We’ve reached NFL Week 12. As usual, I’m targeting 4 different games for this week’s NFL Week 12 predictions.
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Chiefs vs Panthers Prediction
This should be the free square on the bingo card this week. The 9-1 Chiefs playing the 3-7 Panthers.
KC had a 15-game winning streak going until last week’s 30-21 loss in Buffalo. Which is likely bad news for the Panthers who were always going to be massive underdogs here. Maybe, the Chiefs would’ve looked past them, but after a rare loss they should come in focused.
At 11-points though on the Chiefs vs Panthers spread, I won’t be betting that.
The Chiefs rarely win big, Mahomes has a losing record ATS as a favorite and has never won as a road double-digit favorite in his career.
Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard is 4th in rush yards this season so the run game is likely to be leaned on, but then the Chiefs are 3rd against the run.
It could be worth targeting some TE props for either team here. The Panthers have given up the joint-most TDs to opposing TEs (7), alongside the Bengals and Raiders. They’ve also given up the 10th-most yards to TEs too.
The Chiefs are actually much worse allowing the 2nd-most catches and the most yards. But then Carolina barely uses their TEs with Ja’Tavion Sanders leading the position averaging just 2.6 catches per game.
With all that said, I just want a simple Chiefs moneyline for my NFL picks.
- NFL Week 12 Predictions: Chiefs moneyline
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction
Dallas has allowed starting from Week 1 til now point totals of 17, 44, 28, 15, 17, 47, 30, 27, 34 and then 34 again on MNF in a 34-10 loss to Houston.
The 17, 15 and 17 were against the Browns, Giants and Steelers, all weaker offenses and earlier in the season.
The Commanders have scored 20, 21, 38, 42, 34, 23, 40, 18, 27, 27 and 18 points. So they’ve hit the 20-mark in 9/11 games.
Now 1 did come last game in a 26-18 loss in Philly, but was last Thursday. That gives them a ton of extra rest as Dallas just played on MNF.
The Cowboys are littered with injuries coming off that game. As of Friday, 3 defensive starters are questionable and 5 on the offense, including WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson who left with a concussion last game.
Washington are big 10-point favs here on the spread, the first time since 2000 they’re double-digit favs over Dallas. Instead of that, I’ll bet them to score Over 19.5 points. Dallas smashed them 45-10 and 38-10 last season but this should be a good spot for Washington to win with Dallas now losers of 5 straight and out Dak Prescott.
Additionally, you could target some reception totals for Commanders players too. Terry McLaurin only had 1 catch last week, but he’s caught multiple passes in each of the previous 10 games and 4+ in 8/11.
At TE, Zach Ertz is an option too. Dallas has not given up a ton against opposing TEs but Ertz had 6 catches last week, 4+ in 5/6 and multiple catches in 10/11.
Some simple selections for this same-game parlay (SGP) would be McLaurin and Ertz to each catch 2+. Versus the Texans 8 different players caught a pass and 7 of them had multiple catches. TE Dalton Schultz led them all with 5.
- NFL Week 12 Predictions: Commanders Over 19.5 points / McLaurin 2+ catches / Ertz 2+ catches
Lions vs Colts Prediction
It’s been a streaky season for the Colts starting 0-2, then going 4-1, followed by a winless 0-3 and then finally last week’s narrow 28-27 last minute 28-27 win over the Jets.
The Jets offense ranks a woeful 26th in PPG averaging 18.5 and they put up 27 vs the Colts.
That could be a problem vs the league’s top offense of the Lions, averaging 33.6 PPG and who just blasted the Jags 52-6. Jared Goff rebounded after a 5-interception game vs the Texans and went 24-29 for 412 yards and 4 TDs and even got some time off as Hendon Hooker got a few throws near the end with the result guaranteed.
Goff has thrown a TD pass in every game but 1 this season and has thrown multiple TDs in 7 of his past 8.
Defensively, the Lions are seeing injuries pile up and now lost play-caller and MLB Alex Anzalone.
The main injury for the Colts is LT Bernhard Raimann who looks set to miss out.
Indy has already seen the Texans score 29 on them, Steelers 24, Jaguars 37, Texans again with 23, Vikings 21 and also the Bills with 30 put up decent point totals against them.
While Anthony Richardson had a good game last week going 20-30, 272 yards and 1 TD, his best skill right now is running and the Lions rank 5th against the run.
Detroit is 41-15 ATS over the last 3 years but something tells me this may be closer than it looks. Indy has seen 10/11 games decided by just 1 score, the most in the league. And are 16-11-1 ATS under Shane Steichen.
- NFL Week 12 Predictions: Lions +4.5 / Over 1.5 TDs / Goff 1+ passing TD
Cardinals vs Seahawks Prediction
The 5-5 Seahawks host the division-leading 6-4 Cardinals who are fresh coming off a bye.
Seattle has not been a good ATS bet at home. Since the beginning of last year Geno Smith is 3-10 ats at home, which is the worst mark of anyone and then this season the Hawks are a woeful 1-5 ATS as a team.
Both teams have healthy offenses here with only TE Noah Fant questionable for Seattle, while WR DK Metcalfe returned last week and caught 7-9 passes for 70 yards vs the 49ers.
Seattle has owned Arizona winning 5 straight and 9/12. Last year the scores were 20-10 and 21-20 and Seattle hasn’t scored fewer than 19 points vs Arizona in any of the last 5 wins.
This season, Seattle has scored 20 or more points in every game except a 31-10 loss to Buffalo. They’ve also given up 20+ points in 7/10 games.
Arizona comes in winners of 4 straight and they’ve scored 31, 29 and 28 points in their last 3 games.
The Cards have completely shut down their last 2 opponents allowing just 6 and 9 points, but those were the Jets and Bears. 6/10 teams this season have scored 20+ vs the Cards.
- NFL Week 12 Predictions: Both Teams Over 1.5 TDs
- Parlay Picks: KC win / DET +4.5 and over 1.5 TDs and Goff 1+ TD / WAS over 19.5 points and McLaurin and Ertz 2+ catches / ARZ vs SEA both over 1.5 TDs (+154)
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Ryan Métivier is a seasoned editor, writer and communications professional with years of experience in all fields. When it comes to covering sports, he’s written for numerous outlets and organizations including the OHL, CHL, SportsXpress, Sports Betting Dime, Cleveland.com, MassLive, FanSided and others.
While he’ll always cheer for his hometown Toronto teams, when it comes to betting, his only allegiance is his bankroll. Ryan specializes in global soccer, the NFL and the NHL, but if there is a bet to be made, he’ll make it. As the founder of Shred The Spread, Ryan focuses on combining storylines, trends, analytics and good bankroll management to creating simple bets that make sense.
When not making a case for why both teams will score in an MLS soccer match, he can be found focusing his efforts on fitness, attempting to learn Spanish, cooking or planning his travel adventure.
