Africa’s biggest tournament is here and we’re covering AFCON picks, parlays and best bets all tournament long. Read on for our Matchday 1 Africa Cup of Nations predictions for the following games.
AFCON Schedule: December 21-22
- Morocco vs Comoros
- Mali vs Zambia
- South Africa vs Angola
- Egypt vs Zimbabwe
AFCON Picks
Here are today’s best bets for the Africa Cup of Nations in Groups A and B.
| Match | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco vs Comoros | MOR win to nil & score over 1.5 goals | (-110) |
| Mali vs Zambia | MAL to win & Toure 1+ shot on target | (+110) |
| South Africa vs Angola | Draw | (+175) |
| Egypt vs Zimbabwe | Eqypt to win & under 3.5 goals & Salah 1+ shot on target | (+105) |
| PARLAY | MOR win / SA vs ANG under 3.5 / EGP win | (+109) |
Morocco vs Comoros Preview
Morocco (Atlas Lions)
11th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: The hosts rolled through their qualifying group last year winning all 6 games by a combined score of 26-2. Brahim Diaz led all players with 7 goals, though recently, he’s not done much with Real Madrid. On the downside, captain Achraf Hakimi looks to be injured to start the tournament. So too is Amrabat and Hamza.
In World Cup Qualifying: They were also a perfect 8-0-0 and outscored opponents 22-2. The first time an African team has been perfect in WCQ qualifying. And if we look back to the 2022 World Cup they went all the way to the semis.
In the 2024 AFCON: While they also went undefeated in the Group Stage at the last tournament at 2-1-0, their time in the knockouts was short-lived, losing 2-0 to South Africa. While they’re favored to go far and are the outright favorites to win the title, they haven’t won AFCON since the 1976.
Current form: Morocco actually had another big game to play this week before AFCON, playing the UAE in the Arab Cup Semifinals on Monday where they won 3-0. That set up an intense final on Thursday vs Jordan which went back and forth and saw them tied 2-2, in a game that needed extra-time to see Morocco crowned the winners 3-2. Hamdallah got the winner and scored a brace.
They’ve now gone undefeated in 17 overall matches, with just 3 of those games ended drawn in regulation. In 16/17 and 29/31 games they’ve scored. They’ve also kept clean sheets in 10/12.
Comoros (Los Coelacanthes)
108th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Went undefeated at 3-3-0 in mostly low-scoring games scoring 7 and allowing 4 and winning Group A.
In World Cup Qualifying: They weren’t as successful in WCQ winning 5 and losing 5 to finish 4th in their group.
In the 2024 AFCON: They were not in the last edition of this tournament. But in 2021, they made it to the Round of 16.
Current form: After a 4-4 draw with Yemen in Arab Cup, they won in PKs to make it to the Group Stage this fall, but then went winless in 3 games losing 3-1, 3-1 and 2-1.
Pick
Morocco has never lost against this opponent at 3-1-0 and these teams actually just met earlier in the month in the FIFA Arab Cup Group Stage, won 3-1 by Morocco. On the road, away to the hosts, against an opponent they’ve been poor against, plus having now given up 12 goals in 4 games, does not make for a great feeling heading into AFCON.
19 times the host nation has kicked off the AFCON with a win and that should continue here and continue easily. No host has lost the opening game since 1998 and 6 have in the history of the tournament. There’s a chance Morocco could face some fatigue from just playing a long Arab Cup Final, but I’ll still back them to win. It’s hard to find value unless you bet by more than 2 goals, so let’s bet them to keep a clean sheet.
- AFCON Picks: Morocco to win to nil and to score over 1.5 goals (-110)
Mali vs Zambia Preview
Mali (Les Aigles)
54th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Mali topped their qualifying group without losing at 4-2-0, scoring 10 and allowing just 1 goal.
In World Cup Qualifying: Mail missed out on qualifying by being 3rd in their group behind Ghana and Madagascar at 5-3-2.
In the 2024 AFCON: In the last AFCON they won their group but with only 1 win at 1-2-0. From there they beat Burkina Faso in the Round of 16, before losing to eventual champs Ivory Coast 2-1 in the quarterfinals
Current form: In all comps they come in with decent form at 3-1-1. The BTTS bet rarely hits in Mali games, with both teams scoring only once in their last 13 games. Under 2.5 is 5-2 and oddly despite lower-scoring games they’ve only drawn 1/10.
One of Mali’s key players could miss out in Tottenham’s Bissouma. But their top man up top should be Besiktas’ Toure. He’s got 2G/2A in his last 3 games and just had 6 shots on target 2 games back.
Zambia (Chipolopolo)
90th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Edged out Ivory Coast for 1st in the group at 4-1-1, scoring 7 and allowing just 4 goals.
In World Cup Qualifying: They won’t be at the World Cup after being 4th in their group at 3-0-5. That cost their coach his job, so they have a new man, former CB Moses Sichone.
In the 2024 AFCON: Failed to get out of their group going winless at 0-2-1.
Current form: Their last match a friendly 3-1 loss to South Africa last month and they’ve now won only 1/11 games in all matches. But recent scores have been close at: 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 3-1.
