goes to Algeria as odds-on favorites (-118) though with 0 losses in 11 and like most AFCON games, seeing over 3 goals is unlikely. Under 3.5 is 18-1. (19-1 if Nigeria and Tunisia end that way too).
- AFCON Picks: Algeria to score / Algeria double chance / under 3.5 match goals (-125)
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Preview
Ivory Coast (Les Elephants)
42nd in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 2nd in their group at 4-0-2, outscoring opponents 12-3.
In World Cup Qualifying: Were almost perfect at 8-2-0, scoring 25 times and allowing 0. They and Tunisia were the only teams to not allow any goals.
In 2024 AFCON: Started slow and were only 3rd in their group but were one of the top 3rd place teams. Then got hot and went all the way to the final, beating Nigeria 2-1.
Current form: A 1-0 win on Matchday 1 got the champs off on the right foot with Amad Diallo scoring in the 49′ against Mozambique. They had 56% possession, and led in shots 15-3 and shots on target 5-2.
In their last 8 games have only lost a friendly to Saudi Arabia 1-0. Oddly, win, lose, or draw, it’s rare that both teams score. The BTTS No is 14-0. The Under 2.5 is 9-2.
Cameroon (The Indomitable Lions)
57th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: 1st in their group at 4-2-0, outscoring opponents 8-2.
In World Cup Qualifying: Went 5-4-1, scoring 17, allowing 5 and finished 2nd. That sent them to the playoff where they lost 1-0 to DR Congo.
In 2024 AFCON: Went 1-1-1 to be 2nd in their group, and then lost 2-0 to Nigeria in the Round of 16.
Current form: Have only lost 2/18, Under 2.5 is 6-1 and BTTS rarely hits with the ‘No’ going 6-0 and 8-2.
All of those trends continued on Matchday 1 where Etta Eyong’s 6′ minute goal stood up as the only goal in a 1-0 win over Gabon. Man U’s Mbeumo had an assist, plus 1 shot/ 1 shot on target.
Pick
It’s nearly split between them at 10-2-9 for Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast has won 3/4 but Cameroon won the last match 1-0 in WCQ in 2021.
With both teams looking solid and the BTTS No being a moneymaker for both they look hard to split. BTTS NO (-175) or Draw (+200). Alternatively, you could create a SGP with Under 3.5 and some player shot props. If you pick Mbeumo or Eyong it will come out to (+115).
- AFCON Picks: Under 3.5 & Mbeumo 1+ shot on target (+115)
AFCON Parlay Best Bet
Let’s simplify 3 of those 4 above games into a 3-game parlay for Sunday. We’ll ask for each of Gabon and Algeria to score, plus under 3.5 goals between what looks like a tightly-contested Ivory Coast vs Cameroon match.
- Picks: Gabon to score / Algeria to score / Ivory Coast vs Cameroon under 3.5 (-118)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