Daka is the man to watch up top for player props with 21 goals in 48 caps.
Pick
The teams haven’t played since 2022, won 1-0 by Mali and other meetings weren’t that recent. Mali comes in with far better form, and while it may be close, I’ll tip them to win again.
- AFCON Picks: Mail to win and Toure 1+ shot on target (+110)
South Africa vs Angola Preview
South Africa (Bafana Bafana)
61st in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Went undefeated in qualifying at 4-2-0, scoring 16 and allowing only 5.
In World Cup Qualifying: Won their group at 5-3-2, scoring 15 and allowing 9.
In the 2024 AFCON: Were 2nd in their group, then went on to beat Morocco and Cape Verde in the knockouts, before losing in the semis in PKs to Nigeria.
Current form: Bafana Bafana will come into AFCON as one of the form teams right now being undefeated in 9 games (4-5-0). But … their last loss, back in June, came to this opponent, losing 3-0 to Angola in the COSAFA Cup. Still, that’s their only loss in 14 games.
Burnley’s Lyle Foster is one of the bigger names, and he has 2 goals in the EPL this year. MLS fans, can watch CB Mbokazi who is set to join the Chicago Fire after the tournament. Meanwhile, keeper Williams was last tournament’s Golden Glove winner and is the captain of the team.
Angola (Palancas Negras)
89th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Went 4-2-0 and won their group in low-scoring games, scoring 7 and allowing only 2.
In World Cup Qualifying: Had a poor WCQ campaign at 2-6-2, piling up draws and finishing 4th in their group.
In the 2024 AFCON: Won their group and beat Namibia in the Round of 16, before losing to Nigeria in the quarters. Dala was one of the tournament’s top scorers with 4 goals, putting him 2nd in Golden Boot scoring.
Current form: They last played in a friendly vs Argentina in November and lost 2-0. That’s not a fair comparison to the teams they’ll be facing in AFCON. Since then, they played this week in another friendly vs Mozambique and won 4-1. Still, their confidence won’t be that high having won only 2/7 games, with the other vs Mauritius (176th ranked).
Pick
Prior to the game in June at COSAFA, in other recent meetings, they played 3 times in 2022, a 1-1 friendly draw and 4-1 and 2-0 wins for Angola in the African Nations Championship. Of every single Matchday 1 game, this is the tightest lined game with the draw set at +175.
Both teams have drawn a fair amount of games and look hard to split so let’s look for a draw here. If that’s too risky, another option, given they’ve not lost in 9 would be South Africa double chance & under 2.5 goals.
- AFCON Picks: Draw (+175) / OR South Africa double chance & under 2.5 (-115)
Egypt vs Zimbabwe Preview
Egypt (The Pharaohs)
34th in FIFA Rankings and AFCON’s winningest team with 7 titles.
In Qualifying: Won their group at 4-2-0, scoring 12 and allowing only 2 goals.
In World Cup Qualifying: Easily qualified to go to Canada-USA-Mexico, winning their group at 8-2-0, scoring 20 and allowing just 2 goals.
In the 2024 AFCON: Was a disappointing last AFCON drawing all 3 games in the group stage, then drawing again in the Round of 16 vs DR Congo and losing in PKs.
Current form: Had a warm-up game this week and vs a strong opponent in Nigeria and won 2-1. They weren’t good in the Arab Cup with a 1-1 draw, 1-1 draw and 3-0 loss, not advancing out of the groups. But in their last 22 games in all comps, they have only 2 losses. That 3-0 to Jordan (Arab Cup finalists) and a friendly to Uzbekistan. Only 3 times in 38 games have they not scored. But, this last friendly vs Nigeria is the only time in 7 games they’ve scored more than 1 goal.
They’ll be expected to go far in AFCON with the likes of Liverpool’s Salah and Man City’s Marmoush.
Zimbabwe (Warriors)
129th in FIFA Rankings.
In Qualifying: Came 2nd behind Cameroon at 2-3-1, scoring only 6 goals but also allowing only 4.
In World Cup Qualifying: Had a disastrous WCQ campaign at 0-5-5, outscored 12-5 and finishing last in their group.
In the 2024 AFCON: DNQ.
Current form: Zimbabwe will be heavy underdogs in this match and they won’t come in with good form either. They won a friendly over Qatar 2-1 last month but in all matches are 1-1-4 and outscored 7-3. The Under 2.5 is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Some players to consider in props are Bonne and Dube.
Pick
They haven’t met since 2019 and Egypt has won the last 6, while Zimbabwe hasn’t won since 1995. That should continue here but possibly in a lower-scoring fashion.
- AFCON Picks: Egypt to win & under 3.5 & Salah 1+ shot on target (+105)
AFCON Parlay Best Bet
Despite all the research, until you see the teams in action in tournament play, it can be tough to predict who gets hot and who starts slow. So let’s create dumbed down version of the straights bets, into 1 parlay as well.
- Picks: Morocco win / South Africa vs Angola under 3.5 / Egypt win & Salah 1+ shot on target (+109)
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Ryan MΓ©tivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
